Commodity trading has always been influenced by global supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and currency movements. In 2025, Artificial Intelligence (AI) is emerging as a game-changer in the Indian commodity markets—be it gold, silver, crude oil, or agri-commodities.
From forecasting prices to executing trades in milliseconds, AI-driven systems are helping both retail and institutional traders make smarter, faster, and more informed decisions.
✅ Faster & more accurate price forecasts
✅ Data-driven risk management strategies
✅ Removal of emotional trading biases
✅ Ability to process global data at scale
✅ Democratization of advanced tools for retail traders
⚠️ Overreliance on models can lead to risks in black swan events
⚠️ High infrastructure costs for HFT setups
⚠️ SEBI regulations require compliance in algo-trading
These insights help both professional traders and beginners position themselves strategically.
While global hedge funds use expensive AI tools, Swastika Investmart empowers Indian investors with:
✅ Start AI-Driven Commodity Trading with Swastika
📲 Download the Swastika App – Android | iOS
Q1. Can AI predict commodity prices with 100% accuracy?
No, AI improves probabilities but markets remain influenced by global shocks.
Q2. Is AI-based commodity trading allowed in India?
Yes, SEBI permits algo-trading under regulatory frameworks, ensuring transparency.
Q3. Can beginners use AI in commodity trading?
Yes, through AI-powered research platforms provided by brokers like Swastika.
Q4. Which commodities benefit most from AI analysis?
Gold, crude oil, silver, and agricultural products due to their volatility and global impact.
AI is reshaping commodity trading in India, offering traders predictive insights, automation, and improved efficiency. While risks remain, AI-driven trading is creating opportunities for both seasoned investors and retail traders.
With Swastika Investmart’s AI-powered research and SEBI-compliant platforms, Indian traders can embrace the future of commodity trading with confidence and precision.
With an increase in global demand for metal investors interest shifted towards steel producers. As the global inventory level is coming down.
Even The World Steel Association on April 15 forested that the steel demand will grow up by 5.8% to reach 1.874 billion mt in 2021, even after declining by 0.2% in 2020, as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the sector turns out to be less than it's earlier predicted.
In India, the finished steel consumption grew up to a CAGR of 5.2% during the financial year 2016 to 2020 and reached 100 MT.
The production of crude steel and finished steel in India is increased by 108.5 MT and 101.03 MT in the last financial year, respectively. From April 2020 till January 2021, The cumulative production of finished steel is 76.04 MT in India.
The steel production capacity to be increased by 300MT by the year 2030-31 whereas the production of crude steel is expected to reach 255MT by 2030-31. Whereas the production of finished steel is to reach 230 MT.
The steel demand is going to rise post-Covid-19 as the all the pending projects will resume their working again. The sector like infrastructure and real estate contributes 62% of India’s steel consumption & demand. Growth of this sector 8.6% in 2018. Which slow down to 5.4% in 2019, & Pick up in 2020 & Expected to grow by 7% till 2024.
The contribution in demand for steel in the Railway sector is 3% which is growing at a fast pace. The automobile industry in India is the fourth largest & contributes 9% of steel demand.
Our country is the largest manufacturer of two-wheeler, tractors, and we are the fourth largest in passenger vehicles production, and stand seventh in commercial vehicles. The capital goods sector contributes 15% of steel demand.
It has various sub-segments like machinery and other equipment which are most prominent.
This segment is further divided into construction and earth-moving machinery, plant & heavy electrical machines. The consumer durables sector has a 5% contribution to India’s steel demand.
India is a consumption-driven economy and the sector has witnessed robust growth in the past few years. The Intermediate products sector contributes 6% of steel demand. This segment is closely associated with the auto sector, oil, and gas sector.
Business: The company is the largest integrated steel manufacturer, along with the power generation & infrastructure segment.
Returns during a pandemic: JSPL has given a 208% return from its 52 week low of Rs 62. Made a high of Rs 501
Business: JSW steel is in the business of manufacturing & sale of Iron & steel products
Returns during a pandemic: JSW Steel has given a 267% return from its 52 week low of Rs 132.50. Made a high of Rs 773.
Business: SAIL is a Government-owned company primarily in the business of manufacturing & selling Iron & steel products
Returns during a Pandemic: SAIL has given a 291% return from its 52 week low of Rs 20.15. Made a high of Rs 151.30.
Business: The company engaged in the business of steel manufacturing from mining & processing Iron Ore to production & distribution of Finished products.
Returns during a pandemic: TATA Steel has given a 251% return from its 52 week low of Rs 250.85. Made a high of Rs 1246.85.
