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Gold has surpassed its physiological level of 50,000 on the MCX where this sell-off may extend towards the level of 49,000. Despite the fact that the dollar index has fallen, gold prices have not risen much.

On the COMEX, gold has also surpassed the $1700 barrier, and is presently trading around its earlier support level of $1675, from which a previous surge to the level of $2080, which was the highest level of the year, was recorded.

Recent dollar strength and gold weakness may be directly linked to the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy, which has seen interest rates climb at every FOMC meeting since March of this year. This corresponds to the Federal Reserve's first interest rate increase, which happened in March as well.

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ITC Ltd’s AGM key highlight was the total FMCG portfolio’s addressable market potential of Rs. 5 lakh crore by 2030. This is the highest for any Indian FMCG company and provides a huge runway of growth for the ITC’s FMCG division.

Further, the current EBIT margins remain below its peer FMCG companies, hence, we expect significant volume growth combined with a rise in the company’s bottom line in the upcoming decade. Additionally, cigarette volumes have recovered and surpassed the pre COVID levels.

In the hotel segment, the company has launched 9 hotels recently and plans to add more properties in the coming quarters.

The paper segment is expected to gain due to the ban on plastic products and the Agri segment has a huge potential due to the current opportunity in exports and the sourcing advantages of the company.

In short, the company is firing on all cylinders, and being a cash-generating machine, it has the potential to grow both organically and inorganically.

Regarding the demerger and spinoff of hotels and the IT division, the company is open to suggestions and is constantly evaluating options to do the same. ITC Ltd. has been one of the best performers this year rising 36% compared to a negative 6% return of the Nifty 50 and has witnessed a whopping 13% return in one month.

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Is the Fed reserve reacting behind the curve?

US inflation is currently at 41 year high which has made people worried about the Fed rate hikes and its aggressive move. What will be its impact on the Indian Stock Market and global markets?

So First let us discuss how does inflation works? When there is inflation usually the central bank it is the Federal Reserve of the US, raises its policy rates in order to regulate the money flow in the economy. This helps in reducing the demand and decreases the purchasing power of people which further controls the flow of money in the economy.

Now as the US economy is a want-based economy and if they decide to curb inflation rather than focus on the growth of the economy then there may be chances of economic slowdown or recession. The extra aggressiveness from the Federal Reserve may lead to an increase in the Interest rate and a decrease in demand, the impact of which may be seen within 6 to 15 months.

Now talking about the global market so there may be a quite possibility of the Market reacting negatively.

Because of rising gas, food, and rent costs, tightening household budgets, and pressure from the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates swiftly, the probability of a recession increased, driving U.S. inflation to 9.1 % in June.

The government's consumer price index climbed 9.1 percent over the previous year, the highest annual gain since 1981, with rising energy prices accounting for over half of the increase. There will be a cascading impact on China due to the US Commodity market as the consumption supply will reduce and economies may suffer. There is also a rise in gasoline prices for countries like Europe and the US.

Did you know that the last time inflation was high was November of 1981 and there was a Global recession in 2008?

Let us now discuss its impact on the Indian Markets. As far as India is concerned we know that it is a need-based economy. The key impact will be seen in commodity prices. In India currently, the Inflation rate stands at 7.01%.

The commodity prices are going down. Agro commodity prices may go down if there is more farm production which will be beneficial for the decrease in their prices.

Now, Looking at the positive picture in the past Few months FIIs selling has also reduced. However, there may be a short-term impact of 6-9 months’ time and price correction may be their US yield can go from 7.36 up to 7.89 %. This is majorly due to falling interest rates & quantitative easing.

Impact on Indian Stock Markets:

Given that the difference in interest rates between India and the US is narrowing, India would lose some of its appeal as a destination for currency carry trade. A churn in emerging market equities due to greater returns in the US debt markets might potentially affect foreign investors' enthusiasm for investing in India, due to the outflows from Indian equities and debt markets, this might have an effect on currency markets.

Latest Updates:

In response to ongoing inflation as well as ongoing good job and pay growth, Fed policymakers have already indicated a second 75 basis-point increase in interest rates later in July. Traders had fully priced in a three-quarter percentage-point increase for this month even before the figures were revealed.

