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कीमती धातुओं के भाव में पिछले सप्ताह लगातार गिरावट होती रही, लगभग तीन महीनों में इसका न्यूनतम स्तर और नवंबर 2020 के बाद से इसमे सबसे गहरी मंदी वाला सप्ताह रहा है। अमेरिकी ट्रेजरी की पैदावार में लगातार होती बढ़त, सोने में निवेश की मांग कम कर रही है। अमेरिकी फ़ेडरल रिज़र्व के डॉलर प्रिंटिंग प्रेस धीरे होने के संकेत से, 10 साल की अमेरिकी ट्रेजरी की पैदावार ऊपर की ओर बढ़ रही है, और यह एक साल के शिखर के करीब है।

आर्थिक गतिविधियाँ बढ़ने से मुद्रास्फीति बढ़ने की सम्भावना है जिससे राहत पैकेज मे कमी की जा सकती है और कीमती धातुओं के भाव मे मंदी रह सकती है। डॉलर इंडेक्स में रुख तेज़ी का दिखाई पड़ता है। निवेशकों ने पिछले एक सप्ताह में अमेरिका के बेरोज़गारी दावों में अप्रत्याशित वृद्धि को पचाना जारी रखा है और कोवीड के नए मामले मे गिरावट, कीमती धातुओं के भाव मे दबाव बढ़ा रहे है।

इस बीच, गुरुवार को जारी स्विस कस्टम्स के आंकड़ों में कहा गया है कि भारत को मासिक सोने का निर्यात मई 2019 से अपने उच्चतम स्तर पर है, जबकि चीन और हांगकांग को निर्यात निचले स्तरों पर चल रहा है। पिछले सप्ताह घरेलु वायदा सोना 1400 रुपय टूट कर 46000 प्रति दस ग्राम के निचले स्तरों पर पहुंच गया है। चाँदी वायदा मे भी सप्ताह मे 1000 रुपय प्रति किलो तक की मंदी दर्ज की गई है और इसके भाव 68000 प्रति किलो के करीब रहे है।

तकनीकी विश्लेषण

घरेलु वायदा सोने मे कीमतें 50 दिन के साप्ताहिक औसत के नीचे आ चुकी है और 100 दिन का डेली औसत 200 दिन के डेली औसत के निचे पहुंच गई है जो सोने के भाव मे मंदी का संकेत देता है। सोने मे 47000 रुपय पर प्रतिरोध तथा 45500 पर सपोर्ट है। चाँदी मे 69500 रुपय पर प्रतिरोध और 67000 पर सपोर्ट है।

Mergers and acquisition is a common term you must have heard before. Even if you are surfing the internet, you must have heard about the news of many companies which are going through a process of mergers and acquisition. It happens when two companies decide to combine and form a stronger company. But the question is what is merger and acquisition and how does it affect the stock prices.

As there are several ways in which two companies can combine, one of the most common processes is Mergers and Acquisitions. If two companies want to combine to form a big company, there are numerous reasons behind it: increasing market share, minimizing competition, increasing geographical reach and more.

Although, there are many companies who go into the merger and acquisition process, yet they are still not recognized. This is because either these companies are not big enough to catch the fresh headlines of the news.

Today we will talk about mergers and acquisition and how does it impact stock prices:

What are Mergers and Acquisitions?

Mergers is an act where two companies of similar sizes and structure combine to form a new company. It is important to note that mergers usually happen between the companies which are considered equal in many ways.

There are different types of mergers:

Horizontal Mergers

A horizontal merger refers to a business consolidation between two companies operating in the same sector and selling similar products. A horizontal merger can be done to reduce competition, make more market control and benefit from the economy from the sale.

Vertical Mergers

When two companies provide different supply chain functions including product development/selling cycle for a common good service, then it is known as a vertical merger. For instance, a manufacturing company can vertically merge with a raw material provider to create a bigger company.

Conglomerate

When two or more companies in unrelated business activities merge and create synergy to enhance value, boost performance and save cost. In simpler terms, conglomerates consist of companies that don't have much in common.

Product Extension

In the product extension merger, two companies operating in the same sector and having a similar target audience with the aim of creating a new company with a huge range of products.

Market Extension

When two companies operate in the same sector but different markets come together to form a big company with an objective of a bigger client base and the wider market.

What are Acquisitions?

As mergers are all about the amalgamation of two companies, Acquisitions is, however, initiated by a larger company to absorb the smaller ones. It is a process where one company purchases more than 50 per cent of another company’s shares to gain control of that company.