Business: Primarily the company is engaged in the business of Aluminium production & products of Aluminium & copper and copper products. It is a company under the flagship of Aditya Birla Group
Returns during a Pandemic: Hindalco has given a 182% return from its 52 week low of Rs 84.90. Made a high of Rs 427.50.
Today, we’ll dive into the concept of low volatility investment—a strategy designed to minimize risk while aiming for steady returns. Low volatility investments are less affected by market fluctuations, making them attractive to conservative investors who prioritize stability. Let’s break down what low volatility investment is, why it’s beneficial, and how it works.
Low volatility investment involves selecting assets or portfolios that exhibit less fluctuation in price compared to the broader market. These investments experience smaller price swings, providing a more stable and predictable return profile.
Low volatility investments offer a strategy for those seeking stability and reduced risk in their portfolios. By focusing on assets with lower price fluctuations, investors can enjoy more predictable returns and better capital preservation. However, it’s important to consider the trade-offs, such as potentially lower returns and inflation risk. Understanding your financial goals and risk tolerance is essential for making updated investment decisions.
Our economy is still recovering from the impact of Covid-19. Our country is going through the 2nd wave of the pandemic and is still trying to overcome the losses that happened due to the serious issue of Covid-19.
Recently the GDP data arrived which shows some relief for us, But still, we are facing the serious issues of Inflation across the necessity items.
One of the major is Crude Oil/ Petroleum the prices in India are crossing the mark of Rs.100/ltr which directly affects the economy. The foremost impact is on the transportation & logistics, which somehow leads to rising in the prices of many essential items & products.
But with the advancement in technologies now we are shifting towards the easiest way of transportation which can work with the help of electricity in the most efficient manner.
The Indian market will soon see a new turnaround in this segment as the market will grow up to USD 47 billion by the end of 2026.
These vehicles are more cost-efficient, will have zero pollution and are more in demand in the USA and other countries. Everyone is looking at Electronic Vehicles as the future and which is soon going to happen.
Even the Government of India has announced a PLI scheme of Rs.57000 Cr for the manufacturing of auto parts which will boost it further.
Here is a list of some important auto-ancillary companies which are benefited:
The company manufactures lead-acid storage batteries from 2.5 ampere-hours to 20,600 ampere-hours. The company manufactures automotive batteries, industrial batteries, and submarine batteries.
The company is one of the largest manufacturers of lead-acid batteries for both industrial and automotive applications in the Indian battery industry.
This company is engaged in manufacturing and selling Tapered Leaf, Parabolic Springs, and Lift Axles. It was the first company to introduce parabolic springs in India.
The company is a leading supplier of lighting systems in an automobile which includes Head & Tail Lamps, Sundry and Auxiliary Lamps & other accessories for two and four wheeler, Buses & trucks, Tractors, and earthmovers.
They are engaged in the manufacturing of auto components which includes auto electrical parts & their relative accessories.
This company is a glass manufacturing company in India which is manufactured laminated windshield, antenna printed back lite, solar control glass, Glass antennas, etc. It also manufactures floating glass-like reflective glass.
The company offers a wide range of ride control products and also enjoys a monopoly position in the market.
The company manufacture completes seating & interior components for the automobile. This includes Two & Four wheeler seating, Mould Carpets, Mainframe for a two-wheeler, & Railways Seats.
The company engaged in the manufacturing of automotive wiring, Harnesses, Mirror for passenger vehicles. Mother-son Sumi is also a leading supplier of plastic components & modules in the industry.
Furthermore, companies which are engaged in Tire manufacturing, Power Generation, and supplying will be beneficial. Moreover, the EV segment will bring a positive change in the automobile segment.
Note: Details shared here are only for educational purposes.
Just think what if you bought Sensex in 1980 and held on to it now? The answer is: you would have multiplied your wealth nearly by 370 times. There are similar cases as well.
For instance, an investment of Rs 10,000 in Wipro in 1980 would be worth Rs 450 crore today. Also, the investment of Rs 1 Lakh in Eicher Motors in 2002 would be 20 crores today.
Still don't understand the concept? The examples that we have explained above are real case studies and many stocks have given huge returns in 2021.
There is a story about the company Infosys. In 1995, the company had launched its SME IPO and the one who invested a little amount of Rs 10,000 in Infosys IPO, is now enjoying a huge profit of $1 million.
In 2009, the share price of Eicher Motors was Rs 597.4, now the share price of the same stock is Rs 2,635.
Now the question arises, why do buy and hold stocks work in Indian equities? Buying an emerging stock and holding it for the long term will give you outstanding stock market trading returns in the future.
There is no set definition for the term buy and hold but yes the meaning of buy and hold is quite straightforward. Needless to say, investments in equities are riskier than other financial securities. Due to inadequate knowledge about the stock market, worst advisory services, many people have lost a huge amount by investing in equity.
