How to Read Commodity Futures Data: OI, Rollover & Basis Explained

Key Takeaways

• Open Interest (OI) shows trader participation and trend strength.
  
• Rollover reveals how many contracts are carried to next month’s expiry.
  
• Basis measures spot–futures price gap and sentiment.
  
• Together, they help traders spot long/short build-ups in commoditie
• Swastika Investmart provides SEBI-compliant analytics & expert insights for futures traders.

Introduction: Why Commodity Futures Data Matters

Commodity futures trading in India has evolved into a data-driven discipline. Successful traders today don’t just rely on price   they decode Open Interest (OI), Rollover, and Basis to understand market positioning, strength, and sentiment.

Whether you trade on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) or National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), learning to interpret these metrics can transform the way you make decisions.

Let’s break them down in simple terms   and see how brokers like Swastika Investmart help you read them efficiently.

1. What Is Open Interest (OI)?

Open Interest (OI) refers to the total number of outstanding contracts (buy or sell) that remain open in a commodity’s futures market.

• Rising OI means new positions are being built.
  
• Falling OI means traders are closing their positions.
  

In simple words: OI shows how many traders are active and how confident they are in the trend.

Example:
If Crude Oil futures prices rise from ₹6,800 to ₹7,000 and OI also rises, it means new long positions are being added   bullish sentiment.

Swastika Investmart’s live OI trackers and heatmaps help traders identify these patterns in real time across commodities.

2. What Is Rollover in Commodity Futures?

Futures contracts have expiry dates   monthly for most commodities. As expiry nears, traders either square off or roll over their positions to the next month’s series.

Rollover (%) = (Next Month OI / Current Month OI) × 100

A higher rollover percentage shows continuity of conviction traders are carrying their view forward.

Example:
If Gold futures rollover is 85%, it means most traders are confident about the trend continuing in the next month’s contract.

Swastika Investmart’s derivatives dashboard visually compares rollover ratios across series, helping you track where institutional money is flowing.

3. What Is Basis and Why Does It Matter?

Basis = Futures Price – Spot Price

It measures the difference between current futures and spot (cash) prices.

• Positive Basis (Futures > Spot): Bullish tone (cost of carry or storage).
  
  

Negative Basis (Futures < Spot): Bearish tone (weak demand or oversupply).

Example:
If Copper spot = ₹720 and Futures = ₹730, basis = +₹10 → bullish undertone.
If Futures = ₹710 → basis = –₹10 → bearish tone or oversupply.

4. Combining OI, Rollover, and Basis for Better Analysis

Smart traders don’t look at these metrics in isolation  they combine all three to read the full market picture.

5. SEBI’s Role in Safeguarding Commodity Traders

SEBI (Securities and Exchange Board of India) ensures commodity futures trading remains transparent and regulated through:

• Margin requirements to control leverage risk.
  
• Daily mark-to-market (MTM) settlement.
  
• Position limits to avoid excessive speculation.
  
• Real-time data disclosure for OI, rollover, and basis via MCX/NCDEX.
  

Swastika Investmart’s trading systems follow all SEBI guidelines, ensuring traders have safe, compliant access to futures data.

6. AI & Analytics in Reading Commodity Data

The future of commodity analysis is AI-enhanced.

Modern platforms now use machine learning to analyze OI spikes, basis fluctuations, and rollover trends.
AI tools can even predict probable breakouts in commodities like Gold, Crude, or Copper by studying patterns across contracts.

FAQs

1. What does Open Interest indicate in commodity futures?
It shows total open contracts   rising OI means new positions (bullish or bearish), falling OI means closure or unwinding.

2. How can rollover help traders?
Rollover reveals how many traders carry positions to the next month, reflecting conviction in the trend.

3. What does basis tell us?
Basis shows whether futures are trading at a premium or discount to spot   indicating market sentiment.

4. How is SEBI involved in commodity futures?
SEBI regulates all trading activity, margins, and reporting standards to ensure transparency and investor protection.

5. How does Swastika Investmart help commodity traders?
Swastika offers real-time analytics, AI-integrated insights, and SEBI-compliant execution, helping traders decode OI, rollover, and basis effectively.

Conclusion

Reading commodity futures data is the art of understanding what the market is thinking   not just what the price is doing.
By tracking Open Interest, Rollover, and Basis, you gain insights into trader psychology, institutional positioning, and upcoming trends.

And when you trade through Swastika Investmart, you combine that insight with research-backed data, advanced dashboards, and SEBI-regulated safety.

In the AI-driven era of 2025, data isn’t just information  it’s your competitive advantage.

👉 Open your Demat & Trading Account with Swastika Investmart — trusted SEBI-registered broker with expert research, powerful tools, and dedicated customer support.