Nifty 50 31 Jul 2026 Morning Market Summary

The year 2022 has been a roller coaster ride for the whole world. The Russia-Ukraine war affected the markets globally, featuring higher inflation, geopolitical variability and a rivalry between fiscal and monetary policy. Europe Energy Crisis has affected the economy badly. China’s economy is slowing down as the result of adoption of zero-COVID policy and weakening global demands.

After such market uncertainties, the market valuation is more appealing. While economic conditions are deteriorating and experiencing variability, the approach of entering the market will preferably be cautious positioning and preparing for entry points with gradual approach. Though the global markets have seen the decline in their values in 2022, some analyst predicts that the worst is yet to come. The Fed is expected to stop increasing rates in early 2023 to combat rising inflation.

The episode of uncertainties in the world of economy seems to be never ending. This has impacted Indian economy negatively. However, despite of the global crisis and growth forecast downgrade, India will remain one of the fastest growing key economies in 2023.

Fortunately, the Indian stock market is enjoying spring season when most of the global economy is slowing down. Wall Street brokerage Morgan Stanley has stated it as an "absolute upside with relative downsides" for the domestic equity markets with SENSEX rallying 10 per cent in a base case scenario in 2023 scaling to 68,500 points by December.

Global equity market is expected to be volatile in the upcoming year and defensive sector will be more preferable for investment with the strategy of stable earnings, low leverage and pricing power.

Bonds have never truly been an investment pick like stocks or crypto-currency. But looking ahead to 2023, there is a compelling argument for investing in this underwhelming sector of the market since bonds are cheap, they are expected to pay ever-richer interest, and yes, their deteriorated values are probably going to rise again.

Irrespective of your net-worth, risk tolerance or time horizon, the portfolio of 2023 should have focus on Alternative Investments. Alternatives may diminish inflation- and recession-induced volatility and boost returns more than dividend stocks alone because of their low connection to traditional asset classes like stocks and bonds.

Amid global market volatility, Indian market witnessed the launch of successful IPOs like Dream Folks services and Syrma Technologies that gave investors premium of 46% and 42% respectively in terms of listing gains. Similarly, around 70 companies launched SME IPO that witnessed post listing gains. In the upcoming year, IPOs of some famous companies are in pipeline, some of which are OYO, Byju’s, Swiggy and Go first.

Looking at the market conditions, there could be various methods to make a lucrative gain. Amongst all methods, making returns through listing gains in both SME Board and Main board IPO could be technique (definitely checking the fundamentals first). The second approach could be a long term approach by taking monthly entries in cash market but keeping yourself restricted in nifty250 and entering into companies that are intended towards growth and more ESG Centric. The third method can be used for swing trades i.e. entering into bull spread hedge when you are moderately bullish. And lastly, the most discipline approach could be by doing monthly SIPs and making sure that you are buying optimized worth of NAV.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das announces the credit policy after three days of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meetings. In this last meeting of 2022, the central bank raised the repo rate by 35 basis points to 6.25 percent from 5.95 percent earlier. This was the fifth rate hike by the central bank in the last eight months. Since May, RBI has increased the repo rate by 225 basis points to control inflation in the country, but even after all that, the Economy is still fighting with inflation, as said by Governor Shaktikanta Das in his speech.

Policy Highlights

In this policy update, real GDP growth is projected to be 6.8 percent, which is lower than the earlier estimate of 7 percent.

The RBI maintained its inflation forecast for FY23 at 6.7 percent.

The CPI inflation forecast for FY23 was retained at 6.7 percent.

Governor says the size of forex reserves is comfortable and has improved from USD 524 billion to USD 551.2 billion.

The agricultural sector remains resilient with a 6.8 percent higher winter swing than usual.

RBI decided to introduce single block and multiple debits UPI

A resident from India will now be allowed to hedge gold price risks at the international financial service center.

Market Reaction

Though the policy is in line with market expectations due to the hawkish tone of the RBI governor market slipped into negative.

The Indian rupee recovered and gained 3 Paise against the USD.

India's 10-year bond yield rises 8 basis points after RBI announcements.

Impact

After this rate hike by the RBI, banks will react to this policy by raising their interest rates for their loans, and ultimately, borrowers of these banks will be impacted by these rate hikes. So, now EMIs will go up and loans will get costlier for customers.