If a company purchases more than 50% of a target firm’s stock, then the acquirer has a full right to make decisions about the newly acquired assets without the approval of the company’s other shareholders.

The primary reason for the acquisitions of smaller companies by large companies are:

Growth Strategy

When a large company that has reached its full limit of operations, resources, logistics. Then it might start looking at young and promising companies to acquire and incorporate into its revenue stream.

Technological Advantage

In order to get benefits from new technologies, a large company acquires a young and technologically driven one to benefit from new technologies. This is a cost-efficient way to implement new technology in any organization.

Market Expansion

When a company tries to expand its operations, it acquires a small company rather than setting up a new business. By doing so, companies can save a lot of hassle and cost associated with setting up a new business.

Effects of Mergers and Acquisition on Stock Prices

Every merger or acquisition marks a great impact on the stock prices of the participating companies. Here, we will highlight the effects of mergers and acquisitions:

Stock Price Volatility

You may notice high volatility in the stock prices of the companies who are getting involved in mergers and acquisition.

The process of merger and acquisition is quite a long term process where several things need to be taken care of before signing the merger agreement. Many traders and analysts predict the outcome of a company and assess whether the new company post-acquisition will be stronger than the previous one or not. This gives a lot of information to the investors regarding the stock market volatility.

Therefore as an investor, if you invested in the stocks of the companies that are undergoing merger and acquisition, then expect the stock prices to be volatile during the process.

Impact on the Stock Prices of Merging Companies

Stock prices make a huge impact on the companies that are going through the process of mergers and acquisition as it depends on the wide range of factors like macroeconomic factors, market capitalization and more. Usually, when the merging companies are similar in size, profitability and achieve an advantage, experience a hike in the stock prices.

The volatility in stock prices tends to increase in its trading volume which further increases the stock market prices. Once the merger process is complete, the stock prices of the company are generally higher than the price of each underlying company.

Impact of the Stock Prices of the target company (in case of acquisition)

In the case of acquisition, the stock price of the target company increases. The main reason behind this belief is that in an acquisition, the acquiring company pays a premium to acquire the target company.

Here, the investor made a belief that an acquisition takes place only when both the acquirer and acquire benefit from the deal. The acquirer agrees to make a deal if it sees potential in it and the targeted company accepts the deal if the purchased price offered is greater than its current market price.

Impact On the Stock price of the acquiring company

In an acquisition, the market tends to choose favorites. In other words, investors tend to look for winners and losers in the proposed deal. Since the acquiring company is making the purchase, unless the profitability of the deal is not evident to the investors, the stock price of the acquiring company tends to get affected negatively.

This February, the Indian government announced the Union budget which is aka the annual budget for the country. Needless to say, a country’s budget comprises a lot of things that may not be applicable to retail investors.

As a responsible investor, understanding the important aspects of budget is very crucial to know the direction in which the economy is moving and expected to move and the industries/sectors that can work better in the future.

Among all the economic terms, you may frequently hear the term called a fiscal deficit. Today, we will try to understand the concept of fiscal deficit.

Fiscal Deficit: The Definition

The fiscal deficit is termed as the total revenue and total expenditure of the government. In other words, it tells us the total borrowings needed by the government. While calculating the total revenue, borrowings are not included.

The gross fiscal deficit (GFD) is the excess of total expenditure over revenue. Also, Deficit means “shortage”.

Revenue of a Government

For the Indian Government, the primary source of revenue is taxes. Revenue of a government includes corporate tax, income tax, GST, and other taxes incurred from time to time. The other sources of revenue are interest income, disinvestment receipts, dividends.

Expenditure of a Government

There are numerous expenditures a government has to manage such as revenue payment, interest payments and capital expenditure.

How to Calculate Fiscal Deficit?

The calculation of the fiscal deficit is as follows:

Fiscal Deficit = (Revenue Expenditure - Revenue Receipts) + Capital Expenditure - (Recovery of loan + other receipts)

Most of the emerging economies around the world including India, run in a fiscal deficit as the government’s expenditure exceeds government revenue. However, sometimes the reverse is possible.

It is important to note that the fiscal deficit does not necessarily mean the country’s economically weak. If the government is spending a lot of capital towards the development of the country such as: constructing airports, highways then the fiscal deficit may be high for that country.

What causes Fiscal Deficit?

The consequences of the fiscal deficit of a country:

• Revenue shortfall
• The rise in the government’s expenditure

In a country like India, where the government has to take care of many aspects regarding the development of a country, there are times when the country needs to take care of more of a certain section of a society which in turn increases the expenditure. Generally, a fiscal deficit of less than 4% of the GDP is considered a healthy economy.

