Oil Prices Steady Near Key Levels as Trump Signals Iran Deal: What’s Next for Crude?
Global oil markets are once again in focus. Oil prices steady near key levels as former US President Donald Trump indicated he prefers a nuclear deal with Iran, even while warning of consequences if talks fail.
At present, West Texas Intermediate is hovering near $66 per barrel, while Brent crude is holding below $72.
For investors, traders, and policymakers, this is not just another commodity headline. It could shape inflation trends, currency movement, and sectoral performance in India.
TL;DR
Crude prices are range bound near key resistance levels
US Iran negotiations are the biggest short term trigger
Any Hormuz disruption could sharply spike oil
Indian markets, especially OMCs and airlines, remain sensitive
Volatility is likely to stay elevated in the near term
What Is Happening in the Oil Market Right Now?
Oil prices have stabilised after weeks of geopolitical tension. Trump reiterated his preference for a nuclear agreement with Iran ahead of fresh talks, but also warned it would be a very bad outcome if no deal is reached.
Currently:
WTI crude near $66 per barrel
Brent crude below $72 per barrel
Markets pricing in diplomatic uncertainty
The energy market is balancing two opposing forces.
Bearish factors
Possible easing of sanctions on Iran
Expectations of global supply surplus
Profit booking after recent rally
Bullish factors
Middle East military build up
Risk to Strait of Hormuz shipments
Persistent geopolitical premium
This tug of war is why crude is stuck near key levels.
Why the US Iran Talks Matter So Much
Supply Risk Is the Core Issue
Iran is a major oil producer. Any shift in sanctions can quickly change global supply.
If talks succeed, more Iranian oil may enter the market
If talks fail, risk premium could spike sharply
Geopolitical tensions have already kept crude highly volatile this year.
Strait of Hormuz Is the Real Flashpoint
The biggest market fear is disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
Why it matters:
One of the world’s busiest oil shipping routes
Massive crude and LNG flows pass daily
Even temporary disruption can trigger price spikes
Recent Iranian military drills in the region have already pushed tanker rates higher, showing how sensitive the market is.
Key Price Levels Traders Are Watching
Right now crude is in a technically important zone.
WTI crude
Support zone: $62 to $64
Immediate resistance: $66 to $68
Breakout zone: Above $70
Brent crude
Support zone: $68 to $70
Immediate resistance: $72
Bullish trigger: Above $75
Until a clear geopolitical outcome emerges, crude may remain range bound but volatile.
Impact on Indian Markets
India imports more than 80 percent of its crude oil needs, which makes oil prices extremely important for the economy.
If Oil Rises Sharply
Negative impact on:
Oil marketing companies margins
Aviation stocks
Paint and chemical companies
India’s current account deficit
Inflation and RBI policy flexibility
Higher crude typically weakens the rupee and increases imported inflation.
If Oil Falls
Positive impact on:
OMC profitability
Airline earnings
FMCG and paint margins
India’s fiscal math
Consumer inflation outlook
This is why Indian equity markets closely track global crude moves.
Sectoral Winners and Losers in India
Likely Beneficiaries if crude cools
Aviation companies
Paint manufacturers
Tyre companies
Logistics players
Likely under pressure if crude spikes
Oil marketing companies in short term
Aviation sector
High energy intensive industries
For investors, tracking crude is no longer optional. It is a core macro variable.
What Should Investors Watch Next
1. Outcome of US Iran nuclear talks
This is the biggest immediate trigger. Any breakthrough could push oil lower, while a breakdown could trigger a sharp rally.
2. Movement in tanker rates
Rising shipping costs often signal tightening supply fears before prices react.
3. US inventory data
Weekly crude inventory numbers remain a key sentiment driver.
4. OPEC plus commentary
Production guidance from major producers can quickly shift the supply outlook.
Is This a Trading Opportunity?
For short term traders, crude is entering a headline driven phase.
Bull case
Escalation in Middle East
Hormuz disruption fears
Inventory drawdowns
Bear case
Successful US Iran deal
Global demand slowdown
Strong US dollar
This suggests range trading with sudden breakout risk. Long term investors should avoid knee jerk reactions and meaningfully track macro trends and sectoral impact.