In addition, some people invest in equities for a short time and as a result, they suffer from a loss. However, if people concentrate on buy and hold strategies for stocks, they will eventually achieve greater returns in the future.
Buy and hold is a long term passive strategy where investors keep a stable portfolio irrespective of short term fluctuations. As per the statistical data, buy and hold strategy is always a long term bet that will give you attractive returns in the future.
Equities are riskier instruments, but with a longer holding period, it can be turned out to be a fair investment strategy.
In other words, the market goes up more often than it goes down and compounding the returns during the good time of the stock market gives a higher yield than other financial instruments.
Below are the reasons why the buy and hold strategy has always worked for Indian equities:
The crux of the story which we have mentioned above is that the buy and hold strategy still works in India. Many people who invested a long time back in equity stocks, now enjoying a whopping return of $1 million. For better returns, you just need to identify good quality stocks and hold them for a longer-term.
Average is a word that we all have acquainted with. We all have learnt the topic of averages in school and the moving average is considered as an additional version of it.
As we all know, calculating averages become an integral part of our lives as it is the fundamental term used to express the central or typical value in a set of data particularly the mean, median or mode.
Now, you may be interested to know that moving averages can also be used for trading. Before we take a dig deep into moving averages and how it adds a value in the stock market trading, let's get a brief of the term.
Moving Averages are trend indicators that are widely used to predict future stock price trends. They are mostly used because of their simplicity and effectiveness.
The most common moving averages are 15-, 20-, 30-, 50-, 100- and 200- day MA.
There are mainly two types of moving averages used in trading, which are SMA (Simple moving average) and EMA (Exponential Moving Average). The SMA is calculated as: take the closing price of a security for the relevant period, add them and divide the sum by the period number.
Where in EMA, each price in the MA is given an equal weightage. Also, the calculation of EMA is more complex than SMA as it gives more weightage to the most recent price.
The moving indicator records the data based on the past price trends and hence it is known as the lagging indicator. I.e the longer the moving average time period, the greater the lag. A 200-day MA is lagging more than a 20-DMA because a 200-DMA is plotted based on the past 200 days. Whereas the latter is plotted by using the latest 20 days data.
You can easily customize the MA indicator. The shorter the MA, the more effectively its price changes.
Below we are mentioning a few points on using moving averages:
When a stock trends upwards, its moving average will act as a floor price.
When a stock trend downwards, the moving average will form a resistance with the stock price which is currently going downwards.
You can also plot two or more MAs for stock to detect crossover i.e. the point at which Moving Average intersects each other.
This brings us to the moving average convergence divergence (MACD). The MACD is calculated as the difference between a stock’s two EMAs - the 12 periods and 26 periods EMA.
Now, explaining the MACD signal line - a nine period EMA of the MACD value. When plotted over the MACD line, it acts as a trigger to buy or sell.
It is a buy signal when the MACD crosses the above signal line, it is a sell signal when it crosses the below signal line.
Price crossover is defined as a cross over above or below the Moving Average, its immediate mark a change in stock’s price trend.
Two Plotted MAs are bound to crossover at various points. A comes were the short term MA crosses above the long term MA signifies a bullish pattern.
When the short term MA crosses below the long term MA, it indicates a bearish pattern.
If the stock price counted above 200 days MA, it marks a buying trend whereas if a stock price comes below 200 days MA, it gives a sell indicator.
Moving Average Disadvantages
Moving averages are calculated based on the past trends and it shows nothing about prediction based on present trends. Hence, the results using moving averages can be random. There is a time where the markets support MA/resistance and trade signals, while at other times the results are different than what MA shows.
Another Problem is Price fluctuation.
If the price action changes frequently and it swings forth and back generates multiple trade signals, it confuses the MA.
At this point, it's good to seek another trading indicator to clarify the trend.
The same thing happens with MA crossovers when MA gets tangled up for a period of time which in turn results in multiple trading losses.
Moving averages work well when the trending conditions are strong but fail in choppy or ranging conditions. The best solution is to adjust the time frame that can solve this problem temporarily. However, at some point in time, these issues frequently occur regardless of the time frame chosen for the Moving Averages.
A moving average simplifies price data that can be used by monitoring past trends. It has been observed that EMA reacts quicker to price changes than SMA.
In some cases, it gives a good response to the research while in some cases it gives the wrong signal. Moving averages with a shorter lookback period (20 days) will also give a faster response to price changes than an average with a long lookback period i.e. 200 days.
Moving averages crossovers is still a popular strategy for both entries and exits. MAs can also highlight areas of potential i.e. support or resistance.
Masala bonds are something that might seem unfamiliar to many people. However, it is not unfamiliar for the people who often deal with the bonds.
