Introduction

Bond futures—a financial instrument that’s widely used by investors, traders, and institutions to hedge against interest rate risks or speculate on the future movements of bond prices. If you’re new to bond futures, don’t worry! We’ll break down the concept in simple terms and help you understand how they work, why they’re used, and their potential benefits.

What are Bond Futures?

Bond futures are standardized contracts that allow investors to buy or sell a bond at a predetermined price on a future date. These contracts are traded on exchanges, and they derive their value from an underlying bond, often a government bond like the Indian Government Securities (G-Secs).

For example, if you buy a bond future contract, you’re agreeing to purchase a specific bond at a set price on a set date in the future. This allows you to lock in the bond’s price today, regardless of future market fluctuations.

Why Do Investors Use Bond Futures?

1. Hedging Interest Rate Risk: One of the primary uses of bond futures is to hedge against interest rate fluctuations. Since bond prices are inversely related to interest rates, investors use bond futures to protect themselves from potential losses due to rising interest rates.
2. Speculation: Traders also use bond futures to speculate on the direction of interest rates. For instance, if a trader believes that interest rates will rise, they might sell bond futures, anticipating that bond prices will fall.
3. Leverage: Bond futures allow investors to gain exposure to bonds without having to pay the full price upfront. This leverage can amplify both potential gains and losses.

How Do Bond Futures Work?

Here’s a simple example to illustrate how bond futures work:

• Assume you are an investor who believes that interest rates will drop in the next three months. You buy a bond future contract at a price of ₹1,000.
• If interest rates do drop, the price of the bond in the market increases, say to ₹1,050. You can now sell your bond future contract at this higher price, making a profit of ₹50 per contract.
• However, if interest rates rise instead, and the bond price drops to ₹950, you would incur a loss if you decide to sell the contract.

Benefits of Bond Futures

1. Risk Management: Bond futures are an excellent tool for managing interest rate risk. By locking in prices, investors can protect their portfolios from unfavorable market movements.
2. Liquidity: Bond futures are traded on exchanges, making them highly liquid. This allows investors to enter and exit positions with ease.
3. Transparency: Since bond futures are traded on regulated exchanges, they offer a transparent pricing mechanism, ensuring fair value transactions.

Examples of Bond Futures in the Indian Market

• NSE Bond Futures: The National Stock Exchange (NSE) in India offers bond futures contracts based on government securities. These contracts allow investors to hedge their positions or take speculative bets on the movement of government bond yields.
• 10-Year G-Sec Futures: A popular bond future in India is based on the 10-year government bond. Investors use this contract to hedge against long-term interest rate movements.

Risks and Considerations

1. Leverage Risk: While leverage can magnify gains, it can also magnify losses. Investors must be cautious when using leverage in bond futures trading.
2. Market Risk: The value of bond futures is affected by changes in interest rates and bond prices. Unexpected market movements can lead to significant losses.
3. Complexity: Bond futures can be complex instruments, requiring a solid understanding of interest rates, bond pricing, and market dynamics.

Conclusion

Bond futures are powerful tools for managing interest rate risks and speculating on bond price movements. They offer benefits such as risk management, liquidity, and transparency but also come with risks like leverage and market volatility. 

What is Last Traded Price?

Last Traded Price (LTP) is the price at which the most recent transaction of a stock, ETF, commodity, or any other listed security takes place on a stock exchange. Simply put, it represents the latest price agreed upon by a buyer and a seller.

For example, if Reliance Industries' latest executed trade occurs at ₹1,495, then ₹1,495 becomes the Last Traded Price (LTP) until another trade occurs at a different price. The LTP keeps changing throughout market hours because thousands of buy and sell orders are matched every second on exchanges like the NSE and BSE.

Quick Answer: Last Traded Price (LTP) is the price at which the latest trade of a stock or security is executed on the exchange. It reflects the most recent market transaction and updates every time a new trade occurs.

What Does LTP Stand For?