How Swastika Investmart Helps Investors Navigate Volatility
In volatile macro environments like this, having the right research support matters.
Swastika Investmart stands out with:
SEBI registered research framework
Strong fundamental and technical tools
Dedicated customer support
Tech enabled investing platform
Focus on investor education
Whether you are tracking crude linked sectors or broader market opportunities, informed decision making is critical.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q1. Why are oil prices steady right now Oil prices are balancing between geopolitical risk in the Middle East and hopes of a US Iran nuclear deal, keeping them range bound.
Q2. What happens to crude if the US and Iran reach a deal A successful deal could increase Iranian oil supply and put downward pressure on global crude prices.
Q3. Why is the Strait of Hormuz important for oil markets It is one of the world’s busiest oil shipping routes. Any disruption can significantly affect global supply and prices.
Q4. How do crude oil prices affect Indian stock markets Higher crude raises inflation and import costs, hurting many sectors, while lower crude generally supports market sentiment.
Q5. Is this a good time to invest in oil linked stocks Investors should remain cautious and track geopolitical developments closely, as volatility is likely to remain high.
Conclusion
Oil prices steady near key levels reflect a market caught between diplomacy and disruption risk. The next big move in crude will largely depend on how US Iran negotiations unfold and whether supply fears intensify.
For Indian investors, crude remains a critical macro variable influencing inflation, currency movement, and sectoral profitability. Staying informed and disciplined is essential in such uncertain times.
If you want research backed insights and a reliable investing platform, Swastika Investmart can help you navigate volatile markets with confidence.
Honasa Consumer is the largest digital-first beauty and personal care ("BPC") company in India in terms of revenue. The Company has its flagship brand Mama earth. Along with that the Company has added five new brands to its portfolio, namely The Derma Co., Aqualogica, Ayuga, BBlunt, and Dr. Sheth's, and has built a 'House of Brands' architecture.
OBJECTS OF THE ISSUE
• Advertisement expenses towards enhancing brand awareness.
• Capital expenditure to be incurred by the Company for setting up new EBOs.
• Investment in the company's Subsidiary, Blunt for setting up new salons.
KEY MANAGERIAL PERSONNEL
Varun Alagh
Chairman, Whole-time Director and the Chief Executive Officer of the Company. He has been associated with the Company as a promoter and a director since September 16, 2016. Previously, he has worked with corporations such as Hindustan Lever Limited, Diageo India Private Limited for over a year and Coca-Cola India Private Limited.
Ghazal Alagh
She is a Whole-time Director and the Chief Innovation Officer of the Company. She holds a bachelor’s degree of computer applications from Panjab University, Chandigarh and a certification in software engineering from the academic council of the NIIT Academy, New Delhi. She has been associated with the Company as a promoter and director since September 16, 2016.
Raman Preet Sohi
Chief Financial Officer of the Company. He is responsible for establishing and executing the financial strategy of the Company. He joined the Company on April 27, 2020. Previously, he worked with Drums Food International Private Limited as the chief financial officer for a period of over a year.
Dhanraj Dagar
Company Secretary and the compliance officer of the Company. He joined the Company on May 11, 2022. He holds a bachelor’s degree of commerce from Bangalore University and a bachelor’s degree of law from Maneklal Nanavati Law College, Gujrat University. He was also admitted as an associate member of the Institute of Companies Secretaries of India.
COMPARISON WITH LISTED INDUSTRY PEERS (AS ON 31ST MARCH 2023)
FINANCIALS (RESTATED CONSOLIDATED)
COMPANY PROFILE
Honasa’s portfolio of brands with differentiated value propositions includes products in the baby care, face care, body care, hair care, color cosmetics, and fragrances segments.
The Company's success with Mama earth and its ability to identify and cater to emerging trends has enabled it to develop repeatable brand-building playbooks that have helped in G scaling its newer brands at a fast pace.
It has a dedicated in house innovation team, consisting of 47 members, that drives end-to-end ideation and execution of new product launches.