Masala bonds were first introduced in 2014 by International Finance Corporation (IFC). Masala bonds are bonds issued outside India by Indian organizations or entities. However, these bonds are issued in Indian currency rather than the local currency.
Indian companies issue masala bonds outside India to raise money from foreign investors. As it is pegged into Indian currency, investors have to bear the loss as the rupee rate falls.
Masala Bond, the name is given by International Finance Corporation (IFC). The term Masala is an Indian word, basically used for spices, to explore the culture and cuisine of India on the international platform.
Masala bonds are rupee-denominated bonds that are issued outside India. They are categorized as debt instruments that help to raise money in local currency from foreign investors. These bonds can be issued by both government and private entities. Any resident of the country can take the subscription of these bonds, however, there are certain conditions are applied.
Investors can only be subscribed to the masala bonds whose security market regulator is a member of the International Organization of Security Commission.
Also, regional financial institutions and multilateral financial institutions can subscribe to these bonds.
According to the RBI, the minimum maturity period for Masala bonds raised to the Rupee equivalent of USD 50 million in a financial year should be 5 years. However, the maturity period is five years for the bonds raised above the rupee equivalent of 50 million dollars in a financial year.
The conversion for such bonds will happen at the market rate on the date of settlement of transactions undertaken for the issue and servicing of the bonds including its redemption.
Masala bonds are directly issued in Indian rupees. i.e. the investors need to carry the exchange rate risks. If a person issues a Masala bond, it will not directly affect the issuer if the rupee rate falls. Instead, the risk goes directly to the investors.
Investors that are residing outside India who want to invest in Indian assets can issue Masala bonds. Several Indian organizations such as NTPC, HDFC, Indiabulls have raised their funds through Masala Bonds.
These bonds can be used:
In refinancing of non-convertible debentures and rupee loan.
Working capital to corporate
For the development of integrated townships and affordable housing projects.
RBI mandates the process raised from these bonds cannot be used -
In real estate activities where the development of integrated township and affordable housing projects takes place.
The benefits for the investors are as follows:
It assists in developing foreign investors’ confidence in the Indian economy.
It offers higher interest rates which in turns benefits the investors
It aids in strengthening the foreign investments in the county as it facilitates the investor’s confidence in Indian currency.
The capital gains from rupee denominations are mostly exempted by the tax.
If the rupee value increases at the time of maturity, it will provide a maximum return to the investors.
Since Masala bonds have no currency risk, it saves the borrower from currency fluctuation.
The borrower can mobilize a huge amount of funds.
It helps the Indian organization in issuing these bonds to diversify their portfolio.
Investors need not worry about rupee depreciation as the issuance of these bonds took place in Indian currency rather than foreign currency.
It helps borrowers to cut down their costs as they are issued outside India at an interest rate below 7%.
As these bonds are issued in the offshore market, it assists borrowers to cover a large number of investors.
Needless to say, Masala bonds are issued in Rupee terms and the interest and principal repayment happens in dollar terms. It can be noted that in this case, the issuer does not bear the currency risk, but the risk is fully associated with the investor.
Earlier, this used to be a major problem for Indian companies that were issuing dollar-denominated bonds in the past. For instance, in 2008, the INR crashed sharply vs US dollars. At that time, the depreciation of INR vs US dollar forced many companies to bankrupt.
To understand the importance of Masala Bond, one needs to understand the risk associated with dollar-denominated bonds through a suitable example:
Suppose company XYZ ltd, issued dollar-denominated bonds of $200 million to its lenders at a 5% interest rate. The exchange rate at that time was Rs55/$. Hence, the company brought in Rs 1100 crores to be deployed into the Indian business. When the bonds were redeemed after 5 years, the prevailing exchange rate was Rs69/$.
As a result, XYZ company Ltd had to pay Rs 1380 crore to repay the $200 million to its lenders.
Apart from the interest rate, the company will have to give an additional Rs 280 crore due to rupee depreciation. Many Indian companies cannot afford this type of currency costs.
Now the question arises, why would foreign investors take the currency risks? There are two reasons: Firstly, investors get attracted by the higher rates of interest that Masala bonds offer. Here, the world's higher yield catches the investor’s attention.
Secondly: Investors are betting whether the INR will remain steady or move upward against the dollar, which means the investors who invest in Masala bonds will get the dual benefit.
The benefit due to higher comparative yields on Masala bonds. Also, investors stand to get more dollars from the same amount of rupees because these bonds will be settled in dollars.
Masala bonds are the rupee-denominated bonds issued outside India by an Indian entity. The bonds are issued in rupee terms and the interest and principal repayment occurs in dollars. Hence these bonds can be a game-changer for Indian companies.
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