LTP stands for Last Traded Price. It is one of the most frequently used indicators across trading platforms because it provides investors with an instant snapshot of where a stock is trading. Whether you're investing for the long term or actively trading during the day, the Last Traded Price is usually the first number you'll notice while tracking any stock.

Why is Last Traded Price Important?

The Last Traded Price serves as the latest indicator of market sentiment. Although it doesn't necessarily represent the exact price you'll receive when placing an order, it tells you the most recent value at which buyers and sellers agreed to trade.

Suppose HDFC Bank's LTP is ₹2,080.

This means the most recent transaction happened at ₹2,080. It indicates that at least one buyer and one seller agreed on this price based on current market conditions.

Investors use the Last Traded Price to:

• Understand current market sentiment.
• Track intraday price movements.
• Compare current prices with previous closing prices.
• Monitor portfolio performance.
• Plan entry and exit points.
• Evaluate price momentum before placing an order.

While LTP is useful, experienced investors never rely on it alone. They also consider trading volume, bid-ask spread, technical indicators, and overall market conditions.

How Does Last Traded Price Work?

Every stock exchange maintains an electronic order book where buyers place bids, and sellers place offers. Whenever a buyer agrees to purchase shares at the seller's asking price, or a seller accepts a buyer's bid, the trade gets executed. The execution price immediately becomes the new Last Traded Price.

As more trades occur, the LTP continues updating throughout the trading session. Since thousands of transactions happen every second in actively traded stocks, the Last Traded Price changes continuously during market hours.

How One Trade Changes the LTP

Many beginner investors believe that a stock's price changes only after a large number of shares are traded. In reality, even a single executed trade can change the Last Traded Price.

Consider the following example:

Notice how each successful transaction immediately updates the Last Traded Price. This is why prices fluctuate every second during active trading sessions.

How is Last Traded Price Calculated?

Unlike financial ratios or averages, the Last Traded Price is not calculated using a mathematical formula. It is simply the price at which the latest trade is executed. Whenever:

• A buyer's bid matches a seller's asking price, and
• The exchange confirms the transaction,

the execution price automatically becomes the new LTP.

This makes the Last Traded Price one of the simplest yet most important real-time indicators in the stock market.

How Traders or Investors Use Last Traded Price

The Last Traded Price plays an important role in everyday investing and trading decisions. Some of these areas are:

Intraday Trading

Intraday traders continuously monitor the LTP to identify short-term price movements and momentum.

Swing Trading

Swing traders compare the Last Traded Price with support and resistance levels before entering a position.

Long-Term Investing

Long-term investors use the LTP to determine suitable buying opportunities, especially during market corrections.

Portfolio Monitoring

Existing investors monitor the LTP to understand how their holdings are performing throughout the day.

Example of Last Traded Price

Suppose ICICI Bank opens the day at ₹1,400. During the trading session:

• First trade: ₹1,401
• Second trade: ₹1,405
• Third trade: ₹1,398
• Fourth trade: ₹1,410

The Last Traded Price after the fourth transaction becomes ₹1,410 because that was the most recent successfully executed trade. It doesn't necessarily mean every buyer or seller is willing to trade at ₹1,410 now, it simply reflects the latest completed transaction.

Where Can You See the Last Traded Price?

Almost every stock market platform displays the Last Traded Price prominently. You can find it on:

• Trading apps
• Stock broker platforms
• NSE and BSE websites
• Demat account dashboards
• Trading terminals
• Market watchlists
• Stock screeners

Alongside the Last Traded Price, you will generally see:

• Previous Close
• Open Price
• Day High
• Day Low
• Trading Volume
• Bid Price
• Ask Price
• Percentage Change

Looking at these metrics together provides a much better understanding of the market than relying on the LTP alone.

Last Traded Price vs Bid Price vs Ask Price

Many new investors confuse the Last Traded Price (LTP) with the Bid Price and Ask Price. Although all three appear together on a trading screen, they represent different aspects of the market.

Example

Suppose you are tracking Infosys.

