2 Big IPOs This Week! Tenneco Clean Air vs Fujiyama Power Systems | Analyst View & Verdict

Happy Forgings Limited is an Indian manufacturer specializing in designing and manufacturing heavy forgings and high-precision machined components. The company manufactures, designs and tests various products such as crankshafts, front axle carriers, steering knuckles, differential housings, transmission parts, pinion shafts, suspension products and valve bodies for different industries and customers.

OBJECTS OF THE ISSUE

• Purchase of equipment, plant and machinery.
• Prepayment of all or a portion of certain outstanding borrowings.

KEY MANAGERIAL PERSONNEL

Paritosh Kumar

Chairman and Managing Director of the Company. He has been associated with the Company since incorporation and accordingly has over 44 years of experience in the industrial sector. He is involved in the strategic decision making of the Company, oversees the Company’s business activities and is involved in setting up the governance standards of the Company.

Ashish Garg

Managing Director of the Company. He has approximately 17 years of experience in the industrial sector. He currently manages the Company’s business operations, financial performance, growth strategies and investments in different capacities and product developments.

Narinder Singh Juneja

Chief Executive Officer and Whole- time Director of the Company. He has over 35 years of experience in the industrial sector. Prior to joining our Company, he served as the assistant engineer with Krishna Forgings.

Pankaj Kumar Goyal

Chief Financial Officer of the Company. He has been associated with the Company since April 1, 2013. In the Company, he handles finance and accounts department. He has over 10 years of experience in the finance sector.

Bindu Garg

Company Secretary and Compliance Officer of the Company. She has been associated with the Company since November 2, 2021 and was appointed as the Company Secretary of the Company since July 12, 2022. In the Company, she handles the secretarial functions. She has over 18 years of experience in the finance and secretarial sector.

COMPANY PROFILE

• The company's customer base includes AAM India Manufacturing Corporation Private Limited, Ashok Leyland Limited, Bonfiglioli Transmissions Private Limited, Dana India, IBCC Industries (India) Private Limited, International Tractors Limited, JCB India Limited, Liebherr CMCtec India Private Limited, Mahindra & Mahindra Limited, Meritor HVS AB, Meritor Heavy Vehicle Systems Cameri SPA, SML ISUZU Limited, Swaraj Engines Limited and others.
• With over 40 years of experience of manufacturing and supplying quality and complex components according to customers' specifications, it has emerged as a leading player in the domestic crank shaft manufacturing industry with the second largest production capacity.
• The company has served customers in various regions including Brazil, Italy, Japan, Spain, Sweden, Thailand, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States of America.
• Happy Forging Limited has three manufacturing facilities, two in Kanganwal and one in Dugri, all located in Ludhiana, Punjab. As of FY2023, the operational revenue of the company has increased by 43.02%.

COMPETITIVE STRENGTHS

• Fourth largest engineering-led manufacturer of complex and safety-critical, heavy forged, and high precision machined components in India.
• Integrated manufacturing operations coupled with in-house product and process design capabilities. Diversified business model, well placed to take advantage of potential alternative engine technologies. Long-standing relationships with customers across industries.
• Track record of consistently building capabilities and infrastructure, with a focus on capital efficiency.
• Experienced Promoters and senior management team.

KEY STRATEGIES

• Leverage in-house engineering and product development capabilities.
• Foray into light weight forging and machining with the introduction of aluminum components. Increase the wallet share and acquire new business.
• Capitalize on increasing demand from international markets to grow exports. Expand capacity at its existing manufacturing facilities.

KEY CONCERNS

• Its business largely depends upon its top 10 customers.
• The company does not have agreements having commitment on the part of its customers. It depends on a few suppliers for the supply of steel, its primary raw material.
• Its business is dependent on the performance of certain industries, particularly commercial vehicles. It faces competition in India and overseas in its business.
• Due to the geographic concentration of its manufacturing facilities, its operations are susceptible to local and regional factors.
• Pricing pressure from its customers may adversely affect its business.

COMPARISON WITH LISTED INDUSTRY PEERS (AS ON 31ST MARCH 2023)

FINANCIALS (RESTATED CONSOLIDATED)

OUTLOOK & VALUATION

Happy Forging is a well-experienced and fourth-largest manufacturer of complex machine components. The company shares along-standing relationship with its large customer base. It has a diversified business model and a track record of consistent growth. The financial performance of the company has also been strong. Further, it has plans for capacity expansion and new business acquisitions.