भारत में सोने पर बेसिक इम्पोर्ट ड्यूटी को 7.5 प्रतिशत से बढ़ाकर 12.5 प्रतिशत कर दिया गया है जिससे पिछले सप्ताह घरेलु वायदा बाजार में सोने के भाव, सप्ताह भर गिरावट रहने के बावजूद 3 प्रतिशत बढ़ गए। जबकि कॉमेक्स में सोने के भाव 1800 डॉलर के निचले स्तरों को तोड़ चुके है और सप्ताह में कीमते 2 प्रतिशत टूट कर 1794 डॉलर प्रति औंस पर पहुंच गई है।

अमेरिकी बेंचमार्क ट्रेज़री यील्ड 3 प्रतिशत पर है जबकि अमेरिकी डॉलर इंडेक्स में मजबूती बने रहने से अंतर्राष्ट्रीय बाजार में सोने के भाव में दबाव बना हुआ है। भारत में 5 प्रतिशत इम्पोर्ट ड्यूटी बढ़ने से कीमते सप्ताह में 2.5 प्रतिशत तेज़ हो कर 51800 रुपये प्रति दस ग्राम के स्तरों पर रही। औद्योगिक मांग घटने से चांदी के भाव कॉमेक्स में पिछले सप्ताह 6 प्रतिशत टूट कर 19.73 डॉलर पर रहे जबकि घरेलु बाजार में सितम्बर वायदा चांदी के भाव सप्ताह में 3 प्रतिशत टूटे कर 58000 प्रति किलो के निचले स्तरों पर है। सरकार द्वारा जारी आंकड़ों के अनुसार, भारत का व्यापार घाटा सालाना 6.53 अरब डॉलर से बढ़कर 24.29 अरब डॉलर हो गया है। चालू वित्त वर्ष के पहले दो महीनों के दौरान व्यापार घाटा बढ़कर 44.69 अरब डॉलर रहा, जो पिछले साल की समान अवधि में 21.82 अरब डॉलर था।

बढ़ते व्यापार घाटे और विदेशी फंडों के निरंतर देश से बहार जाने के कारण अमेरिकी डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपया 79 के निचले स्तरों पर लुढ़क गया है। भारत सोने का दूसरा सबसे बड़ा आयातक है जिसका व्यापार घाटे में बड़ा हिस्सा है। मई 2021 में 677 मिलियन अमरीकी डॉलर के मुकाबले, सोने का आयात बढ़कर 6 बिलियन अमरीकी डॉलर हो गया है। वर्ल्ड गोल्ड काउंसिल के अनुसार, भारत में सोने का आधिकारिक आयात मई में 98 टन पर रहा, जो इस साल अप्रैल में 27 टन और मई 2021 में 11.4 टन पर था।

इस सप्ताह अमेरिका से जारी होने वाले, फेड मीटिंग मिनट्स, एडीपी नॉन फार्म एम्प्लॉयमेंट चेंज और पैरोल के आंकड़े कीमती धातुओं के लिए महत्वपूर्ण रहेंगे।

तकनीकी विश्लेषण:

अगस्त वायदा सोने की कीमतों में 50000 रुपये पर सपोर्ट है और 52200 रुपये पर प्रतिरोध है। सितम्बर वायदा चांदी में 56000 रुपये पर सपोर्ट और 60000 रुपये पर प्रतिरोध है।

कीमती धातुओं के भाव में लगातार दूसरे सप्ताह भी गिरावट रही। सोने और चांदी के भाव में दबाव, अमेरिकी फेड द्वारा बड़ी ब्याज दर बढ़ोतरी की सम्भावना के चलते बना हुआ है।

पिछले सप्ताह फेड प्रमुख जेरोम पॉवेल ने कहा कि केंद्रीय बैंक की मुद्रास्फीति पर लड़ाई "बिना शर्त" है और इसको नियंत्रित करने के लिए हर संभव प्रयास करेंगे साथ ही कहा की 1 प्रतिशत ब्याज दर वृद्धि की संभावना पर भी विचार करेंगे।अमेरिकी डॉलर स्थिर बना हुआ है, और उम्मीदें अब जुलाई में 75-आधार-अंकों की बढ़ोतरी की ओर झुकी हुई हैं। बढ़ती मुद्रास्फीति पर अंकुश लगाने के उद्देश्य से दुनिया भर में सख्त केंद्रीय बैंक नीतियों के प्रभाव से निवेशक सतर्क है।

