Nifty 50 31 Jul 2026 Morning Market Summary

Economists deal with ups and downs in graphs for a living, but when the Yield Curve gets toppled on its head, it causes all the mayhem. Its inversion is the stuff of nightmares for economists and this aversion towards its inversion isn’t without a reason. If we turn our clocks and look back to the past, we can see the flip of the curve has preceded every single recession, notably in the US, for the past half-century or so.

But before we dive deeper into why it is such a big deal for policymakers and investors alike, and how it helps them predict the state of the economy, first let's wrap our heads around what a yield curve is.

First and foremost, the yields in the discussion here are yields from Bonds, more specifically the highest rated  Bonds of any country, like the treasury bills in the US or Government bonds in India.

All these bonds offer a fixed coupon payment (Interest) to the holder. However, Yield and Coupon rates are entirely different. While Coupon Rate is applied on the face value of the bonds, Yield is the rate of return an investor gets on the price he paid for such bonds.

For Instance,

Face Value of a Bond- Rs. 1000/ -

Interest Rate- 6% p.a.

Current Market Price- Rs 1200/ -

Yield=Interest/Current Market Price

Yield= 60 /1200=5%

Thus, if the market price decreases, the yield increases, and vice versa, establishing an inverse relationship between the market price of a bond and its yield. For those who stick with the bond till its maturity, this yield won't matter much, but for people who buy and sell bonds at market prices, Yield is a quintessential parameter in deciding whether the bond is worth investing in or not.

Now that we have gone over what Yield means, let’s figure out what yield curve is. When the maturity period of different bonds (say from 3 months to 10 years) are plotted on X- Axis and their corresponding yields are plotted on the Y-axis, we get a ‘yield curve’.

Here is the yield curve of Indian Government bonds, from Overnight Bonds to Bonds with 40- Year Bonds.

The rationale behind this is called 'Liquidity Premium Theory'. Investors who are investing their money for longer periods will obviously demand higher coupon payments and at the same time, are willing to pay a lower price.

These two factors result in a higher yield for long-term bonds, thus giving the yield curve is rising slope.

But when this curve gets inverted, it can get all tipsy-turvy. The inversion is caused when Long Term Yield is lower than the Short term Yield.

This happens when Investors start investing in long-term Bonds resulting in an increase in their prices, which consequents in a decrease in the long-term yield.

This isn’t a good situation for an Economy to be in, because a preference toward long-term bonds indicates that investors don’t have strong confidence in the economy’s short-term prospects and want to secure their long-term payments, at the cost of earning better returns.

And, this preference toward bonds over equity results in a decline in equity investments. As a consequence, economic activities plummet, which ultimately worsens the blow to the economy, as it spirals down toward a gloomy spell of recession.

Make no mistake, the inversion of the yield curve is not the cause of a recession, but it's merely a predictor of it and a very good one at that. Economists all over the globe have long ago recognized it as one of the crucial indicators of economic health, and now that you have apprehended why it is so highly regarded, keep an eye out for the next inversion. It might be closer than you think…Until next time.