• Bid Price: ₹1,592
• Ask Price: ₹1,594
• Last Traded Price: ₹1,593

Here, the latest trade happened at ₹1,593, buyers are currently willing to pay up to ₹1,592, while sellers want at least ₹1,594 for their shares. Understanding this difference helps investors place better limit orders instead of buying or selling at unfavourable prices.

Last Traded Price vs Market Price vs Closing Price vs VWAP

Another common point of confusion is the difference between the Last Traded Price, Market Price, Closing Price, and VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price).

Last Traded Price (LTP)

Reflects the latest completed transaction and changes after every executed trade.

Market Price

This is the approximate price at which your market order is likely to be executed. It may differ slightly from the displayed LTP because prices keep changing every second.

Closing Price

The closing price is the official price determined by the stock exchange at the end of the trading session. Investors often compare the current LTP with the previous day's closing price to understand whether a stock is trading higher or lower.

VWAP

VWAP considers both price and trading volume throughout the day. Unlike the Last Traded Price, which reflects only one transaction, VWAP provides a broader view of the stock's average trading price. 

Professional intraday traders often monitor both LTP and VWAP together before making trading decisions.

Factors Affecting Last Traded Price

The Last Traded Price constantly changes because markets continuously react to new information and trading activity. Some of the biggest factors influencing the LTP include:

Demand and Supply

Like any market, stock prices are primarily driven by demand and supply. If buyers significantly outnumber sellers, the Last Traded Price generally moves upward. Similarly, heavy selling pressure can pull the LTP lower.

Order Flow

Large institutional orders, mutual fund buying, FII activity, or sudden retail participation can quickly influence the Last Traded Price. Stocks with heavy order flow usually experience frequent LTP updates throughout the trading session.

Company News

Corporate announcements can significantly impact the Last Traded Price. Examples include:

• Quarterly earnings
• Dividend announcements
• Stock splits
• Bonus issues
• Mergers and acquisitions
• Management changes

Positive news often increases buying interest, while negative developments may trigger selling pressure.

Economic Events

Macroeconomic developments also influence stock prices. Some major events include:

• RBI monetary policy decisions
• Inflation data
• GDP growth figures
• Union Budget announcements
• Global interest rate changes
• Crude oil price movements

These events affect overall market sentiment, causing the Last Traded Price of many stocks to change rapidly.

Liquidity

Highly liquid stocks usually witness smoother price discovery because thousands of shares are traded every minute. On the other hand, stocks with lower liquidity may experience sharp jumps in the Last Traded Price, even with relatively small trades.

How Trading Volume Complements the Last Traded Price

Looking only at the Last Traded Price may not provide the complete picture. Trading volume helps investors understand whether the current price movement is supported by genuine market participation. For example:

Scenario 1

A stock moves from ₹500 to ₹525 with exceptionally high trading volume. This indicates strong buying interest, making the price move more reliable.

Scenario 2

Another stock rises from ₹500 to ₹525 with very low trading volume. Since only a few trades caused the increase, the movement may not be sustainable.

So, combining Last Traded Price with trading volume allows investors to identify stronger trading opportunities and avoid false price movements.

Why Last Traded Price Matters to Traders and Investors

Although the Last Traded Price is just one market indicator, it plays an important role in almost every investment decision. For intraday traders, it helps identify momentum and execute trades quickly.

For swing traders, it acts as a reference while planning entries near support or resistance levels.

For long-term investors, it provides the latest valuation before accumulating or exiting positions.

Institutional investors, analysts, and fund managers also monitor the Last Traded Price to evaluate market activity, liquidity, and investor sentiment. However, experienced market participants rarely rely on the LTP alone. They combine it with technical indicators, company fundamentals, market news, and trading volume for a more comprehensive analysis.

Common Misconceptions About Last Traded Price

Many beginners misunderstand what the Last Traded Price actually represents.

LTP is Not Guaranteed Execution Price

The price displayed as the LTP may change before your order reaches the exchange. If market conditions change quickly, your trade may execute at a different price.

