United Spirits Share Price Outlook Amid Maharashtra Headwinds

Nidhi Thakur

July 19, 2026

Key Takeaways

United Spirits faces near term margin pressure from higher A&P spend and cost pressures while expanding premium portfolios.
End of FY26 ad spend rose to Rs 1,295 crore from Rs 1,128 crore in FY25.
Radico Khaitan ad spend is Rs 279 crore in FY26, with total revenue Rs 6,050 crore (4.6% ad spend).
EBITDA is forecast at Rs 4,448 crore (down 2% YoY) with an EBITDA margin of 16.8%, and PAT at Rs 3,152 crore (up 2% YoY).

Investors tracking united spirits share price are watching a delicate balance between premiumisation and regulatory headwinds. United Spirits faces a near-term challenge in Maharashtra, where a steep excise duty hike and the rise of Maharashtra Made Liquor complicate pricing and competitive dynamics. Yet the company is pushing its premium portfolio to offset near-term margin pressure, a strategy that increasingly resonates with analysts and retailers alike.

United Spirits Share Price Outlook After Q1 Earnings And Maharashtra Headwinds

In its latest forecast and commentary, UNSL management signals margin pressure from higher A&P and packaging costs. End of FY26 sales and promotional spending rose to Rs 1,295 crore, up from FY25 Rs 1,128 crore. The EBITDA forecast stands at Rs 4,448 crore, down 2% year-on-year, with a margin of 16.8%. PAT is forecast at Rs 3,152 crore, up 2% year-on-year. The market cap is over Rs 1 lakh crore.

Additionally, the near-term Maharashtra headwinds have sharpened pricing dynamics, with state-level excise duty actions and the Maharashtra Made Liquor introduction affecting the bottom end of the portfolio. The management has flagged that the spillover from these headwinds is likely to influence the first two quarters of FY27, though they expect the worst to be behind them.

Radico Khaitan Stock Price Context: Ad Spend, Revenue And Premiumisation

Radico Khaitan ad spend this year is Rs 279 crore. Its ad spend as a percentage of total revenue FY26 is 4.6%. Radico Khaitan total revenue FY26 is Rs 6,050 crore. UNITED SPIRITS’ income referenced for comparison is Rs 12,448 crore. United Spirits’ ad spend as a proportion of income (compared to Radico Khaitan) is double that proportion of its Rs 12,448 crore income.

Premiumisation trends are not unique to United Spirits; Radico Khaitan’s expenditure surge was over 45% year-on-year from Rs 192 crore in fiscal 2025. JM Financial described the premiumisation trend as a structural shift that will prove to be a key value driver and a tool to navigate an adverse regulatory and inflationary environment. In the push for premium, McDowell’s relaunch featured a new packaging, a new communication campaign, and repositioning to appeal to younger consumers.

Maharashtra Headwinds And The Outlook For FY27

June last year, the Maharashtra government raised the state excise duty on Indian-made foreign liquor (IMFL) by over 50%. The retail price increase associated with that hike was over 60%. Country liquor and imported premium liquor retail prices increased by 14% and over 25%, respectively. UNSL management described Maharashtra as the most "significant near-term challenge" in its FY26 annual report, with the spillover expected to extend into the first two quarters of FY27, but with the worst behind them. Maharashtra Made Liquor is likely to be a bigger hurdle in the state’s market, with 180 ml bottles retailing around Rs 148.

Praveen Someshwar noted that sharp consumer price spikes and the introduction of Maharashtra Made Liquor created additional competitive complexity at the lower end of the portfolio, though evolving consumer preferences and the expansion of the company’s premium portfolio helped offset some of the state’s impact through other markets.

Premiumisation As A Structural Shift: Implications For Investors

The premiumisation trend has been described as a structural shift that will prove to be a key value driver and a tool to navigate an adverse regulatory and inflationary environment. Premiumisation is not unique to United Spirits; Radico Khaitan’s expenditure surge mirrors a broader industry move. The company’s support for premium portfolios is aimed at sustaining margins even as macro headwinds pressure volumes and price competition intensifies. The industry’s push for premium is backed by JM Financial’s view and is an important theme for investors to watch in FY27 and beyond.

For retail investors seeking deeper stock-level insights, Swastika’s Sarthi AI stock assistant provides institutional-grade analyses and data-driven scenarios. Swastika's Sarthi AI stock assistant can help you model risk-adjusted returns across UNSL and peers as regulatory headwinds evolve.

Table: Key FY25 &Amp FY26 Metrics For United Spirits And Radico Khaitan

Metric	FY25	FY26
End of FY Sales & A&P (Rs crore)	Rs 1,128	Rs 1,295
Radico Khaitan Ad Spend	–	Rs 279
Radico Khaitan Total Revenue FY26	–	Rs 6,050 crore
UNSL Income	–	Rs 12,448 crore
Ad Spend as % Of Income (UNSL vs Radico)	–	Double the proportion of UNSL’s income vs Radico
Ebitda Forecast	–	Rs 4,448 crore
Ebitda Margin	–	16.8%
PAT Forecast	–	Rs 3,152 crore

Frequently Asked Questions

What were United Spirits' FY26 ad spend and FY25 ad spend?

FY26 ad spend was Rs 1,295 crore and FY25 ad spend was Rs 1,128 crore.

What is Radico Khaitan's ad spend and total revenue in FY26?

Radico Khaitan ad spend is Rs 279 crore; total revenue FY26 is Rs 6,050 crore.

How did Maharashtra excise duty hikes affect prices in FY26?

The Maharashtra government raised the state excise duty on IMFL by over 50%; the retail price increase associated with that hike was over 60%; country liquor and imported premium liquor retail prices increased by 14% and over 25%, respectively.

What is the MML price for an 180 ml bottle in Maharashtra?

Maharashtra Made Liquor (MML) is around Rs 148 for a 180 ml bottle.

What are UNSL's EBITDA and PAT forecasts for FY26?

EBITDA forecast is Rs 4,448 crore with a margin of 16.8%; PAT forecast is Rs 3,152 crore, up 2% year-on-year.

What is the spillover outlook for FY27 related to Maharashtra headwinds?

Management indicated the impact is expected to spill over into the first two quarters of FY27, with the worst behind them.

Conclusion

In the current environment, retail investors can steer by focusing on quality premium brands, disciplined A&P spend, and a cautious stance on near-term Maharashtra exposure. When the worst overhangs clear in FY27 Q2, the sustainable premiumisation edge could translate into resilient earnings and a more favorable united spirits share price trajectory.

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Reference :

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