प्रमुख केंद्रीय बैंको द्वारा कठोर मौद्रिक नीति को लगातार बनाये रखने की सम्भावना के चलते कीमती धातुओं में पिछले सप्ताह बिकवाली का दबाव रहा। पिछले तीन सप्ताह में सोना अपने उच्चतम स्तर से 3000 रुपए प्रति दस ग्राम और चांदी हाल के उच्च स्तरों से 8000 रुपए प्रति किलो तक सस्ती हो चुकी है। अमेरिका से जारी मुद्रास्फीति के आंकड़ों में कीमती धातुओं के भाव के लिए मिश्रित रुझान रहा जिसने अर्थव्यवस्था और मौद्रिक नीति के मार्ग पर कुछ अनिश्चितता पैदा कर दी है, साथ ही अमेरिकी डॉलर इंडेक्स में भी बढ़त देखने को मिली है। जनवरी माह के लिए अमेरिका के वार्षिक मुद्रास्फीति के आंकड़े पिछले माह की तुलना में कम रहे जबकि मासिक मुद्रास्फीति में बढ़ोतरी दर्ज की गई है। भारत के थोक और खुदरा मुद्रास्फीति के आकड़ो में भी साल-दर-साल बढ़ोतरी दर्ज की गई है। मुद्रास्फीति के आकड़ो के बाद निवेशक प्रतीक्षा में है कि फेडरल रिजर्व डेटा पर कैसे प्रतिक्रिया करेगा, यह ध्यान रखते हुए कि फेड ने मुद्रास्फीति के खिलाफ बड़े पैमाने पर बयानबाजी की है। मुद्रास्फीति एक स्तर पर स्थिर बनी हुई है जिससे फेड के निकट भविष्य के लिए ब्याज दरों में वृद्धि जारी रहने की संभावना है। लेकिन, ब्याज दरों में आगे भी बढ़ोतरी इनवर्टेड यील्ड कर्व के अंतर को बढ़ा सकता है जो आर्थिक मंदी की और संकेत पहले से दे रहा है, जिससे कीमती धातुओं में गिरावट सीमित रह सकती है। पिछले सप्ताह अमेरिकी पीपीआई और बेरोजगारी दावों के आंकड़े उम्मीद से बेहतर आने से कीमती धातुओं पर बिकवाली का दबाव बढ़ता दिखा। हालांकि, फिली फेड मैन्युफैक्चरिंग इंडेक्स कमजोर बना रहा, जो अमेरिका में धीमी विनिर्माण गतिविधि का संकेत देता है, जिसने बुलियन की कीमतों को निचले स्तर पर समर्थन दिया। निकट भविष्य में कीमती धातुओं में गिरावट का रुझान रह सकता है क्योंकि निवेशक आगे कठोर मौद्रिक नीति की उम्मीद कर रहे हैं।इस सप्ताह फेड बैठक के मिनट्स और अमेरिका की जीडीपी के आंकड़े कीमती धातुओं के लिए महत्वपूर्ण रहेंगे।

तकनिकी विश्लेषण:

इस सप्ताह कीमती धातुओं में बिकवाली का दबाव बने रहने की सम्भावना है। सोने में सपोर्ट 55400 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 56700 रुपये पर है। चांदी में सपोर्ट 63000 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 66500 रुपये पर है।

1. Introduction

Financial markets are where people buy and sell different types of assets, like stocks and bonds. These markets are essential because they help determine how much things are worth, make it easier to buy and sell assets, and provide opportunities for people to invest and grow their money.

2. Capital Markets

Definition: Capital markets are places where you can trade long-term investments, like stocks and bonds. They help companies and governments raise money for long-term projects or operations.

Types:

• Stock Markets: This is where you buy and sell shares of companies. Each share represents a small ownership stake in the company. In India, major stock markets include the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange (NSE).
  Example: If you buy shares of Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) on the NSE, you are participating in the stock market. Your money helps TCS grow, and you may benefit if the company does well.
• Bond Markets: Here, you can buy and sell bonds, which are like loans given to companies or governments. When you buy a bond, you are lending money to the issuer in exchange for regular interest payments and the return of the loan amount at maturity.
  Example: Investing in Indian government bonds is an example of participating in the bond market. These bonds are considered safe because they are backed by the government.

3. Money Markets

Definition: Money markets are for short-term borrowing and lending. These transactions usually last less than a year. They help manage day-to-day cash needs and provide a place to invest surplus cash safely.

Types:

• Treasury Bills (T-Bills): These are short-term government securities with maturities of up to one year. They are low-risk investments.
  Example: If you invest in a 90-day T-Bill issued by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), you're lending money to the government for 90 days and getting a small return in interest.
• Commercial Paper: This is short-term, unsecured debt issued by companies to raise money quickly. It’s usually used for short-term needs.
  Example: A company might issue commercial paper to cover its immediate expenses, like paying suppliers.
• Certificates of Deposit (CDs): These are savings accounts with a fixed term and interest rate, offered by banks.
  Example: Depositing money in a 6-month CD at a bank means you’ll earn interest over six months before you can withdraw your money.