For manufacturing, it has set up an asset-light contract manufacturing model that gives it the benefit of economies of scale at small batch sizes while also providing the flexibility to scale up production as needed.
The Company makes its products available to its customers through omni channel distribution networks across both online and offline touch points.
COMPETITIVE STRENGTHS
Brand-building capabilities and repeatable playbooks. Consumer-centric product innovation.
Digital-first omni channel distribution. Data-driven contextualized marketing.
Ability to manufacture a diverse range of products and maintain optimal inventory levels. Founder-led company with strong professional management.
KEY STRATEGIES
Expand distribution and brand awareness. Incubate or acquire new engines of growth. Strengthen business efficiency drivers.
KEY CONCERNS
The company does not manufacture any of its products and relies entirely on third-party.
It has recorded losses in the past. Any losses in the future may adversely impact its business. The Company does not hold any patents over its product formulae and has not made any applications in this respect.
It faces intense competition which may lead to a reduction in its market share.
Subsidiaries that it has acquired in the past, have incurred losses for certain historical periods. The company incurs significant advertising expenses.
The company’s majority revenue comes from the sale of products under its flagship Mama earth brand.
OUTLOOK & VALUATION
Honasa Consumer is a new-age company that is well-known for its flagship brand, Mama earth. The company offers a diverse range of products under its portfolio of six brands.The company has brand- building capabilities and it follows data-driven, context utalized marketing.
However the financial performance of the company has been inconsistent, and it has reported losses in recent fiscals. Subsidiaries that it has acquired have also incurred losses. Additionally, the company does not manufacture its products and relies on third parties for that, and it also does not hold any patents over its product formulas.
The business' return on advertising has also been consistent for a few years, i.e., 2.5%, thus the company's client retention is very low. As it is a loss-making company, we cannot derive its actual P/E, but even after considering its outflow in the latest investment, the company is coming at an extremely high valuation. Thus, I will suggest to Avoid this IPO.
DISCLAIMER:
The information contained herein are strictly confidential and are meant solely for the information of the recipient and shall not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written permission of Swastika Investmart Ltd. (“SIL”). The contents of this document are for information purpose only. This document is not an investment advice and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. Before taking any decision to invest, the recipient of this document must read carefully the Red Herring Prospectus (“RHP”) issued to know the details of IPO and various risks and uncertainties associated with the investment in the IPO of the Company. All recipients of this document must before acting on the given information/details, make their own investigation and apply independent judgment based on their specific investment objectives and financial position. They can also seek appropriate professional advice from their own legal and tax consultants, advisors, etc. to understand the risks and investment considerations arising from such investment. The investor should possess appropriate resources to analyze such investment and the suitability of such investment to such investor’s particular circumstances before making any decisions on the investment. The Investor shall be solely responsible for any action taken based on this document. SIL shall not be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the information contained in this document and accept no responsibility for statements made otherwise issued or any other source of information received by the investor and the investor would be doing so at his/her/its own risk. The information contained in this document should not be construed as forecast or promise or guarantee or assurance of any kind. The investors are not being offered any assurance or guaranteed or fixed returns on their investments. The users of this document must bear in mind that past performances if any, are not indicative of future results. The actual returns on investment may be materially different than the past. Investments in Securities market products and instruments including in the IPO of the Company are highly risky and they are generally not an appropriate avenue for someone with limited resources/ limited investment and low risk tolerance. Such Investments are subject to market risks including, without limitation, price, volatility and liquidity and capital risks. Therefore, the users of this document must carefully consider all the information given in the RHP including the risks factors before making any investment in the Equity Shares of the Company.
Swastika Investmart Ltd or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither Swastika Investmart Ltd nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. Swastika Investment Ltd may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. We have not received any compensation/benefits from the Subject Company or third party in connection with the Research Report.