A Rising LTP Doesn't Always Mean the Stock is Bullish

Sometimes a stock's Last Traded Price rises briefly because of temporary buying interest. Without strong trading volume or sustained demand, the trend may reverse quickly.

A Falling LTP Doesn't Always Signal Weakness

Short-term profit booking or overall market volatility can temporarily reduce the Last Traded Price even when a company's long-term fundamentals remain strong.

LTP Alone shouldn't Drive Investment Decisions

Successful investors combine the Last Traded Price with:

• Company fundamentals
• Technical analysis
• Market sentiment
• Trading volume
• Economic developments
• Sector performance

This holistic approach leads to more informed investment decisions.

Things to Remember Before Using Last Traded Price for Buying or Selling

The Last Traded Price (LTP) is an important market indicator, but it should never be the only factor guiding your investment decisions. A stock's price can change multiple times within a single minute, especially in volatile market conditions. Here are a few practical points every investor should keep in mind before acting solely on the Last Traded Price.

Don't Judge a Stock Only by Its LTP

A stock trading at ₹2,000 is not necessarily expensive, and one trading at ₹50 is not automatically cheap. The Last Traded Price only tells you the price of the latest executed trade—it does not indicate whether the stock is overvalued or undervalued.

Before investing, also evaluate:

• Company fundamentals
• Earnings growth
• Valuation ratios
• Industry outlook
• Overall market trend

Check Trading Volume Along With LTP

A price movement backed by strong trading volume is generally more reliable than one occurring on low volumes. 

For example, if a stock's Last Traded Price rises 5% while millions of shares are traded, it indicates stronger market participation than a similar rise supported by only a few thousand shares.

Watch the Bid-Ask Spread

Sometimes the Last Traded Price may appear attractive, but the difference between the Bid Price and Ask Price is unusually wide. A wider spread usually indicates lower liquidity, meaning you may not get your desired execution price immediately.

Avoid Emotional Decisions

Many beginners buy a stock simply because its Last Traded Price is rising rapidly. Similarly, panic selling during temporary declines often leads to unnecessary losses. Instead of reacting emotionally, always analyse:

• Why the price is moving
• Whether the movement is supported by volume
• Current news or announcements
• Overall market sentiment

Understand That LTP Changes Every Second

During active trading hours, the Last Traded Price updates continuously. By the time you place a market order, another trade may already have occurred, resulting in a different execution price.

For this reason, many experienced traders prefer Limit Orders, especially when trading volatile stocks.

Combine LTP with Technical Analysis

The Last Traded Price becomes much more meaningful when used alongside technical indicators such as:

• Support and resistance levels
• Moving averages
• RSI (Relative Strength Index)
• MACD
• VWAP
• Trendlines

This combination provides a clearer picture of the market instead of relying on a single data point.

Expert Suggestions on How to View Last Traded Price

Professional traders rarely treat the Last Traded Price as a standalone indicator. Instead, they use it as one part of a broader decision-making process. Here are a few best practices followed by experienced market participants:

View LTP as a Real-Time Market Snapshot

Think of the Last Traded Price as a live snapshot rather than the stock's "true value." It simply reflects the most recent agreement between a buyer and seller at a particular moment.

Look Beyond Price Movement

Instead of asking, "The LTP has increased. Should I buy?", ask,

• Is the trend supported by volume?
• Has the stock crossed an important resistance level?
• Is there any significant company announcement?
• What is the overall market direction?

These questions lead to much better investment decisions.

Use Multiple Time Frames

Intraday traders often monitor the Last Traded Price on shorter timeframes like 1-minute or 5-minute charts. Swing traders may focus on 30-minute, hourly, or daily charts. Long-term investors generally use the LTP only as an entry or exit reference while relying more on business fundamentals.

Track LTP Alongside Market Depth

Most modern trading platforms display Market Depth (Level 2 data), which shows pending buy and sell orders. Viewing LTP together with market depth provides better insight into:

• Buying pressure
• Selling pressure
• Liquidity
• Possible price direction

Don't Ignore Overall Market Sentiment

Sometimes a stock's Last Traded Price falls simply because the entire market is under pressure and not because the company itself is weak.