However, investors should remain mindful of certain business dependencies. Reliance on the top 10 customers, potential pricing pressure from clients, and competition within the industry introduce some risks. Dependence on a limited number of suppliers also merits consideration.

Despite these considerations, Happy Forgings' attractive valuation of 36.44x P/E, coupled with its impressive track record and promising outlook, makes it a worthy investment option for investors seeking exposure to the manufacturing sector.

DISCLAIMER:

The information contained herein are strictly confidential and are meant solely for the information of the recipient and shall not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written permission of Swastika Investmart Ltd. (“SIL”). The contents of this document are for information purpose only. This document is not an investment advice and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. Before taking any decision to invest, the recipient of this document must read carefully the Red Herring Prospectus (“RHP”) issued to know the details of IPO and various risks and uncertainties associated with the investment in the IPO of the Company. All recipients of this document must before acting on the given information/details, make their own investigation and apply independent judgment based on their specific investment objectives and financial position. They can also seek appropriate professional advice from their own legal and tax consultants, advisors, etc. to understand the risks and investment considerations arising from such investment. The investor should possess appropriate resources to analyze such investment and the suitability of such investment to such investor’s particular circumstances before making any decisions on the investment. The Investor shall be solely responsible for any action taken based on this document. SIL shall not be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the information contained in this document and accept no responsibility for statements made otherwise issued or any other source of information received by the investor and the investor would be doing so at his/her/its own risk. The information contained in this document should not be construed as forecast or promise or guarantee or assurance of any kind. The investors are not being offered any assurance or guaranteed or fixed returns on their investments. The users of this document must bear in mind that past performances if any, are not indicative of future results. The actual returns on investment may be materially different than the past. Investments in Securities market products and instruments including in the IPO of the Company are highly risky and they are generally not an appropriate avenue for someone with limited resources/ limited investment and low risk tolerance. Such Investments are subject to market risks including, without limitation, price, volatility and liquidity and capital risks. Therefore, the users of this document must carefully consider all the information given in the RHP including the risks factors before making any investment in the Equity Shares of the Company.

Swastika Investmart Ltd or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither Swastika Investmart Ltd nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. Swastika Investment Ltd may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. We have not received any compensation/benefits from the Subject Company or third party in connection with the Research Report.

CORPORATE & ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE - 48, Jaora Compound, M.Y.H. Road, Indore - 452 001 | Phone 0731 - 6644000

Compliance Officer: Ms. Sheetal Duraphe Email: compliance@swastika.co.in Phone: (0731) 6644 241

Swastika Investmart Limited, SEBI Reg. No. : NSE/BSE/MSEI: INZ000192732 Merchant Banking: INM000012102 Investment Adviser: INA000009843 MCX/NCDEX: INZ000072532 CDSL/NSDL: IN-DP-115-2015 RBI Reg. No.: B-03-00174 IRDA Reg. No.: 713.

Suraj Estate Developers Limited is a real estate construction company. The company develops residential and commercial real estate in the South Central Mumbai region. The company's projects include Suraj Eleganza-II and ICICI Apartments, CCIL Bhavan(Phase-I up to 6th floor) and Tranquil Bay-I, Elizabeth Apartment and Mon Desir, St. Anthony Apartments, Lumiere and Tranquil Bay-II, Brahmsidhhi CHS, Jacob Apartments, Suraj Eleganza-I and Gloriosa Apartments and others.

OBJECTS OF THE ISSUE

• Repayment of the aggregate outstanding borrowings.

• Acquisition of land or land development rights.

KEY MANAGERIAL PERSONNEL

Rajan Meenatha konil Thomas

Chairperson and Managing Director of the Company. He has been associated with Company since its incorporation. He has received Lifetime Achievment Award from ET Now in the year 2022. He has over 36 years of experience in various aspects of real estate business.

Rahul Rajan Jesu Thomas

He holds a bachelor’s degree in Commerce from the University of Mumbai and corporate finance certificate from Harvard University. He has received 40 under 40 award from Realty+ in the year 2022. He has over 16 years of experience in various aspects of real estate business.