4. Derivatives Markets

Definition: Derivatives markets involve trading contracts whose value depends on the value of other assets, such as stocks or commodities. These contracts are used to manage risk or speculate on future price movements.

Types:

• Futures Contracts: These are agreements to buy or sell an asset at a set price on a specific future date. They help businesses and investors manage price risks.
  Example: If you agree to buy Nifty futures, you’re committing to buy the Nifty 50 index at a set price on a future date.
• Options Contracts: These give you the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a specified price before a certain date.
  Example: If you buy an option to purchase shares of Infosys at ₹1,500, you can choose to buy Infosys shares at this price before the option expires.

5. Forex Markets

Definition: Forex (foreign exchange) markets involve buying and selling currencies. This market is the largest in the world and operates 24 hours a day.

Types:

• Spot Market: Currencies are bought and sold for immediate delivery.
  Example: If you exchange Indian rupees for US dollars at the current rate, you’re participating in the spot market.
• Forward Market: Currencies are traded for delivery at a future date based on a predetermined rate.
  Example: If a company plans to buy US dollars in three months, it might enter into a forward contract to lock in the current exchange rate.

6. Commodities Markets

Definition: Commodities markets involve trading raw materials or primary products. These markets help in setting prices and managing risks related to physical goods.

Types:

• Agricultural Commodities: Includes products like grains, coffee, and cotton.
  Example: Trading futures contracts for wheat helps farmers and traders lock in prices and manage risks related to crop production.
• Energy Commodities: Includes oil and natural gas.
  Example: Trading crude oil futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) allows companies to hedge against future price changes in oil.
• Metals: Includes precious metals like gold and silver, as well as industrial metals like copper.
  Example: Buying gold futures can be a way to invest in gold or hedge against inflation.

 Conclusion

Each financial market serves a unique purpose and caters to different investment needs. Understanding these markets helps you make better investment decisions and manage risks effectively. Whether you’re interested in stocks, bonds, currencies, or commodities, knowing how each market works can help you navigate the financial world more confidently.

एमसीएक्स सोने और चांदी के भाव में ऊपरी स्तरों पर दबाव रहा। चांदी की कीमतों में पिछले सप्ताह 1 प्रतिशत से अधिक की गिरावट दर्ज की गई है जबकि सोने में मामूली बढ़त दर्ज की गई है। मुद्रास्फीति अभी बड़ी हुई है और इसको कम करने के लिए फेड के सदस्यों द्वारा आगे भी ब्याज दर वृद्धि होते रहने का अनुमान जताया है। फेड चेयर पॉवेल ने, 2022 में लगातार हुई ब्याज दर वृद्धि तक अमेरिका में अवस्फीति की परिस्थिति को बताया, और आगे भी ब्याज दर वृद्धि करने का समर्थन किया है। अमेरिका से जारी होने वाले रोज़गार बाजार के आकड़ो का बेहतर प्रदर्शन, लगातार ब्याज दर बढ़ोतरी की सम्भावना के अनुकूल है। जिससे सोने और चांदी की कीमतों में दो हफ्तों से दबाव बना हुआ है। कीमती धातुओं में दिवाली के बाद से शुरू हुई तेज़ी, लगातार ब्याज दर वृद्धि के लिए जगह होने से, थमने लगी है। हालांकि, ब्याज दर बृद्धि के कारण आर्थिक मंदी का डर अभी बना हुआ है। छोटी अवधि की अमेरिकी ट्रेज़री यील्ड, लम्बी अवधि की यील्ड  से अधिक हो चुकी है जो अर्थव्यवस्था के लिए खतरे के संकेत दे रही है। छोटी अवधि की ट्रेज़री यील्ड में बढ़ोतरी होने से कीमती धातुओं में ऊपरी स्तरों पर दबाव बना हुआ है। बांड यील्ड में बढ़ोतरी होने से अमेरिकी डॉलर इंडेक्स में सुधार हुआ है। वर्ल्ड गोल्ड कॉउंसिल के मुताबिक पिछले साल प्रमुख केंद्रीय बैंको द्वारा सोने की खरीद अब तक के उच्च स्तरों पर है। यूरोपीय बैंकों ने सोने की बिक्री बंद कर दी और रूस, तुर्की और भारत जैसी उभरती हुई अर्थव्यवस्थाओं ने खरीदारी की है। केंद्रीय बैंको का रुझान सोने की खरीद पर बढ़ा है क्योंकि अशांत समय में यह अपना मूल्य बनाए रखता है, और मुद्राओं और बांड के विपरीत, यह किसी भी जारीकर्ता या सरकार पर निर्भर नहीं है।