Similarly, during strong bull markets, many stocks rise together even without major company-specific developments. Understanding the broader market context helps interpret LTP more accurately.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

What is the Last Traded Price (LTP) in the stock market?

The Last Traded Price (LTP) is the price at which the most recent trade of a stock or other security was executed on a stock exchange. It reflects the latest market transaction and changes whenever a new trade takes place.

Is the Last Traded Price the same as the market price?

No. The Last Traded Price represents the most recent executed trade, while the market price refers to the price at which your order is likely to execute immediately based on available buy and sell orders. During volatile markets, these prices can differ slightly.

How is the Last Traded Price calculated?

The Last Traded Price is not calculated using a formula. It is simply the price of the latest successfully matched trade between a buyer and a seller on the exchange. Every completed transaction updates the LTP automatically.

Why does the Last Traded Price keep changing?

The Last Traded Price changes whenever a new trade is executed. Since investors continuously place buy and sell orders throughout the trading session, the LTP may update several times every second for actively traded stocks.

Can I buy a stock exactly at the Last Traded Price?

Not always. By the time your order reaches the exchange, the price may have changed because another trade has already occurred. Using a limit order instead of a market order gives you better control over the execution price.

Is the Last Traded Price enough to make investment decisions?

No. While the Last Traded Price provides valuable real-time information, investors should also consider trading volume, company fundamentals, technical analysis, market news, liquidity, and overall market sentiment before buying or selling any stock.

Where can I see the Last Traded Price?

You can view the Last Traded Price on:

• NSE and BSE trading platforms
• Online brokerage apps
• Market data terminals
• Financial news websites
• Swastika Investmart's trading platform

The LTP is displayed in real time during market hours.

Conclusion

The Last Traded Price (LTP) is one of the most frequently watched numbers in the stock market because it reflects the latest transaction between buyers and sellers. However, understanding what the LTP represents and what it doesn't is equally important.

Whether you are a beginner taking your first steps into the share market or an experienced trader tracking intraday movements, learning how to interpret the Last Traded Price correctly can significantly improve your decision-making process.

At Swastika Investmart, we believe informed investors make better investors. Our advanced trading platform, real-time market data, research reports, educational resources, and expert market insights help you understand market movements beyond just the Last Traded Price.

Open your Demat and Trading Account with Swastika Investmart today and gain access to powerful trading tools, expert research, and a seamless investing experience designed for every type of investor.

An Initial Public Offer (IPO) marks a pivotal moment for a privately held company as it ventures into the public market, offering its shares to the general public for the first time. This transition requires meticulous planning and preparation. A critical element that contributes to the triumph of an IPO is the involvement of Anchor Investors. This blog will delve into the significant role these institutional investors play in the IPO process.

What are Anchor Investors?

Anchor Investors refer to prominent institutional investors such as investment banks, mutual funds, pension funds, insurance companies, and other significant players. They play a vital role by making substantial investments in an IPO, aiming to provide stability to the stock price and inspire confidence among potential investors.

Role of Anchor Investors in an IPO:

Providing Stability to Stock Price:

• Anchor Investors' substantial investment in the IPO stabilizes the stock price during its initial listing phase.
• This stability instills confidence in other investors and encourages them to participate in the IPO.

Offering Validation:

• The presence of Anchor Investors sends a strong signal that the company is financially sound and possesses promising prospects.
• Their investment serves as an endorsement of the company's future potential, attracting more investors to participate in the IPO.

Building Credibility:

• Anchor Investors' extensive experience and expertise in investing lend credibility to the company.
• Their participation boosts investors' confidence, positioning the company as an attractive investment opportunity.

Improving Allocation:

• Anchor Investors typically receive a preferential allocation of shares in the IPO.
• This strategic allocation enhances the overall distribution of shares, mitigates the risk of oversubscription, and fosters market stability.