Shreepal Shah

Chief Financial Officer ofCompany. He holds a bachelor’s degree in Engineering from University of Mumbai and a master’s degree in Business Administration from University of Pune. Prior to joining Company, he was working with P.Raj & Co., Chartered Accountants providing business and finance advisory.

Shivil Kapoor

Company Secretary of the Company. He holds a bachelor’s degree in Commerce from Devi Ahilya Vishwavidyalya, Indore, bachelor’s degree in Law from Devi Ahilya Vishwavidyalaya , Indore and is a member of the Institute of Company Secretaries of India.

Dipen Sheth

Vice President - Sales of the Company. He holds a bachelor’s degree in Commerce from University of Mumbai. Prior to joining Company, he was associated with Kanakia Spaces Private Limited and Oasis Lifespaces Private Limited.

COMPANY PROFILE

• Suraj Estate has developed more than 10lakh square feet of land in Mumbai.

• In the residential portfolio, Suraj Estate is present in the "Value Luxury' and "Luxury' segments invariouspricecategorieswithunitvaluesrangingfromRs.10.00milliontoRs.130.00million.

• The company focuses primarily on value luxury, luxury segments , and commercial segments. SEDL is now venturing into residential real estate development in the Bandra sub-market.

• The company's projects include Suraj Eleganza-II and ICICI Apartments, CCIL Bhavanand Tranquil Bay- I, Elizabeth Apartment and Mon Desir, St. Anthony Apartments, Lumiere and TranquilBay-II, Brahmsidhhi CHS, Jacob Apartments, Suraj Eleganza-Iand Gloriosa Apartments and others.

COMPETITIVE STRENGTHS

• Established brand with along-standing presence in Value Luxury Segment and Luxury Segment in the residential real estate market of South Central Mumbai region
• Diversified portfolio encompassing product offerings across various price points in value luxury and luxury segments.
• Strong expertise in tenant settlement in redevelopment projects Experienced promoters and management team.

KEY STRATEGIES

• Enhance leading market position in the South Central Mumbai region by leveraging Upcoming Projects
• Continue to focus on redevelopment projects through asset - lightmodel
• Continue to expand Land Reserves in the South Central Mumbai region and opportunistically build a position in other sub-markets within the MMR region.
• Continue to selectively develop Commercial Projects in the South Central Mumbai region.

KEY CONCERNS

• Business is dependent on the performance of, and the conditions affecting, the real estate sub- markets in the South-Central Mumbai region.
• Any uncertainty in the title to real estate assets could have a material adverse impact on current and future revenue.
• The industry in which the company operates is competitive and highly fragmented resulting in increased competition that may adversely affect results.
• Any negative cash flows in the future would adversely affect cash flow requirements.

‍

‍‍

‍

‍

‍

‍

‍COMPARISON WITH LISTED INDUSTRY PEERS (AS ON 31ST MARCH 2023)

FINANCIALS (RESTATED CONSOLIDATED)

OUTLOOK & VALUATION

Since 1986, SEDL has been a real estate developer in the South Central Mumbai area, working on projects in both the residential and commercial sectors.The residential portfolio of SEDL is situated in the sub-markets of Mahim, Dadar, Prabhadevi, and Parel, which are part of the South Central Mumbai micro market. It has shown consistent growth over the stated periods, and the manage mentis optimistic that this trend will continue.

With extensive market knowledge ,SED Lisa market leader in the combined South-Central Mumbai submarkets; yet, the company must contend with competition from a range of national and regional real estate developers.

The IPO is coming at a P/E of 35.64 which looks fairly priced so we recommend applying for this IPO for listing gains.

‍DISCLAIMER:

