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Market Set-Up Today 31 December 2025: Global Cues, FII Flow & Technical Outlook
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Quick Market Summary
- Global markets remain mixed with US indices ending lower
- FIIs continue selling while DIIs provide strong support
- Nifty shows short-term weakness below 20-DMA
- Bank Nifty trades sideways within key moving averages
Market Context as We Head into 31 December 2025
As Indian markets approach the final trading session of the year on 31 December 2025, investors are navigating a mix of global uncertainty, derivative expiry-related noise, and technically sensitive index levels. With liquidity thinning toward year-end, even modest cues are having an outsized impact on sentiment.
The focus today remains on global market signals, institutional flows, and critical support and resistance zones for benchmark indices.
Global Markets Overview
Overnight global cues were mixed and slightly cautious in nature.
US markets ended lower, with the Dow Jones declining by 94 points, reflecting mild risk-off sentiment. Dow futures are currently trading flat, down around 13 points, indicating a lack of strong directional bias.
Asian markets are trading on a mixed note, suggesting cautious participation from global investors. Meanwhile, GIFT Nifty is up by around 10 points, hinting at a mildly positive to flat opening for Indian equities.
Overall, global cues suggest a neutral to cautious start rather than a decisive trend.
Institutional Activity and Cash Market Data
Institutional flows remained active despite low volumes.
- Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs): Net sellers worth ₹3,844 crore
- Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs): Net buyers worth ₹6,160 crore
- Net institutional inflow: Positive at ₹2,316 crore
The data highlights continued selling pressure from foreign investors, which has been a recurring theme in recent sessions. However, strong domestic participation is providing a cushion to the market, preventing sharper corrections.
This divergence reinforces the growing role of domestic capital in stabilizing Indian equities during global uncertainty.
F&O and Volatility Indicators
Derivative indicators present a mixed picture, influenced heavily by monthly expiry dynamics.
- Nifty PCR: 0.92 compared to the earlier 0.68
- India VIX: 9.68, down 0.44 percent
A PCR near 1 suggests a balanced derivatives setup with no extreme bullish or bearish positioning. The low India VIX indicates subdued volatility expectations, which is typical during year-end sessions.
The highest open interest for the 06 January 2026 expiry is concentrated at 26000 CE and 26000 PE, with Max Pain also placed at 26000. This suggests that the index may gravitate toward this level in the near term unless a strong trigger emerges.
FII Positioning in Index Derivatives
FII activity in index derivatives shows large reductions across segments:
- Futures long positions reduced
- Futures short positions increased
- Significant unwinding in both call and put positions
However, this data should be interpreted cautiously. Due to monthly F&O expiry, the changes in contract numbers do not provide a clear directional signal. Such shifts are common during rollover periods and may not reflect fresh conviction.
Technical Outlook for Nifty 50
From a technical standpoint, Nifty Spot is showing signs of short-term weakness.
The index has slipped below its 20-day moving average, indicating loss of immediate momentum. A strong demand zone is placed between 25,800 and 25,900, where buying interest may emerge if the index dips further.
On the upside, 26,000 to 26,055 will act as a crucial resistance zone. Any pullback toward this area is likely to face selling pressure unless supported by strong volumes.
Technical Outlook for Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty Spot is currently trading in a sideways range.
The index is oscillating between its 20-DMA and 50-DMA, reflecting indecision among traders. A strong support zone is placed between 58,700 and 58,500, which remains critical for maintaining the current structure.
On the upside, 59,200 to 59,500 is the immediate resistance band. A breakout above this zone could signal renewed strength, while failure may extend consolidation.
What This Means for Traders and Investors
For short-term traders, today’s setup calls for caution. With low volatility and expiry-related adjustments, false breakouts are possible. Trading with strict stop-losses and respecting technical levels becomes essential.
For investors, the broader trend remains intact, supported by strong domestic participation. Consolidation phases like this often offer opportunities to accumulate quality stocks gradually rather than chasing momentum.
SEBI guidelines continue to emphasize disciplined investing, especially during periods of low liquidity and event-driven volatility.
How Swastika Investmart Helps You Navigate Such Markets
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Frequently Asked Questions
How will global markets impact Indian markets today?
Mixed global cues suggest a cautious to flat opening, with limited directional clarity.
Why are FIIs selling while DIIs are buying?
FIIs remain cautious due to global uncertainty, while DIIs continue to support domestic markets based on long-term fundamentals.
Is Nifty weak below the 20-DMA?
Yes, slipping below the 20-DMA signals short-term weakness, though strong support lies near 25,800–25,900.
Why is F&O data less reliable today?
Monthly expiry causes position rollovers, making derivatives data less indicative of fresh market direction.
What levels should traders watch today?
For Nifty, watch 25,800 support and 26,055 resistance. For Bank Nifty, support lies near 58,500 and resistance near 59,500.
Final Word
The market set-up for 31 December 2025 reflects a cautious, data-driven environment marked by mixed global cues, institutional divergence, and technically sensitive index levels. As the year concludes, discipline, patience, and informed decision-making remain key.
To trade or invest with confidence backed by research and technology, consider opening an account with Swastika Investmart.
Stay informed. Trade smart. Invest with confidence.
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