इस सप्ताह अमेरिका से, मंगलवार को मुद्रास्फीति (सीपीआई), बुधवार को रिटेल सेल्स और गुरुवार को पीपीआई के आंकड़े कीमती धातुओं के भाव के लिए महत्वपूर्ण रहेंगे।

तकनिकी विश्लेषण

इस सप्ताह कीमती धातुओं में दबाव बने रहने की सम्भावना है। सोने में सपोर्ट 56000 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 57400 रुपये पर है। चांदी में सपोर्ट 65000 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 69000 रुपये पर है।

RBI MPC Highlights 23

Governor Shaktikanta Das announced the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) decision on the RBI. Here are the Key RBI MPC Highlights

“Never lose your faith in the destiny of India.”

- Governor Shaktikanta Das

1. RBI MPC raise the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.50% on Wednesday.

2. The Governor says that while inflation is expected to moderate in FY24 it will rule above the 4% target-

The Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has stated that although inflation is expected to decrease in financial year 24, it may still exceed the target of 4%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also revised its global growth projections for the years 2022 and 2023, indicating an upward trend.

3. The Governor says the Indian economy remains resilient.-

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor reported that capacity utilization increased to 74.5% in the second quarter, indicating positive growth in the private sector. Investment activity continues to show improvement, with non-food bank credit growing by 16.7% as of January 27, 2023, and robust growth in fixed investment seen in November and December. Despite a decline in merchandise exports, the indicators of fixed investment are showing signs of strength. The governor also stated that there are indications of additional capacity being created in the private sector.

4. RBI GOV says real GDP growth for FY24 is projected at 6.4%-

According to Das, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for the fiscal year 2023 is expected to be 6.5%, with the fourth quarter estimated to be at 5.7%. There is a considerable amount of uncertainty regarding the trajectory of global commodity prices. Commodity prices are likely to remain high with the easing of Covid-19 restrictions, and this could result in the pass-through of commodity prices keeping core inflation elevated. The low volatility of the Indian rupee compared to other currencies will limit the impact of imported price pressures. The average crude oil basket is projected to be $95 per barrel.

5. RBI projects retail inflation lower at 6.5% for FY23 from 6.7%; 5.3% for the next fiscal-

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to reach 5.3% in fiscal year 24. Inflation is expected to be at 5% in the first quarter, 5.4% in the second and third quarters, and 5.6% in the fourth quarter. There is concern about the persistent nature of core inflation and it is crucial to see a clear decrease in inflation. It is imperative to maintain a strong commitment to reducing CPI inflation. The monetary policy must be adjusted accordingly to ensure a sustainable reduction in inflation.

6. The RBI has reported that system liquidity remains in surplus, although it has diminished in comparison to previous levels. The central bank has stated that it will remain agile and ready to cater to the productive requirements of the economy. To ensure proper functioning, the RBI will carry out operations on both sides of the liquidity adjustment framework as necessary. In line with this, the RBI has proposed restoring the market hours of the G-Sec market to 9 am to 5 pm. additionally, the RBI has suggested expanding G-Sec lending and borrowing activities to further enhance market liquidity.

7. The current account deficit (CAD) for H1FY23 was 2.2% of GDP, and it will moderate in H2FY23.

Regulatory organizations would receive recommendations from RBI on how to safeguard against the effects of climate change, according to Das. General guidelines for accepting green deposits, Framework for disclosing financial risks associated to climate change, and advice on stress testing and climate scenario analysis would be provided.

8. RBI GOV says MPC will continue to maintain a strong vigil on inflation outlook-

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India will continue to closely monitor the inflation outlook. Inflation is expected to remain at 5.6% in the fourth quarter of the financial year 2023. Although the policy rate has increased, it still remains lower than its pre-pandemic levels. When taking inflation into consideration, the policy rate is still lower than its pre-pandemic level. In general, the overall monetary conditions continue to be supportive of the economy.