The information contained herein are strictly confidential and are meant solely for the information of the recipient and shall not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written permission of Swastika Investmart Ltd. (“SIL”). The contents of this document are for information purpose only. This document is not an investment advice and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. Before taking any decision to invest, the recipient of this document must read carefully the Red Herring Prospectus (“RHP”) issued to know the details of IPO and various risks and uncertainties associated with the investment in the IPO of the Company. All recipients of this document must before acting on the given information/details, make their own investigation and apply independent judgment based on their specific investment objectives and financial position. They can also seek appropriate professional advice from their own legal and tax consultants, advisors, etc. to understand the risks and investment considerations arising from such investment. The investor should possess appropriate resources to analyze such investment and the suitability of such investment to such investor’s particular circumstances before making any decisions on the investment. The Investor shall be solely responsible for any action taken based on this document. SIL shall not be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the information contained in this document and accept no responsibility for statements made otherwise issued or any other source of information received by the investor and the investor would be doing so at his/her/its own risk. The information contained in this document should not be construed as forecast or promise or guarantee or assurance of any kind. The investors are not being offered any assurance or guaranteed or fixed returns on their investments. The users of this document must bear in mind that past performances if any, are not indicative of future results. The actual returns on investment may be materially different than the past. Investments in Securities market products and instruments including in the IPO of the Company are highly risky and they are generally not an appropriate avenue for someone with limited resources/ limited investment and low risk tolerance. Such Investments are subject to market risks including, without limitation, price, volatility and liquidity and capital risks. Therefore, the users of this document must carefully consider all the information given in the RHP including the risks factors before making any investment in the Equity Shares of the Company.

Swastika Investmart Ltd or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither Swastika Investmart Ltd nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. Swastika Investment Ltd may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. We have not received any compensation/benefits from the Subject Company or third party in connection with the Research Report.

CORPORATE & ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE - 48, Jaora Compound, M.Y.H. Road, Indore - 452 001 | Phone 0731 - 6644000

Compliance Officer: Ms. Sheetal Duraphe Email: compliance@swastika.co.in Phone: (0731) 6644 241

Swastika Investmart Limited, SEBI Reg. No. : NSE/BSE/MSEI: INZ000192732 Merchant Banking: INM000012102 Investment Adviser: INA000009843 MCX/NCDEX: INZ000072532 CDSL/NSDL: IN-DP-115-2015 RBI Reg. No.: B-03-00174 IRDA Reg. No.: 713.

Motisons Jewellers Limited is a Jewellery retail player with a history of more than 2 decades in the jewellery industry. It has experienced entrepreneurs as its Promoters with over 20 years of experience. Its jewelry business includes selling jewellery made of gold, diamond, kundan, and other jewellery products that include pearl, silver, platinum, precious, semi-precious stones, and other metals. Its other offerings include gold and silver coins, utensils, and other artifacts.

OBJECTS OF THE ISSUE

• Funding the working capital requirements of the Company.
• General corporate purposes.

Sandeep Chhabra                          

Promoter, Chairman and Whole Time Director of the Company. He has been associated with the company since 1997. He has more than two decades of experience in the business of manufacturing and retailing of jewellery. He mentors, guides and provides perspective to the Board and management of the Company for strategic planning and enriching the brand for long run.

Sanjay Chhabra

Promoter and Managing Director of the Company. He has been associated with the company since 1997. He has an experience of more than two decades in jewellery industry. Being a part of the top management, Mr. Sanjay Chhabra is responsible for devising long-term business plans, new business initiatives and achieving customer service excellence.

Laksh Chhabra

Joint Managing Director of the Company. He has joined the Company in 2022. He has entered into the business with innovation driven vision and is currently responsible for finance and accounting operations.

Kaustubh Chhabra

Chief Financial Officer of the Company. He holds bachelor’s degree in administration from Kalinga University, Raipur. He has the experience of 5 years. Prior to joining this Company, he has worked as Director of Finance in Khyati Gems DMCC, Dubai. He joined the Company in July 2022.

Naresh Kumar Sharma

Company Secretary and Compliance Officer of the Company. He joined the Company as the Company Secretary and Compliance Officer in September 2023. He has 18 years of experience in secretarial sector. He is responsible for undertaking various functions in the Company including ensuring conformity with the regulatory provisions applicable to the Company.

COMPANY PROFILE

• The Company started its jewellery business in 1997 with a single showroom in Jaipur, Rajasthan and since then, it expanded its network of showrooms and the product portfolio and currently operates 4 showrooms under the “Motisons” brand, located across the city of Jaipur, Rajasthan.
• In addition to selling products at showrooms, it also sells its products through online platform. The Company primarily source finished jewellery from third-party suppliers located across India. Additionally, to cater to the increasing demand in the market, it also engage artisans on job work basis and has its own manufacturing facilities located in Jaipur, Rajasthan.
• Its product profile includes traditional, contemporary, and combination designs across jewellery lines.
• It  has a dedicated design team, focused on developing new products and designs that meet customers’
• requirements.