Providing Liquidity:

• The investment from Anchor Investors ensures sufficient demand for the stock, preventing excessive falls in the stock price.
• This liquidity attracts more investors to participate in the IPO, allowing the company to raise the necessary capital.

Offering Support:

• Beyond the IPO, Anchor Investors continue to hold their shares even during challenging times.
• Their unwavering support sustains confidence among other investors and contributes to the company's ongoing financial stability.

In conclusion, Anchor Investors play an indispensable role in the triumph of an IPO. Their significant investment imparts stability to the stock price, enhances the company's credibility, and entices more investors to partake in the IPO. Furthermore, their ongoing support contributes to the company's continued financial stability. For companies planning an IPO, understanding and seeking the support of Anchor Investors is pivotal to navigating this transformative process successfully.

The US dollar plays a significant role in shaping the global economy, and its influence on the Indian economy is no exception. The strength or weakness of the dollar can have a wide range of effects on various sectors in India, including trade, investment, inflation, and even individual finances. In this blog, we will explore how the fluctuations in the US dollar affect India in simple terms.

1. Impact on Imports and Exports

India trades extensively with other countries, and most international transactions, especially for oil and other critical imports, are done in US dollars. Here's how the dollar's value affects trade:

• Imports: When the US dollar strengthens (becomes more expensive in comparison to the Indian rupee), the cost of importing goods like crude oil, machinery, and electronics rises. Since India is a net importer of goods, a strong dollar makes it more expensive for companies and, ultimately, consumers. This leads to higher prices for petrol, diesel, and even everyday items.
• Exports: On the other hand, when the dollar is strong, Indian exports become cheaper for foreign buyers. This can benefit sectors like IT, textiles, and manufacturing as their goods and services become more competitive internationally. A weak rupee helps boost exports, contributing positively to the economy.

2. Foreign Investments

The US dollar has a direct impact on foreign investments, especially Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Foreign Institutional Investment (FII):

• Strong Dollar and Investments: When the US dollar strengthens, investors may find investing in US assets more attractive, resulting in a potential outflow of capital from emerging markets like India. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) often withdraw money from Indian markets to invest in US assets, impacting India's stock markets negatively.
• Weak Dollar and Investments: Conversely, when the dollar weakens, foreign investors may be encouraged to put their money into high-growth emerging markets like India, boosting Indian stocks and currency.

3. Impact on Inflation

The value of the US dollar can also directly impact inflation in India:

• Higher Import Costs: As mentioned earlier, a stronger US dollar makes imports costlier. Since India imports large quantities of oil, this leads to increased transportation and manufacturing costs, which are then passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices for goods and services. This results in inflation, where the overall cost of living increases.
• Lower Inflation: If the US dollar weakens, the cost of imports goes down, and inflationary pressures ease. However, the reverse can happen if the rupee strengthens significantly against the dollar.

4. Debt and Borrowing

India, like many countries, borrows from foreign lenders, and much of this debt is in US dollars:

• Stronger Dollar, Higher Debt: When the dollar appreciates, the burden of repaying loans in dollars becomes heavier for the Indian government and corporations that have borrowed in foreign currencies. This puts additional pressure on the country’s finances and can lead to higher interest rates domestically.
• Weaker Dollar, Lower Debt: A weaker dollar reduces the repayment burden, freeing up more resources for domestic investments and growth.

5. Effect on Forex Reserves

India maintains a reserve of foreign currencies, including the US dollar, to manage currency stability and meet international obligations. The strength of the dollar affects these reserves:

• Higher Reserves: When the US dollar strengthens, India’s reserves (held in dollars) gain value in rupee terms, which can be beneficial for currency stability.
• Lower Reserves: If the dollar weakens, the value of India’s forex reserves decreases, which may affect the ability of the central bank to stabilize the rupee or meet its international obligations.

6. Tourism and Overseas Education

Changes in the dollar’s value can also impact Indian travelers and students:

• Expensive Trips Abroad: When the US dollar is strong, it becomes more expensive for Indian tourists to travel to the US or other countries where the dollar is the preferred currency. Similarly, students studying abroad may find their expenses rising, as tuition fees, accommodation, and living costs become more expensive.
• Cheaper Travel and Education: On the other hand, a weaker dollar can reduce the cost of overseas travel and education, making it easier for Indians to afford international experiences.

