Takeaways
- Global markets ended on a cautious note with US indices closing lower.
- FII and DII were net sellers in cash segment, keeping sentiment fragile.
- Nifty has broken an important swing low, signaling continued weakness.
- Bank Nifty is hovering near 100-DMA support, crucial for near-term trend.
Global Cues Set a Cautious Tone
The trading day begins with mixed to negative global signals. US markets closed in the red with the Dow Jones slipping by 179 points. Dow futures are also trading lower, hinting at risk-off sentiment. Asian markets are reflecting similar caution and GIFT Nifty is indicating a marginal decline of around 5 points.
Such global softness often influences early Indian market momentum, especially when domestic technical structure is already fragile.
What the Data Is Telling Us
Institutional flows remained negative. Foreign Institutional Investors sold around ₹588 crore, while Domestic Institutions offloaded ₹683 crore, taking the combined figure to ₹1,271 crore on the sell side. Persistent outflows explain the lack of follow-up buying in recent sessions.
In derivatives, the picture is mixed. Nifty PCR has slipped to 0.59 from 0.90, showing rising caution. Highest open interest for the 03 Feb series stands at 26000 Call and 24000 Put, while max pain is placed near 25300. India VIX jumped to 15.10, up almost 12.9%, indicating higher volatility expectations.
FII activity in index derivatives shows aggressive addition in call shorts and put longs, suggesting hedging against further downside.
Technical View on Nifty
The benchmark has broken the previous swing low of 24919, confirming that bears remain in control. Momentum indicators are pointing to lack of strength and every bounce is being sold into.
- Immediate support lies between 24575 and 24500.
- Below this, the next demand area emerges around 24330–24200.
- On the upside, the 24900–25000 zone is expected to act as a stiff resistance.
Traders should avoid aggressive bottom fishing until a clear reversal pattern forms. Risk management remains the key.
Technical View on Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty closed below the critical 58500 mark. The 58000 level, which coincides with the 100-DMA, is an important line in the sand.
- A break below 58000 can drag the index towards 57000.
- Resistance is placed around 58700 and 59400 on any recovery.
Private banking heavyweights will decide the next directional move. Participants should track PSU banks separately as they are showing relatively better resilience.
How Should Investors Approach This Market
Volatile phases test patience. Instead of chasing momentum, investors should focus on quality businesses with earnings visibility. Systematic investing and staggered buying work better than emotional trades.
Derivative traders need to respect stop losses as VIX expansion can trigger sharp intraday swings. Hedging portfolios through options strategies can help reduce risk.
Role of Research in Uncertain Times
Market set-ups like these highlight why disciplined research matters. Understanding open interest trends, institutional flows, and technical levels gives an edge over random decision making. Swastika Investmart combines SEBI-registered research, robust technology, and dedicated support to help investors navigate such phases with clarity.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. What is the key level to watch on Nifty now?
The immediate support is 24575–24500. A sustained move below this may open 24330–24200.
2. Why did volatility rise sharply?
India VIX jumped after institutional selling and weak global cues, signaling fear of further downside.
3. What does low PCR indicate?
A PCR near 0.59 shows higher put unwinding and call writing, reflecting cautious sentiment.
4. Is Bank Nifty at a crucial support?
Yes, 58000 around the 100-DMA is a critical level for short-term trend.
Final Thoughts
The current market set-up calls for caution rather than aggression. Global weakness, FII outflows, and technical breakdown suggest traders should prioritize capital protection. Opportunities will emerge, but only for those who stay disciplined and informed.
At Swastika Investmart, investors benefit from strong research tools, investor education, and tech-enabled platforms designed for all market conditions.
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