COMPETITIVE STRENGTHS

• Established brand name with heritage and a legacy of over two decades. Strategic location of showrooms.
• Diversified product portfolio.
• Established systems and procedures to mitigate risks and efficiencies in inventory management. Promoters with strong leadership and a demonstrated track record.

KEY CONCERNS

• The Company is heavily dependent on third parties for supplying its products. All its four showrooms are in one geography namely Jaipur, and Rajasthan.
• It operates in a highly competitive market. Its competitors include both organized pan-India
• Jewellers as well as unorganized local players.
• Any customer complaints or negative publicity or concerns about the purity and quality of its products may have an adverse effect on its business.
• Under-utilization of manufacturing capacity may have a negative impact on the future financial condition of the Company.
• Its income and sales are subject to seasonal fluctuations.

COMPARISON WITH LISTED INDUSTRY PEERS (AS ON 31ST MARCH 2023

FINANCIALS (RESTATED CONSOLIDATED)

OUTLOOK & VALUATION

Motisons Limited, a well-established brand exceeding 20 years in the jewelry industry with strategically located showrooms in Jaipur, Rajasthan, The company has a diversified product portfolio and has demonstrated a strong track record of growth.

Motison's commitment to retail network expansion and technology integration further strengthens its growth prospects. However, the highly competitive landscape and dependence on third-party suppliers present key challenges. Additionally, the company is susceptible to negative publicity and seasonal demand fluctuations.

Despite these considerations, the IPO's attractive valuation of 16x P/E offers a degree of risk mitigation. Considering Motisons' strong brand, proven track record, and growth plans, alongside

DISCLAIMER:

The information contained herein are strictly confidential and are meant solely for the information of the recipient and shall not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written permission of Swastika Investmart Ltd. (“SIL”). The contents of this document are for

information purpose only. This document is not an investment advice and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. Before taking any decision to invest, the recipient of this document must read carefully the Red Herring Prospectus (“RHP”) issued to know the details of IPO and various risks and uncertainties associated with the investment in the IPO of the Company. All recipients of this document must before acting on the given information/details, make their own investigation and apply independent judgment based on their specific investment objectives and financial position. They can also seek appropriate professional advice from their own legal and tax consultants, advisors, etc. to understand the risks and investment considerations arising from such investment. The investor should possess appropriate resources to analyze such investment and the suitability of such investment to such investor’s particular circumstances before making any decisions on the investment. The Investor shall be solely responsible for any action taken based on this document. SIL shall not be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the information contained in this document and accept no responsibility for statements made otherwise issued or any other source of information received by the investor and the investor would be doing so at his/her/its own risk. The information contained in this document should not be construed as forecast or promise or guarantee or assurance of any kind. The investors are not being offered any assurance or guaranteed or fixed returns on their investments. The users of this document must bear in mind that past performances if any, are not indicative of future results. The actual returns on investment may be materially different than the past. Investments in Securities market products and instruments including in the IPO of the Company are highly risky and they are generally not an appropriate avenue for someone with limited resources/ limited investment and low risk tolerance. Such Investments are subject to market risks including, without limitation, price, volatility and liquidity and capital risks. Therefore, the users of this document must carefully consider all the information given in the RHP including the risks factors before making any investment in the Equity Shares of the Company.

Swastika Investmart Ltd or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither Swastika Investmart Ltd nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. Swastika Investment Ltd may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. We have not received any compensation/benefits from the Subject Company or third party in connection with the Research Report.

CORPORATE & ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICE - 48, Jaora Compound, M.Y.H. Road, Indore - 452 001 | Phone 0731 - 6644000

Compliance Officer: Ms. Sheetal Duraphe Email: compliance@swastika.co.inPhone: (0731) 6644 241

Swastika Investmart Limited, SEBI Reg. No. :  NSE/BSE/MSEI: INZ000192732 Merchant Banking: INM000012102 Investment Adviser: INA000009843 MCX/NCDEX: INZ000072532 CDSL/NSDL: IN-DP-115-2015 RBI Reg. No.: B-03-00174 IRDA Reg. No.: 713.