7. Remittances

India is one of the largest recipients of remittances (money sent back home by Indians working abroad). The value of the dollar affects the value of these remittances:

• Stronger Dollar, More Money: When the dollar strengthens, Indians receiving remittances in US dollars benefit because they receive more money when converting to rupees. This provides extra financial support for families in India.
• Weaker Dollar, Less Money: If the dollar weakens, the value of remittances decreases, leading to reduced financial inflows for Indian households.

Conclusion

The US dollar’s fluctuations have a wide-reaching impact on various aspects of the Indian economy, from trade and investment to inflation and personal finances. A strong dollar can lead to higher costs for imports and debt repayment, while benefiting exports and remittances. On the flip side, a weaker dollar can reduce inflationary pressures and encourage foreign investment. Understanding these dynamics is key to grasping how India’s economy is interconnected with global financial markets, particularly through the US dollar.

By keeping an eye on the dollar's movements, businesses, investors, and even individuals can better navigate the changing economic landscape and make smart decisions.

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सोने की कीमतें पिछले सप्ताह एक महीने के निचले स्तर के करीब रहीं, क्योकि पिछले महीने के अमेरिकी मुद्रास्फीति के आंकड़े अपेक्षा से कम रहे, जबकि अमेरिकी डॉलर और बांड यील्ड मजबूत होने के कारण कीमती धातुओं में साप्ताहिक मंदी रही। हालांकि, आंकड़ों के अनुसार अमेरिकी उपभोक्ता मूल्य सूचकांक (सीपीआई) वार्षिक आधार पर 3.2 प्रतिशत चढ़ गया, लेकिन यह अनुमान 3.3 प्रतिशत से कम रहा, जबकि यह पिछले महीने 3 प्रतिशत था, जिसके बाद यह उम्मीद बढ़ गई है कि अमेरिकी केंद्रीय बैंक 2023 में ब्याज दरें आगे भी बढ़ाएगा। ब्याज दर बढ़ने से कीमती धातुओं पर असर पड़ता है क्योंकि इससे बांड यील्ड बढ़ती है और गैर-उपज वाले बुलियन को रखने की अवसर लागत भी बढ़ जाती है। पिछले सप्ताह सोने और चांदी की कीमतों में ऊपरी स्तरों से दबाव बना रहा, हालांकि एमसीएक्स में ऑक्टूबर वायदा सोना 0.33 प्रतिशत साप्ताहिक गिरावट के बाद 58930 रुपये प्रति दस ग्राम और सितम्बर वायदा चांदी 3 प्रतिशत टूटने के बाद 70000 रुपये प्रति किलो पर कारोबार करती रही। बेंचमार्क अमेरिकी ट्रेज़री यील्ड बढ़ कर 4.1 प्रतिशत हो गई जबकि यू.एस. डॉलर इंडेक्स में 0.5 प्रतिशत की साप्ताहिक बढ़ोतरी दर्ज की गई है। घरेलु बाजार में त्यौहार और शादी सीजन नहीं होने से कीमती धातुओं की मांग सुस्त है। वर्ल्ड गोल्ड कॉउन्सिल के मुताबिक जून की तिमाही में सोने के ऊंचे भाव रहने के कारण भारत में इसकी डिमांड में 7 प्रतिशत की गिरावट दर्ज की गई है। इंदौर सराफा बाज़ार में सोने का हाज़िर भाव 59560 रुपये प्रति दस ग्राम रहा। औद्योगिक धातुओं के प्रमुख आयातक चीन की ओर से कमजोर आर्थिक आकड़ो से स्पष्ट होता है की वैश्विक अर्थव्यवस्था में डिमांड सुस्त है। पिछले सप्ताह चीन के मुद्रास्फीति के आंकड़े -0.3 प्रतिशत के नकारात्मक स्तरों पर पहुंच गए है। जुलाई में चीन के आयात और निर्यात के आंकड़े अनुमान से अधिक सिकुड़ गए है। जिससे वहा प्रॉपर्टी बाज़ार की चिंताए बढ़ गई है। प्रमुख अर्थव्यवस्थाओं के सिकुड़ने के कारण सोने में गिरावट सीमित बना हुई है। इस सप्ताह एफओएमसी मीटिंग के मिनट्स कीमती धातुओं के लिए महत्वपूर्ण रहेंगे।