Mr. Das said the battle with inflation is not over yet; hence, we can expect another rate hike in February 2023.

कीमती धातुओं में पिछले सप्ताह भी तेज़ी कायम रही और घरेलु वायदा सोने के भाव 54200 रुपये प्रति दस ग्राम जबकि चांदी के भाव 67200 रुपये प्रति किलो के स्तरों पर पहुंच गए है। डॉलर में पिछले सप्ताह 1 प्रतिशत की तेज़ी रही और इसके भाव 82.45 रुपये रहे। वैश्विक अनिश्चितताओं के कारण कॉमेक्स वायदा में सोने और चांदी में मजबूती रही जबकि डॉलर, जो सोने के विपरीत दिशा में चलता है, में दबाव बना हुआ है। इस सप्ताह प्रमुख अर्थव्यवस्थाओं से जारी होने वाले आंकड़े कीमती धातुओं के लिए महत्वपूर्ण रहेंगे, जिससे बुलियन की कीमते सकारात्मक दायरे में बनी हुई है। निवेशकों की नज़रे इस सप्ताह फेड की बैठक पर रहेंगी जिससे कीमती धातुओं के भाव में नई दिशा देखने को मिल सकती है। हालाँकि, इस सप्ताह दुनिया भर में जोखिम की भावना थोड़ी बढ़ गई है क्योंकि चीन ने अपने सख्त कोवीड लॉकडाउन उपायों में काफी ढील दी है, दुनिया की दूसरी सबसे बड़ी अर्थव्यवस्था अब तेज गति बढ़ सकती है लेकिन, दुनिया में सख्त मौद्रिक नीति चीन की अर्थव्यवस्था के लिए चुनौती होगी। चीन द्वारा पिछले सप्ताह 2019 के बाद पहली बार रिज़र्व के लिए 32 टन सोना ख़रीदा गया है। चीन से पहले भारत, कजाकिस्तान, तुर्की और क़तर की केंद्रीय बैंक सोने की खरीद बढ़ा चुकी है। बढ़ती मुद्रास्फीति और सख्त मौद्रिक नीति के बीच प्रमुख केंद्रीय बैंको द्वारा सोने के रिज़र्व में बढ़ोतरी से कीमती धातुओं में तेज़ी बरक़रार रह सकती है।

तकनिकी विश्लेषण

इस सप्ताह कीमती धातुओं में तेज़ी बनी रहने की सम्भावना है। सोने में सपोर्ट 53700 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 55100 रुपये पर है। चांदी में सपोर्ट 66000 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 69000 रुपये पर है।

Last week, the Nifty, Sensex, and Banknifty all hit new highs, but there was some profit-taking at higher levels. We were outperforming, and now global cues are also supporting us. The good news is that the sluggish broader market has started to improve. Global cues continue to cause volatility, but this week the market's focus will shift to domestic cues like RBI policy and state election results. The outcome of the RBI policy is scheduled for 7 December, while the results of the Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh assembly elections will come on 8 December. On the global front, the US bond yields and the dollar index have fallen sharply, and markets will continue to watch their move from here. India is also benefiting from the low crude oil prices, which did not rise despite the drop in the dollar index. Institutional flows might be tepid in December; therefore, we may see major activity in the broader market.

Technical Outlook

Technically, the overall structure of the Nifty is still bullish, but some consolidation or a pullback can't be ruled out at higher levels. 18888 and 19000 are immediate resistance levels for the Nifty, and then 19300 will be the next target level. On the downside, 18600–18550 is an immediate demand zone, while 18440 is the next important support level.

Banknifty is also showing some fatigue at 43500, followed by a vertical rally, but there are no signs of weakness. 43000–42600 is an immediate and strong demand zone, while 42200–41800 is the next major support area. On the upside, 44000/44444 will be the next target levels.

If we look at the derivative data, then the long exposure of FIIs in index futures has come down to 66% from an elevated level of 75%, and the put/call ratio has dipped into the oversold territory from overbought territory in a matter of two days. Get higher earning opportunities in stock trading with fast technology and high limits.

Have you ever realized that while scrolling your YouTube, it starts suggesting videos of your interest or are aligned with your watch history? Did you ever realize how subtly your YouTube became so personalized and got curated as per your interests?