फेड बैठक के बाद सोने की कीमतें प्रमुख स्तरों 2050 डॉलर से ऊपर चढ़ गईं और अमेरिकी डॉलर इंडेक्स 102 के निचले स्तरों पर पहुंच गया। फेडरल रिजर्व द्वारा ब्याज दरों में बढ़ोतरी नहीं की जाएगी और 2024 में ऋण लेने की लागत कम करने के संकेत दिए है। पिछले सप्ताह फेड ने अपनी इस साल की आखरी बैठक में ब्याज दरों को उम्मीद के मुताबिक यथावत रखा और अगले साल अनुमान से ज़्यादा बार ब्याज दरों में कटौती करने के संकेत दिए, जिससे कीमती धातुओं के भाव चमक गए और अमेरिकी डॉलर, जो चार महीने के निचले स्तरों पर पहुंच चुका है, के साथ बेंचमार्क ट्रेज़री यील्ड गिर कर 4 प्रतिशत के नीचे पहुंच गई है। लेकिन, सोने की कीमते अभी उच्चतम स्तर से दूर है क्योकि बाज़ार में यह अनिश्चिता बनी हुई है की फेड कब ब्याज दरें घटाना शुरू करेगा।

फेड ने कहा है कि ब्याज दरें अब 5.5 प्रतिशत पर पहुंच गई हैं, और केंद्रीय बैंक 2024 में कम से कम तीन बार दरों में कटौती करेगा जिससे ब्याज दरें घट कर 4.6 प्रतिशत हो जाएगी। फेड चेयरमैन पॉवेल ने मुद्रास्फीति पर जीत की घोषणा करना जल्दबाजी बताया, फिर भी उन्होंने कम मुद्रास्फीति परिदृश्य का अनुमान लगाया है। फेड फंड वायदा कीमतों  के अनुसार 70 प्रतिशत से अधिक संभावना है कि फेड मार्च 2024 में 25 आधार अंकों की कटौती करेगा। लेकिन, दरों में कटौती पर अनिश्चितता आने वाले महीनों में आशावाद को कम कर सकती है, क्योकि अमेरिकी अर्थव्यवस्था में मजबूती अभी भी मुद्रास्फीति में बढ़ोतरी का कारण बन सकती है।
‍

तकनिकी विश्लेषण :

इस सप्ताह कीमती धातुओं के भाव में तेज़ी रह सकती है। एमसीएक्स फ़रवरी वायदा सोने में सपोर्ट 60500 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 64000 रुपये पर है। मार्च वायदा चांदी में सपोर्ट 73000 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 78000 रुपये पर है।

एमसीएक्स में सोने की कीमते अपने उच्चतम स्तरों को पार कर चुकी है और स्थिर बनी हुई है। बढ़ती आर्थिक मंदी पर बढ़ती चिंताओं के बीच, एशिया भर से पर्चेसिंग मैनेजर इंडेक्स  (पीएमआई) आकड़ो ने सोने की सुरक्षित मांग को काफी हद तक मजबूत बना रखा है। नवंबर में सोना मजबूत रहा, क्योंकि बाजार को यकीन हो गया है कि फेडरल रिजर्व ब्याज दरों में और वृद्धि नहीं करेगा, और 2024 में दरों में कटौती शुरू कर देगा। लेकिन संभावित ब्याज दरों में कटौती का समय बाजारों के लिए अनिश्चितता का एक प्रमुख बिंदु बना हुआ है। सोने के साथ -साथ निवेशकों का भरोसा जोखिम सम्पत्तिओं में भी बढ़ने लगा जिससे सोना और सेंसेक्स अपने उच्चतम स्तरों पर पहुंच गए है। भू-राजनीतिक मुद्दों और उच्च ब्याज दरों के कारण जारी अनिश्चितता के कारण सोने और इक्विटी के बीच विपरीत संबंध टूट गया है, और इन मुद्दो के कारण वैश्विक अर्थव्यवस्था की वृद्धि धीमी हो गई है जिससे सुरक्षित आश्रय की मांग बढ़ गई है। वैश्विक अर्थव्यवस्था दबाव में है जबकि भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था फल-फूल रही है और विदेशी निवेशक भारतीय बांड में रुचि लेने लगे हैं जो निवेशकों को जोखिम भरी संपत्तियों की ओर भी आकर्षित कर रहा है। अमेरिका के तीसरी तिमाही के आंकड़े बेहतर दर्ज किये गए है और अगले साल ब्याज दर कटौती की उम्मीद से बेंचमार्क अमेरिकी ट्रेज़री यील्ड में गिरावट बनी हुई है जो सोने और चांदी के भाव को सपोर्ट कर रही है। अमेरिकी सकल घरेलू उत्पाद तीसरी तिमाही में 5.2 प्रतिशत वार्षिक दर से बढ़ रहा है, जो पहले बताए गए 4.9 प्रतिशत से संशोधित है और 2021 की चौथी तिमाही के बाद से सबसे तेज़ विस्तार है। मुद्रास्फीति के आंकड़े अब घटने लगे जिससे ब्याज दरों में कटौती जल्द शुरू होने के आसार बनने लगे है। पिछले सप्ताह फरवरी वायदा सोना 2 प्रतिशत तेज़ हो कर 62800 रुपये प्रति दस ग्राम और मार्च वायदा चांदी 3 प्रतिशत तेज़ हो कर 77800 रुपये प्रति किलो पर कारोबार कर रहे है। इस सप्ताह रोज़गार बाज़ार के आंकड़े कीमती धातुओं के लिए महत्वपूर्ण रहेंगे।