तकनिकी विश्लेषण

इस सप्ताह कीमती धातुओं के भाव दबाव में रहने की सम्भावना है। एमसीएक्स अक्टूबर वायदा सोने में सपोर्ट 58000 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 60000 रुपये पर है। सितम्बर वायदा चांदी में सपोर्ट 68500 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 74000 रुपये पर है।

ब्याज दरों में बढ़ोतरी के कारण कीमती धातुओं में दबाव बना हुआ है, लेकिन ग्लोबल अर्थव्यवस्था की सुस्त चाल इनको निचले स्तरों पर सपोर्ट भी कर रही है। फेड और ईसीबी के बाद पिछले सप्ताह बैंक ऑफ़ इंग्लैंड ने भी ब्याज दरें 0.25 प्रतिशत बढ़ा दी है। अक्टूबर वायदा सोने की कीमते पिछले दो सप्ताह से सीमित दायरे में कारोबार कर रही है जबकि सितम्बर वायदा चांदी के भाव में पिछले सप्ताह 2 प्रतिशत की गिरावट दर्ज की गई है। सोने के भाव में 0.35 प्रतिशत की मामूली साप्ताहिक गिरावट के साथ 59600 रुपये प्रति दस के स्तरों पर कारोबार करते रहे जबकि चांदी के भाव टूट कर 72500 रुपये प्रति किलो के स्तरों पर पहुंच गए। अमेरिकी बेंचमार्क ट्रेज़री यील्ड 4 प्रतिशत के ऊपर पहुंच गई जिससे डॉलर, जो सोने के विपरीत दिशा में चलता है, में बढ़त दर्ज की गई। हालांकि, अमेरिका के मासिक और साप्ताहिक रोज़गार बाजार के आंकड़े कमजोर दर्ज किये जिसके कारण से डॉलर पीछे हट गया और कीमती धातुओं के भाव को सपोर्ट मिला। पिछले सप्ताह के रोज़गार बाजार के आकड़ो के अतिरिक्त अमेरिका के सर्विस और मैन्युफैक्चरिंग पीएमआई के आंकड़े भी कमजोर दर्ज किये गए है, जो फेड को अपनी मौद्रिक नीति में बदलाव करने के लिए बाधित कर सकते है। रूस और सऊदी अरब द्वारा कच्चे तेल की आपूर्ति को टाइट करना अमेरिकी डॉलर को दबाव में रख सकता है। चीन द्वारा अपनी अर्थव्यवस्था को सपोर्ट करने के लिए अतिरिक्त राहत पैकेज चांदी की मांग मजबूत करेगा। हालांकि, क्रेडिट रेटिंग एजेंसी फिच द्वारा अमेरिका की रेटिंग घटाए जाने के कारण गोल्ड ईटीएफ की मांग घटी है जिससे सोने की कीमतों में ऊपरी स्तरों पर दबाव बना हुआ है। इस सप्ताह अमेरिका के मुद्रास्फीति और कंस्यूमर सेंटीमेंट के आंकड़े कीमती धातुओं के लिए महत्वपूर्ण रहेंगे।

तकनिकी विश्लेषण

इस सप्ताह कीमती धातुओं में तेज़ी रहने की सम्भावना है। एमसीएक्स अक्टूबर वायदा सोने में सपोर्ट 58500 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 61000 रुपये पर है। सितम्बर वायदा चांदी में सपोर्ट 70500 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 76000 रुपये पर है।