कीमती धातुओं में लगातार तीन हफ्ते बढ़ोतरी होने के बाद पिछले सप्ताह थोड़ी मुनाफ़ा वसूली रही और कीमते सकारात्मक दायरे में कारोबार करती दिखी। फेड की बैठक के पहले कीमती धातुओं में नरमी, खरीदारी करने के अवसर हो सकता है क्योंकि भू-राजनितिक तनाव अभी कम नहीं हुआ है और आगे इसके बढ़ने के आसार क़ायम है। भारत में दिवाली करीब होने से सोने -चांदी की खुदरा मांग अच्छी रहने के चलते हाज़िर बाज़ार से भी कीमती धातुओं को सपोर्ट मिला हुआ है। वही इस सप्ताह में फेड की बैठक है जिसमे फेड द्वारा मौद्रिक नीति पर हॉकिश टिपण्णी कीमती धातुओं में कुछ दबाव बना सकती है लेकिन, निवेश और हाज़िर मांग का सपोर्ट रहने के चलते कीमती धातुओं में निचला स्तर सिमित रहने का अनुमान है। हालांकि, इजराइल-अमेरिका और मिड्ल ईस्ट में बढ़ता हुआ तनाव सेफ हैवन मांग बढ़ा रहा है। ग्लोबल आर्थिक आकड़ो में भी पिछले सप्ताह सुधार देखने को मिला है। अमेरिका की जीडीपी और रोज़गार बाज़ार में मजबूती बनी हुई है वही बेंचमार्क ट्रेज़री यील्ड लगातार बढ़ रही है। यूरोप और चीन की अर्थव्यस्था में भी सुधार हुआ है। भूराजनीतिक तनाव और फेड द्वारा ब्याज दरों में वृद्धि, दो विपरीत ट्रिगर कीमती धातुओं के भाव में संतुलन बना रहे है।इस सप्ताह बैंक ऑफ़ जापान, बैंक ऑफ़ इंग्लैंड और फेड की मॉनेटरी पॉलिसी, और अमेरिकी पैरोल डाटा कीमती धातुओं के लिए महत्वपूर्ण रहेंगे।
तकनिकी विश्लेषण :
इस सप्ताह कीमती धातुओं के भाव सीमित दायरे में रह सकते है। एमसीएक्स दिसंबर वायदा सोने में सपोर्ट 59000 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 62000 रुपये पर है। दिसंबर वायदा चांदी में सपोर्ट 69000 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 73000 रुपये पर है।
इजराइल-हमास युद्ध की चिंताओं के कारण लगातार सुरक्षित निवेश की मांग ने सोने की कीमतों को तीन महीने के उच्चतम स्तर पर पंहुचा दिया है, जबकि अमेरिकी ब्याज दरों पर कुछ हद तक मिश्रित संकेतों ने डॉलर और ट्रेजरी पैदावार में तेजी को रोक दिया है। सोने में लगातार दूसरे सप्ताह जोरदार बढ़त दर्ज की गई, कॉमेक्स सोने का वायदा भाव 2,000 डॉलर प्रति औंस के स्तर के करीब आ गया है, क्योंकि मिडिल-ईस्ट में व्यापक संघर्ष की आशंका के कारण पारंपरिक सुरक्षित ठिकानों की मांग से सोने की चमक बढ़ गई है। डॉलर इंडेक्स और ट्रेजरी यील्ड में पिछले सप्ताह के अंत में आई कमजोरी से सोने को प्रोत्साहन मिला, क्योंकि फेडरल रिजर्व के अध्यक्ष जेरोम पॉवेल ने कहा कि पैदावार में हालिया बढ़ोतरी वित्तीय स्थितियों को सख्त कर रही है, जिससे फेड द्वारा अधिक कार्रवाई की आवश्यकता कम हो सकती है। जबकि पॉवेल ने अभी भी इस वर्ष कम से कम एक और ब्याज दर बढ़ोतरी के लिए दरवाजा खुला रखा है, बाजार ने उनकी टिप्पणियों को एक संकेत के रूप में लिया कि फेड ने ब्याज दरें बढ़ाने का काम पूरा कर लिया है। इससे अमेरिकी डॉलर इंडेक्स और बेंचमार्क ट्रेज़री यील्ड उच्च स्तरों से पीछे हट गई, हालांकि 10 साल ट्रेज़री यील्ड की दर अभी भी 5 प्रतिशत के स्तर के करीब बनी हुई है। भारत में त्योहारों का सीज़न शुरू होना और दिवाली करीब होने के कारण भी ज्वेलर्स की खरीद सोने की कीमतों को चमका रही है। पिछले सप्ताह, एमसीएक्स में दिसंबर वायदा सोना 2.2 प्रतिशत तेज़ हो कर 60700 रुपये प्रति दस ग्राम, और चांदी 1 प्रतिशत तेज़ हो कर 72400 रुपये प्रति किलो पर कारोबार करती दिखी।
तकनिकी विश्लेषण
इस सप्ताह कीमती धातुओं के भाव में तेज़ी जारी रह सकती है। एमसीएक्स दिसंबर वायदा सोने में सपोर्ट 59000 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 61800 रुपये पर है। दिसंबर वायदा चांदी में सपोर्ट 70000 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 76000 रुपये पर है।
IRM Energy Limited is a gas distribution company. The company is involved in developing, operating, and expanding of local natural gas distribution network. IRM Energy is a value-driven energy enterprise serving industrial, commercial, domestic, and automobile customers.