How Does the Government Manage Fiscal Deficit?

Whenever there is a deficit or shortfall, the topmost priority of Indian government is to arrange funds so that it can meet its expenditure. In India, the government manages its deficit by borrowing from numerous sources such as RBI, capital market, public sector banks and more.

Budget 2021 And Fiscal Deficit Targets

Needless to say, this global pandemic and its impact were uncommon. Hence, in order to manage the fallout, many experts believe the Indian government needs to resolve the unexpected measures to manage the fiscal deficit too.

India’s fiscal deficit for the current year will be marked as the highest since liberalization in 1991. According to the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitaraman, the country’s fiscal deficit is settled at 9.5% in 2020-2021 and will be targeted at 6.8 in FY 2021-2022.

Earlier, the central government had determined the fiscal deficit at 3.5% for FY21 before the arrival of Covid 19 crisis. The pandemic put double pressure on the government’s balance sheet which in turn saw a decline in nominal GDP, which brought down tax revenues, and a dire need for higher spending to support the economy.

Hence, the FY21 saw a sharp overshoot of 9.5%. For FY22, the set target is 6% which is the highest since 1994.

Earnings per share is an important metric which is used to identify a company's earnings. It is calculated by dividing a company's profit by its common stock’s outstanding shares. This is considered to be a significant factor as it provides a brief insight into the company’s profitability.

In simple terms, EPS tells how much money a company makes for each share and is primarily used to measure the company's financial health. Increasing EPS reflects higher profitability and vice versa.

How is EPS Calculated?

Here is how EPS is calculated:

EPS = Net Income - Preferred Dividends / End-of-period common shares outstanding

For instance, a company ABC Ltd has a net income of Rs 12 lakh and announces 2 lakh as preferred dividends and has 5 lakh common shares outstanding (weighted average).

Hence the EPS of the company ABC ltd as per earnings per share formula would be:

EPS = Rs (1000000 - 200000)/ 500000

= Rs 2 per share.

You may not know but the company’s balance sheet and income statement are based on EPS calculations. It is recommended to use a weighted average number of outstanding shares as the actual number of shares may vary over a period of time.

It should be noted that the dividends earned on cumulative preferred stocks and non-cumulative preferred stocks affect the EPS results differently. For example, the dividend on cumulative preferred stock for the current period is subtracted from the net income.

Understanding EPS

The EPS is considered as one of the important factors to identify a stock’s price. It is also an essential component used for calculating price to earnings P/E ratio, which measures a company’s value as a factor of its current share price relative to its EPS.

In P/E ratio, the E stands for EPS. If you divide a company’s stock price by its EPS, investors can calculate the share value in terms of how much the stock market can afford to pay for each earned Rupee.

Types of Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Earnings Per Share (EPS) is a key financial metric that indicates a company's profitability on a per-share basis. It is calculated by dividing the net income of the company by the number of outstanding shares. EPS can provide valuable insights for investors and analysts regarding a company’s financial health. Here are the main types of EPS:

1. Basic Earnings Per Share

Basic EPS is the simplest form of EPS calculation. It is determined by dividing the net income available to common shareholders by the weighted average number of outstanding shares during a specific period.

Key Points:

• Basic EPS does not account for convertible securities, options, or other dilutive instruments.
• It is a straightforward measure of profitability per share and is widely used in financial reporting.

2. Diluted Earnings Per Share

Diluted EPS provides a more conservative view of a company’s earnings per share by accounting for the potential dilution that could occur if all convertible securities were exercised. This includes stock options, convertible bonds, and preferred shares.

Key Points:

• Diluted EPS gives investors a better understanding of the earnings potential of a company if all convertible instruments are exercised.
• It’s particularly important for growth companies that might issue stock options to employees or have convertible debt.

3. Adjusted Earnings Per Share

Adjusted EPS is calculated by taking the basic or diluted EPS and adjusting it for one-time items, non-recurring expenses, or extraordinary gains/losses. This provides a clearer picture of ongoing profitability by eliminating noise from irregular items.

Key Points:

• This type of EPS helps investors focus on the core profitability of the company without the effects of unusual items.
• It can be particularly useful for companies undergoing significant changes or restructuring.

Importance of Earnings Per Share

Earnings Per Share is an important indicator for investors and analysts, providing insights into a company's profitability and financial performance. Here are some key reasons why EPS is significant:

1. Measure of Profitability

EPS serves as a direct measure of a company's profitability on a per-share basis. It allows investors to assess how effectively a company is generating profit relative to its outstanding shares. A higher EPS indicates a more profitable company, which can be attractive to investors.