AI Based Algorithms is Working to make YouTube Feed Curated

Well, that is an AI-based algorithm that is effortlessly working to make your YouTube feed curated as per your interest and such that you could spend hours ignoring what’s going on all around. Interestingly, YouTube is using Machine Learning algorithms (subfield of AI which is able to learn and adapt without following explicit instruction) for the last 6 years and now it is evident enough that YouTube has become an indispensable part of our daily life. Furthermore, the suggestions made by the ML model start getting better eventually as you use it and that is how the machine learning models functions i.e. by training and testing its models with the user input and optimizing the accuracy. Similar implementation can be observed on digital platforms like Instagram, Meta aka Facebook, Netflix, Google Maps, Spotify and whatnot. In fact, the most revenue generating business for Meta i.e. ads is working on ML Algos.

From a bird’s eye view, Artificial intelligence is not a standalone tech but rather an umbrella with multiple techs under it such as Machine Learning, Deep Learning, Natural Language Processing, Fuzzy Logic, etc. Furthermore, the application of all these individual techs is observed in our daily life. For instance, audio/chat bots that one must have used on a phone app like IRCTC, are built on Natural language processing or Amazon Alexa. Thankful to the Indian start-up ecosystem, wherein tech enthusiasts across the nation are solving various ground problems from, agriculture to healthcare, using AI-based tech methods to solve the problem with the least time and team possible.

Lately, the acceptance of Artificial Intelligence has increased exponentially not just as an explicit model used in capstone projects but also with its various applications in day-to-day life. Knowingly or unknowingly, the adaptation of AI has increased so much that even an infant is familiar with Amazon Alexa/Siri. Therefore, the impact of AI in conjunction with IoT has become ubiquitous in daily life. On an organizational level as well, the use of AI has increased drastically post COVID wherein companies are using it for data and behavioral analytics. Taking forward, the recent developments in AI-based applications have made them even more demanding. Tools like auto image drawing, auto background remover, and AI-based vocal splitter are recent developments that have helped save time with very accurate results.

On the contrary note, the future sentiments of AI are apprehensive as it has a threat to the unskilled and semi-skilled workforce as the 4th Industrial revolution is more AI-Centric and intended towards improvising efficiency. However considering the recent development in the applications, AI and its aligned techs have proven to be a boon than a curse and therefore future regulation from authorities might help in avoiding the adversities that come along with such advancements. Briefly, the consolidated AI-based tech has helped save time, energy, and manpower with its various day-to-day applications, therefore, making it part of the daily lifestyle with even more favorable reception in the future.

After some booking profits in precious metals, there was a rally in the last week and gold prices rose by Rs. 800 to touch the level of Rs. 53900 per 10 grams, which is a three-month high. Silver also saw a gain of Rs 2400 and reached the level of Rs 65600 per kg. Gold prices have come close to their highest level of 56000 by breaking the limited range running for nine months. According to the World Gold Council, major central banks have bought large amounts of gold to avoid rising inflation. The demand for gold has increased by 28% this year, which reached 1181 tons by September 2022. Major gold purchases this year include the central banks of Turkey, Uzbekistan, India, and Qatar. The rupee has depreciated by about 10 percent against the dollar in 2022 due to a rise in interest rates, for which the RBI has bought gold to hedge. Gold prices have remained firm on the back of RBI buying this year apart from demand from jewelers in India.

In his statement given by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday, he has softened his stance on monetary policy. He has spoken of a lower rate cut in the upcoming Fed meeting to see the effect of the interest rate hikes on the economy in the coming year. However, the Fed chair cautioned that interest peak could be higher than expected earlier if inflation does not ease further.

What economic data indicates further?

The previous month's released retail sales numbers were up, while the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index is trading above its target, making inflation less likely to ease. The decrease in unemployment claims and jolts job opening data released from the US is better than usual, but the decline in the US dollar index continues to support the price of precious metals. The dollar index slipped below the 105 level while the US benchmark Treasury yield declined to 3.6 percent.

Technical Analysis

The rally in precious metals is likely to continue this week. Gold has support at 52000 and resistance at 56000. Silver has support at 62000 and resistance at 68000.