OBJECTS OF THE ISSUE
Funding capital expenditure requirements for the development of the City Gas Distribution network.
Repayment of all or a portion of certain outstanding borrowings availed by the Company.
KEY MANAGERIAL PERSONNEL
Maheswar Sahu
He is a Non-Executive Director of the Company and the Chairman of the Board of Directors of company. He had active involvement in handling various portfolios in Government including PSU management.
Karan Kausha
He is Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the Company on July 13, 2020. He has been associated with the Company since September 5, 2016. He has 16 years of experience in the field of General Management, Strategy, Business Development and Project Management.
Harshal Anjaria
Harshal Anjaria was appointed as the Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of the Company on July 13, 2017. He has been associated with the Company since July 11, 2016. He has been associated with the Company since July 11, 2016.
Shikha Jain
Shikha Jain was appointed as the Company Secretary and Compliance Officer of the Company on January 4, 2020 and November 7, 2022, respectively. She has been associated with the Company since September 2, 2019. She has over 5 years of experience in corporate secretarial and other related compliances.
COMPANY PROFILE
Company develop natural gas distribution projects in the geographical areas (“GAs”) for industrial, commercial, domestic and automobile customers.
The company has marked its presence in Banaskantha District in the state of Gujarat, Fatehgarh Sahib in the state of Punjab, and Diu & Gir-Somnath in the Union Territory of Daman & Diu and the state of Gujarat.
The company is fulfilling the natural gas requirements of 48172 domestic clients, 179 industrial units, and 248 commercial clients.
As of September 2022, the company has 216 CNG gas stations across its operating geographical areas.
The company has received an award of City Gas Distribution- Growing Company of the Year 2020 from the Federation of Indian Petroleum Industries.
Company supply natural gas to two primary set of customer segments that are CNG and PNG.
COMPETITIVE STRENGTHS
Exclusivity in CNG and PNG supply in the awarded geographical areas.
Diverse customer portfolio and distribution network of CNG and PNG.
Strong parentage, experienced board and management team and strong execution team.
Technology adoption and digital initiatives for efficient and optimal operations.
Connectivity to gas pipelines and establishing cost-effective gas sourcing arrangements.
Strong financial performance with consistent growth and profitability supported by healthy operating efficiency and favourable regulations.
KEY STRATEGIES
Expand company’s presence in existing and newer geographical areas through an improved captive distribution channel.
Infrastructure roll-out for development and operation of the new licensed geographical areas of Namakkal & Tiruchirappalli, Tamil Nadu.
Technology adoption to increase operational efficiency and enhance customer value.
Business integration for transition into a complete energy solution provider.
KEY CONCERNS
Transporting natural gas is hazardous and could result in accidents, which could adversely affect the company’s reputation, business, financial condition, results of operations, and cash flows.
The Company typically requires 15-18 months to generate revenue in its geographical areas. Any further delay in realizing revenue may affect projections, results of operations, and cash flows.
Its operations are restricted to defined geographical boundaries and the natural gas requirements in these regions may be affected by various factors.
Companies require various licenses and approvals for undertaking their businesses.