2. Comparative Analysis

EPS is commonly used to compare the profitability of companies within the same industry. Investors often look at the EPS of competing firms to determine which company is more financially robust. This comparison can help in making investment decisions and identifying potential investment opportunities.

3. Investment Valuation

EPS plays a crucial role in calculating other important financial ratios, such as the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. The P/E ratio is calculated by dividing the market price per share by the EPS. This ratio helps investors determine whether a stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its earnings potential, assisting in making smart investment choices.

4. Dividends and Shareholder Returns

Many companies use EPS as a basis for determining dividend payouts. A company with a stable or growing EPS is often more likely to pay dividends, making it attractive for income-focused investors. EPS growth can indicate a company’s ability to return value to its shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.

5. Impact on Stock Price

Investors and analysts closely monitor EPS as it can significantly influence a company's stock price. Positive earnings reports that show an increase in EPS can lead to a rise in stock price, as they may indicate strong financial health and future growth potential. Conversely, a decline in EPS can lead to negative sentiment and a drop in stock prices.

6. Indicator of Future Performance

Trends in EPS over time can provide insights into a company's growth trajectory. Consistent growth in EPS is often viewed as a sign of a company’s ability to generate profits and sustain its business model, making it a key indicator for long-term investors.

Limitations of Earnings Per Share

Although earnings per share are known to be a potential financial tool, investors need to understand that EPS has its share of drawbacks.

Here are the limitations of earnings per share:

• Most business owners can manipulate EPS by minimizing the number of outstanding shares by buying back their shares.
• EPS per share does not capture the performance of a company. However, many such attempts are completely apt for short term which hampers the venture of the business.
• Since EPS does not consider inflation, the growth indicated by it may not be accurate in the first place. For example, the overall price of goods and services also increases.
• Cash flow is an important term when it comes to measuring a company’s ability to repay its debt. However, cash flow is not factored in EPS calculation which means a high EPS may still prove ineffective for gauging a company’s solvency.

Conclusion

Earnings Per Share is a vital financial metric that provides valuable insights into a company’s profitability and financial performance. Understanding the different types of EPS, such as basic, diluted, and adjusted EPS, is crucial for investors when evaluating a company's financial health. Additionally, EPS serves as an essential tool for comparative analysis, investment valuation, and forecasting future performance, making it a key component in the decision-making process for investors.

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Development banks are specialized financial institutions. They provide medium and long-term finance to the industrial and agricultural sector. They do term lending, investment in securities and other activities. They even promote saving and investment habit in the public.

The Narasingham committees aid to perform only the promotional and refinancing role. Specialized development financial institutions (DFIs) such as the IDBI, NABARD, NHB and SIDBI, etc., with majority ownership of the Reserve Bank, were set up to meet the long-term financing requirements of industry and agriculture.

OBJECTIVES

The objective of development banks in the growth of the economy are:

• Increasing capital formation that can contribute towards the growth of economic development.
• Ensure that the investors and entrepreneurs are induced by careful allocation of material and human resources.
• Development activities are undertaken.
• Ensuring that industrial units are promoted in order to fill the gaps in the industry structure. Healthy projects should have enough financial and technical services in order to make the projects work.

FUNCTIONS

• For their financial and social development, the increment advances and investments to its creating partner nations.
• They provide specialized assistance for the arranging and the usage of improvement tasks and programs and for financial advisory services.
• For development, they promote and encourage public and private capital.
• They respond to demands for help with planning development approaches and plans of its expanding nations.

ROLE OF DEVELOPMENT BANKS

1. Providing Funds

The persons who have the capability of starting a business but does not have requisite help approach to financial institutions for help. These institutions help a large number of persons for taking up some industrial activity.

2. Promotional activities

The promotional role of development banks is helpful in increasing the development of a country. They create a new class of entrepreneurs and help the weaker sections of society to be a part of industrial culture. With a view for a long term benefit to social development, banks have new capital schemes which provide financial assistance to the novice entrepreneurs. They help in covering the expense and manpower resources for undertaking the exercise of starting a new unit.

3. Assistance of Backward Units

The development bank encourages rustic and provincial development. They give money to beginning organizations in reverse zones. Likewise, they help organizations which are in the venture in less-developed regions.

4. Employment Generation

Financial institutions have helped both direct and indirect employment generation. They have employed many people in their offices. These institutions help in creating employment by financing new and existing industrial units.

5. Accelerating Industrialization

The setting up of more industrial units will generate direct and indirect employment, make available goods and services in the country and help in increasing the standard of living. Financial institutions provide requisite financial, managerial, technical help for setting up new units.