सोने के भाव 51300 रुपये से लेकर 50100 रुपये प्रति दस ग्राम के सीमित दायरे में बने हुए है। जबकि औद्योगिक धातुओं में बिकवाली का दबाव रहने के कारण चांदी में भी बिकवाली का दबाव बढ़ गया है। तेज़ी से बढ़ती हुई ब्याज दरों में वृद्धि आर्थिक मंदी की चिंताओं को बढ़ा रही है जिससे दुनिया भर के शेयर बाज़ारो में दबाव बना हुआ है। निवेशक सुरक्षित निवेश के अन्य विकल्प जैसे डॉलर की और रुख कर रहे है। पिछले सप्ताह अमेरिका, यूरोप और जापान से जारी फ़्लैश मैन्युफैक्चरिंग के आंकड़े अनुमान से कमजोर रहे जो आर्थिक मंदी का संकेत देते है।

तकनीकी विश्लेषण:

अगस्त वायदा सोने की कीमतों में 50000 रुपये पर सपोर्ट है और 51500 रुपये पर प्रतिरोध है। जुलाई वायदा चांदी में 58000 रुपये पर सपोर्ट और 62000 रुपये पर प्रतिरोध है।

Weekly Market Outlook

20 June-24 June 22

Bulls look for relief rally amid cool-off in energy prices

It was a brutal sell-off at Dalal street last week where headline indices Nifty and Sensex lost more than 5% with a break of key support levels. Weak global cues, a sharp rate hike in the USA, and aggressive selling by FIIs were key reasons for last week's turmoil.

The market has no major cues this week but bulls will look for a relief rally after a sharp fall in energy prices over the weekend. The brent crude oil prices have dipped to the $113 level after hitting a high of $125 per barrel. However, relentless selling by FIIs is a key concern for the Indian markets, where last week they sold more than 23000cr in the cash market. On the global front, the market has an eye on the Russia-Ukraine situation as there is some hope for any peace agreement. On the domestic front, the rupee movement and the development of the monsoon will be other important factors for the market.

Technically, Nifty has surrendered key support of the 15700 level and there is a risk of further downside, where 15000 is a key psychological support level then 14500 is the next major support therefore 15000-14500 is a key demand zone where we can expect a bottom formation. However, On Friday's trading session, Nifty formed a Doji candlestick formation followed by a sharp sell-off therefore low of the Doji candle, which is placed at the 15183 level, will act as an immediate support level. On the upside, 15500/15700 are immediate and critical resistance levels.

Banknifty has slipped below the psychological level of 33000 however 32250-32000 is an immediate and critical demand zone where we can expect a bounce back; below this, 30500 will be the next support level. On the upside, if 33000 is an immediate hurdle then 33750-34000 is the next supply zone.

If we look at the derivative data, then the long exposure of FIIs in the index future is a multi-year low of 13% whereas the put-call ratio is sitting at 0.75 level, therefore, the overall market looks oversold.

Weekly Market Outlook

13 June-18 June 22

Inflation is spooking market sentiments ahead of the FOMC meeting

Key Triggers:-

Bulls had a dreadful weekend after the US inflation figures hits a 40-year high, leaving US markets in a tizzy on Friday. The US FOMC's decision is due on 15th June and the market is fearing aggressive rate hikes amid the inflation monster. Bank of Japan will also announce its credit policy next week on 17th June. It will be salient to watch the behavior of FIIs' amid the panic in global equity markets as they have been selling relentlessly for the past 8 months.

On the domestic front, our CPI inflation will be announced on 13th June and WPI will be announced on 14th June.

Apart from this, movement of rupee and crude oil will be other important factors.

Technical Outlook:-

Nifty has slipped below its 20-DMA, raising concerns for a fresh round of selling where 16050 is the immediate support level while 15900-15700 is the critical support area. On the upside, 20-DMA of 16300 will act as an immediate hurdle while 16500 is the next major hurdle.

Bank nifty has also slipped below its 20-DMA which could lead to further selling pressure where 33800 is the immediate support level while 33000-32500 will be the critical support zone. On the upside, 20-DMA of 34800 will act as an immediate hurdle.

Derivative Data:-

If we talk about derivative data, FII's long exposure to index futures has come down to 21% which is extremely oversold zone while PCR is also trading at oversold level of 0.88. An oversold market is only a hope for the bulls, although the market may remain oversold for a long time.