9. Other Measures to be taken by RBI-RBI proposes to allow some foreign travelers and inbound travelers in India to use UPI for merchant payments. RBI To Launch QR Code-Based Coin Vending Machines that will issue coins against debits to customer's UPI-linked accounts.

The Reaction of the Market

Following the Reserve Bank of India's announcement of a lesser-than-anticipated interest rate increase, Indian equities were trading higher on Wednesday. As of 10:06 a.m. IST, the S&P BSE Sensex was up 0.68% to 60,695.09, while the Nifty 50 index was up 0.72% at 17,849.85.

Indian government bond rates increased slightly on Wednesday as a result of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintaining its monetary stance while raising the repo rate as anticipated. As of 11:30 IST, the benchmark 10-year yield was 7.3435 percent. Prior to the policy decision, it was trading at 7.3124% after Tuesday's closing price of 7.3102%.

Rupee prices were unchanged at 82.69 to the dollar. The RBI MPC's decision to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points had no significant effect on the currency since the markets had already priced it in.

भारतीय यूनियन बजट में चांदी और चांदी डोर पर इम्पोर्ट ड्यूटी बढ़ा दी गई है। चांदी पर इम्पोर्ट ड्यूटी, सोने की इम्पोर्ट ड्यूटी के बराबर करने के लिए की गई है, जिससे कीमती धातुओं में इम्पोर्ट ड्यूटी का स्ट्रक्चर सामान रहे। हालांकि, उपकर में बदलाव करके, सोने में इम्पोर्ट ड्यूटी यथावत रखी गई है। इम्पोर्ट ड्यूटी बढ़ाने के बाद, सोने और चांदी  में बढ़ोतरी देखि गई।  चांदी में कुल इम्पोर्ट ड्यूटी बढ़ा कर 15 प्रतिशत कर दी गई है, जो सोने की ड्यूटी के बराबर है। कीमती धातुओं से बनी ज्वेलरी पर ड्यूटी 22 प्रतिशत से बढ़ा कर 25 प्रतिशत कर दी गई है। हालांकि, अमेरिकी फेड की बैठक के बाद कीमती धातुओं में हेवेन मांग देखि गई। फेड द्वारा अपेक्षाकृत कम, 25 आधार अंको की बढ़ोतरी की गई जिससे सोने की कीमते एमसीएक्स में 58800 प्रति दस ग्राम और चांदी 72700 रुपए प्रति किलो के स्तरों को छू गई। हालांकि, ब्याज दरों के चरम स्तर को फेड ने अनिश्चित बताया है जिससे सप्ताह के अंत में डॉलर इंडेक्स में बढ़त रही और कीमती धातुओं में मुनाफा वसूली हावी हुई। हालांकि, अमेरिकी अर्थव्यवस्था की धीमी विकास दर, फेड को इस साल के मध्य तक ब्याज दरों में बढ़ोतरी रोकने और इसको घटाने के लिए बाधित कर सकता है। यूरोपियन सेंट्रल बैंक और बैंक ऑफ़ इंग्लैंड द्वारा ब्याज दरों में बढ़ोतरी से भी अमेरिकी डॉलर में दबाव बना हुआ है, जो कीमती धातुओं को सपोर्ट कर रहा है। केंद्रीय बैंको की लगातार ब्याज दर बढ़ोतरी से वैश्विक अर्थव्यवस्था दबाव में है, जिससे सोने में सेफ हेवेन मांग बढ़ी है।

इस सप्ताह फेड चेयर जेरोम पॉवेल और एफओएमसी मेंबर विलियम की स्पीच कीमती धातुओं के लिए महत्वपूर्ण रहेगी।

तकनिकी विश्लेषण

इस सप्ताह कीमती धातुओं में तेज़ी रहने की सम्भावना है। सोने में सपोर्ट 57500 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 59000 रुपये पर है। चांदी में सपोर्ट 68000 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 73000 रुपये पर है।