The company has a good track record of execution built on its proprietary technology and has scaled up significantly since its incorporation in 2011 to emerge as the largest fully-integrated logistics player in the country.
The runway of opportunity also appears good given India’s long-term growth prospects and the crucial role logistics plays when it comes to commerce. Another point to note is that, in India, the share of organized players is much lower compared to developed countries.
It reported revenue from operations of ₹4,811 crores for the nine months ended December 21. Annualizing this implies a very strong FY19-22 revenue CAGR of around 57 per cent.
However, the high growth of the company is due to the acquisitions made, organic growth has been slower in comparison to overall growth. The company does not have a past track record of profitability given its focus on growth.
While it has reached near break-even on an adjusted EBITDA basis for nine-month FY22 (adjusted EBITDA margin of negative 0.72%), the profitability at net profit levels is yet to be seen and depends on a lot of variables in the future. Investors need to note that the logistics business is a low-margin business and the scale of operation determines the profitability due to operating leverage.
Nevertheless, the current market environment is not conducive to aggressive risk-taking when it comes to unprofitable companies.
The issue is priced at a Price to Sales ratio of 5.4 (based on annualized revenues of 9 months ending December 2021). We suggest investors enter the company post listing after analyzing how the business evolves in terms of revenue growth and profitability. Thus, we recommend “Avoid” the issue.
COMPARISON WITH LISTED INDUSTRY PEERS (AS OF 31ST MARCH 2021)
Name of the CompanyEPS (Basic)NAVP/ETotal Income (Cr)RoNW (%)Delhivery(8.05)54.79*●+38,382.91(14.66)Peer GroupBlue Dart Express Ltd42.91249.48150.3732,923.6017.08TCI Express Ltd26.15112.8966.888,516.4023.12Mahindra Logistics Ltd4.1679.65119.3932,811.905.05
Particulars (Rs. In Millions)FY 2021FY 2020FY 2019Equity Share Capital16.339.759.58Other Equity27,997.6531,302.5933,481.53Net Worth28,367.9731,704.0633,882.83Revenue from Operations36,465.2727,805.7516,538.97EBITDA(1,370.71)(1,720.47)(1,003.79)Loss Before Tax(4,157.43)(2,688.02)(17,833.04)Net Loss for the year(4,155.37)(2,679.61)(17,837.63)
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