तकनिकी विश्लेषण

‍इस सप्ताह कीमती धातुओं के भाव में तेज़ी रह सकती है। एमसीएक्स फ़रवरी वायदा सोने में सपोर्ट 61800 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 64000 रुपये पर है। मार्च वायदा चांदी में सपोर्ट 74000 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 80000 रुपये पर है।

सोने और चांदी में फेड के मिनट्स जारी होने के बाद अमेरिका में थैंक्स गिविंग डे के चलते सिमित दायरे में कारोबार रहा। हालांकि, अमेरिकी ट्रेज़री यील्ड और डॉलर इंडेक्स में नरमी के कारण सोने के भाव को सपोर्ट मिल रहा है। जबकि यूरोज़ोन से जारी होने वाले मैन्युफैक्चरिंग पीएमआई के आंकड़े अनुमान से बेहतर दर्ज किये गए जिससे यूरोमें मजबूती पिछले सप्ताह भी क़ायम रहीऔर डॉलर इंडेक्स में दबाव रहा। रुपये में कमजोरी से भी सोने की कीमतों को सपोर्ट मिलाहुआ है।

नवंबर की शुरुआत से ही अमेरिकी ट्रेजरी यील्ड में भारी गिरावट देखी गई है, जो छह प्रतिशत या लगभग तीस आधार अंक से घट गई है। और, अमेरिकी डॉलर ने अन्य प्रमुख मुद्राओं के मुकाबले कमज़ोरी दिखाई है, जिससे यह सूचकांक 106 के उच्च स्तरों से गिरकर 103.70 से नीचे आ गया है,जो लगभग तीन प्रतिशत की गिरावट का संकेत देता है। फेडरल रिजर्व द्वारा दरों में निरंतर बढ़ोतरी की उम्मीदों और अगले वर्ष के लिए मुद्राबाजार वायदा द्वारा अनुमानित 85 आधार अंकों की कटौती की उम्मीदों से सोने की राह स्थिर बनी हुई है।

मुद्रास्फीति अनुमान की रिपोर्ट के मुताबिक, उपभोक्ताओं को अगले पांच वर्षों में लगभग 3.2 प्रतिशत की मुद्रास्फीति दर की उम्मीद है। इस अनुमान पर बारीकी से नजर रखी जाती है क्योंकि यह फेडरल रिजर्व के ब्याज दर निर्णयों को प्रभावित कर सकता है और अगर उम्मीदें ऊंची बनी रहती हैं तो मुद्रास्फीति के मजबूत होने पर लगातार चिंता को दर्शाता है।

तकनिकी विश्लेषण : इस सप्ताह कीमती धातुओं के भाव में तेज़ी रह सकती है। एमसीएक्स दिसंबर वायदा सोने में सपोर्ट 60000 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 62500 रुपये पर है। दिसंबर वायदा चांदी में सपोर्ट 71000 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 76000 रुपये पर है।