The company is heavily reliant on CNG and industrial PNG supply operations and any decrease in the sales may have an adverse effect on the business.
The company is dependent on Government policies for the allocation of natural gas and the cost of gas supplied for CNG and domestic PNG customers.
COMPARISON WITH LISTED INDUSTRY PEERS (AS ON 31ST MARCH 2023)
FINANCIALS (RESTATED CONSOLIDATED)
OUTLOOK & VALUATION
IRM has showcased consistent development of its gas distribution business in its key GAs. The company has a diverse customer portfolio and distribution network of CNG and PNG and a strong relationship with its customers. It has also reported strong financial performance in the last few years, except in FY23, when profit was impacted by a rise in gas prices due to geopolitical situations.
The company is still in the early stages of growth and may be impacted by unforeseen factors and other risks like limited geographic reach, government policies, delayed revenue generation, etc.
The issue is coming at a P/E valuation of 24.12x, which appears fairly priced. Thus, considering all these factors and the positive growth outlook, we will recommend a Subscribe rating to this IPO.
DISCLAIMER:
The information contained herein are strictly confidential and are meant solely for the information of the recipient and shall not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written permission of Swastika Investmart Ltd. (“SIL”). The contents of this document are for information purpose only. This document is not an investment advice and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. Before taking any decision to invest, the recipient of this document must read carefully the Red Herring Prospectus (“RHP”) issued to know the details of IPO and various risks and uncertainties associated with the investment in the IPO of the Company. All recipients of this document must before acting on the given information/details, make their own investigation and apply independent judgment based on their specific investment objectives and financial position. They can also seek appropriate professional advice from their own legal and tax consultants, advisors, etc. to understand the risks and investment considerations arising from such investment. The investor should possess appropriate resources to analyze such investment and the suitability of such investment to such investor’s particular circumstances before making any decisions on the investment. The Investor shall be solely responsible for any action taken based on this document. SIL shall not be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the information contained in this document and accept no responsibility for statements made otherwise issued or any other source of information received by the investor and the investor would be doing so at his/her/its own risk. The information contained in this document should not be construed as forecast or promise or guarantee or assurance of any kind. The investors are not being offered any assurance or guaranteed or fixed returns on their investments. The users of this document must bear in mind that past performances if any, are not indicative of future results. The actual returns on investment may be materially different than the past. Investments in Securities market products and instruments including in the IPO of the Company are highly risky and they are generally not an appropriate avenue for someone with limited resources/ limited investment and low risk tolerance. Such Investments are subject to market risks including, without limitation, price, volatility and liquidity and capital risks. Therefore, the users of this document must carefully consider all the information given in the RHP including the risks factors before making any investment in the Equity Shares of the Company.
Swastika Investmart Ltd or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither Swastika Investmart Ltd nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. Swastika Investment Ltd may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. We have not received any compensation/benefits from the Subject Company or third party in connection with the Research Report.