6. Development of Housing Sector

Development banks provide funding for the development of the housing sector. It refinances banks and financial institutions which provide credit to the housing sector. It promotes and develops housing and financial institutions.

7. Agriculture and Rural Development

It organizes the working of all monetary establishments that give credit to farming and rural development. Development banks like the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) which give credit to the agriculture and furthermore for country advancement exercises.

8. Improve Foreign Trade

It gives Overseas Buyers Credit to purchase Indian capital merchandise. Likewise, urges abroad banks to give account to the purchasers in their nation to purchase capital products from India.

9. Revival of Sick Units

Development banks help to resuscitate (fix) wiped out units. It encourages modernization, rebuilding, and broadening of wiped out units by giving credit and different administrations. The public authority of India (GOI) began the Industrial Investment Bank of India (IIBI) to help wipe out units. IIBI is the principal credit and recreation foundation for a restoration of wiped out units.

10. Contribution to Capital Markets

The development bank helps in the growth of capital markets. They invest in equity shares and debentures and mutual funds of several companies listed in India.

Some of the Development Banks in India

Industrial Finance Corporation of India (IFCI): this is for providing medium and long-term credit for the needs of industrial units.

Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India (ICICI): it promotes private industry concerns in the country and was set up as a private sector development bank.

Industrial Development Bank of India (IDBI): the IDBI’s it organizes the activities of other development banks and term-financing institutions

Industrial Reconstruction Bank of India (IRBI)’: it provides financial assistance as well as to revive and revitalize sick industrial units in both of the sectors.

Small Industries Development Bank of India (SIDBI): With a view to ensuring a larger flow of financial and non-financial assistance to the small-scale sector.

State-Level Industrial Development Banks:(SFCs and SIDCs): there is a combination of financing agencies and industrial development banks, focusing on backward regions for the development of medium and small-scale industries in respective states.

कीमती धातुओं के भाव मे निचले स्तरों से आया सुधार, सप्ताह के अंत तक नहीं टिक पाया और भाव मे बिकवाली का दबाव देखा गया। घरेलु वायदा सोना 48374 रुपय प्रति दस ग्राम के ऊपरी स्तरों को छूने के बाद 1000 रुपय टूट कर 47300 के स्तरों पर कारोबार किया। घरेलु वायदा चाँदी भी 70700 प्रति किलो के ऊपरी स्तरों को छूने के बाद, 2200 रुपय टूट कर 68500 रुपय पर पहुंच गई। हालांकि पिछले सप्ताह कीमतें सपाट रही है। डॉलर इंडेक्स में चार दिन की गिरावट के बाद गुरुवार को तेज़ी आई जिससे सोने में गिरावट रही।

सिल्वर इंस्टीट्यूट ने बुधवार को कहा कि चाँदी की वैश्विक मांग 2021 में बढ़कर 1.025 बिलियन औंस हो जाएगी, जो कि आठ साल में सबसे अधिक है, क्योंकि निवेशकों और उद्योग ने चाँदी की खरीद को बढ़ाया है। कोरोनोवायरस प्रकोप ने निवेशकों के बीच चाँदी के भंडार में तेजी ला दी है, जिसे सोने की तरह पारंपरिक रूप से धन संचय करने के लिए एक सुरक्षित निवेश के रूप में देखा जाता है।

सिल्वर इंस्टिट्यूट के मुताबिक बार और कॉइन की मांग 257 मिलियन औंस तक बढ़ने का अनुमान है। इंस्टिट्यूट ने औद्योगिक मांग मे पिछले साल की अपेक्षा 9 प्रतिशत वृद्धि का अनुमान लगाया है। लेकिन माइन से चाँदी की मांग की अपेक्षा आपूर्ति अधिक रहने का अनुमान भी है जिसमे सिल्वर ईटीएफ की मांग को शामिल नहीं किया है।

महत्वपूर्ण तकनीकी स्तर:

इस सप्ताह अप्रैल वायदा सोने के भाव सीमित दायरे मे रहने की संभावना है और इसमे 46700 रुपय के निचले स्तरों पर समर्थन तथा 47700 रुपय के ऊपरी स्तरों पर प्रतिरोध है। मार्च वायदा चाँदी के भाव मे हल्की तेज़ी रहने की सम्भावना है और इसमें 67000 रुपय पर समर्थन और 71000 रुपय पर प्रतिरोध है।

प्रमुख आंकड़े:

बुधवार को अमेरिका से जारी होने वाले रीटेल सेल्स और फ़ेडरल रिज़र्व की बैठक प्रमुख है।