ब्याज दरों के लंबे समय तक ऊंचे रहने की संभावनाओं के बीच अमेरिकी डॉलर 10 महीने की उचाई पर है और ट्रेजरी यील्ड में उछाल आया है जिसके कारण सोने के भाव 7 महीने के निचले स्तरों पर पहुंच गए है। दुनिया के सबसे बड़े सोना-समर्थित एक्सचेंज-ट्रेडेड फंड, एसपीडीआर गोल्ड ट्रस्ट की होल्डिंग्स चार साल से अधिक के निचले स्तर पर पहुंच गई है। जब ब्याज दरें अधिक हो जाती हैं, तो वे बांड जैसे अन्य ब्याज-युक्त निवेश को अधिक आकर्षक बना देते हैं, जिससे निवेशक ब्याज देने वाले निवेश की तरफ आकर्षित हुए है। उच्च ब्याज़ दरों की स्थिति में, सोने के विपरीत दिशा में चलने वाला डॉलर इंडेक्स में तेज़ी भी सोने के भाव में दबाव बना रही है। इस साल ब्याज दरों में एक बार और बढ़ोतरी होने के संकेत के साथ अगले साल उच्च ब्याज दरें क़ायम रहने के अनुमान के चलते कीमती धातुए निवेश के लिए कम आकर्षित हो गई है। अमेरिकी रोज़गार बाज़ार के बेहतर आकड़ो से लेबर इन्फ्लेशन बढ़ने का अनुमान है जिससे मुद्रास्फीति में बढ़ोतरी की सम्भवनाए बन रही है। बाजार ने दूसरी तिमाही के दौरान अमेरिकी अर्थव्यवस्था में मजबूत वृद्धि का संकेत देने वाले आंकड़ों पर प्रतिक्रिया दी है, जिससे ब्याज दरों में बढ़ोतरी की उम्मीद बढ़ गई है। पिछले सप्ताह दिसंबर वायदा सोने में 2.25 प्रतिशत की गिरावट के बाद कीमते 58050 रुपये प्रति दस ग्राम के स्तरों पर कारोबार करती रही। दिसंबर वायदा चांदी में 2 प्रतिशत की साप्ताहिक गिरावट के बाद कीमते 71800 रुपये प्रति किलो पर रही। इस सप्ताह अमेरिकी पैरोल के आंकड़े कीमती धातुओं के लिए महत्वपूर्ण रहेंगे।
तकनिकी विश्लेषण :
इस सप्ताह कीमती धातुओं के भाव में सुधार देखने को मिल सकता है। एमसीएक्स दिसंबर वायदा सोने में सपोर्ट 57500 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 58800 रुपये पर है। दिसंबर वायदा चांदी में सपोर्ट 70500 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 73500 रुपये पर है।
त्यौहार के सीजन से पहले कठोर मौद्रिक नीति के संकेतो से सोने और चांदी के भाव सस्ते हो गए है। और भारत में त्यौहार पर रीती रिवाज़ों के चलते पितृपक्ष के बाद सस्ते भाव होने के कारण इनकी हाज़िर मांग को अच्छा सपोर्ट देखने को मिल सकता है। भारत में पहली तिमाही में सोने की मांग में गिरावट देखने को मिली थी जबकि दूसरी तिमाही में मांग 4 प्रतिशत से बढ़ने का अनुमान है। हालांकि, बांड यील्ड में लगातार बढ़ोतरी होने के कारण गैरउपज वाली संपत्ति सोने से निवेशको ने छोटी अवधि के लिए दुरी बना रखी है। एसपीडीआर गोल्ड ट्रस्ट की सोने में होल्डिंग घट कर चार साल के निचले स्तरों पर पहुंच गई है। अमेरिका में आर्थिक मंदी का डर कम होने के बाद से ही निवेशक लम्बी अवधि के गवर्नमेंट बांड यह मान कर बेच रहे है की अर्थव्यवस्था ज्यादा नहीं सिकुड़ेगी। जबकि चीन, जो अमेरिकी ट्रेज़री का सबसे बड़ा होल्डर है, में आर्थिक मंदी रहने के कारण ट्रेज़री में नई खरीद नहीं हो रही है और अमेरिकी डेब्ट की रेटिंग घटने के बाद फेड द्वारा भी बांड खरीद कम हुई है जिससे बांड यील्ड में बढ़ोतरी हुई है और कीमती धातुओं के भाव में दबाव बना हुआ है। रोज़गार बाजार और मुद्रास्फीति में स्थिरता ब्याज दरों को लम्बी अवधि के लिए उच्च स्तरों पर बनाये रख सकता है, हालांकि ग्लोबल अर्थव्यवस्था की सुस्त चाल और भूराजनीतिक मुद्दो के रहते सोने में लम्बी अवधि की तेज़ क़ायम रह सकती है। पिछले सप्ताह एमसीएक्स दिसंबर वायदा सोने में 2 प्रतिशत की गिरावट के बाद भाव 56500 रुपये प्रति दस ग्राम और चांदी में 4.5 प्रतिशत की गिरावट के बाद भाव 66800 रुपये प्रति किलो पर रहे।
तकनिकी विश्लेषण :
इस सप्ताह कीमती धातुओं के भाव सीमित दायरे में रह सकते है। एमसीएक्स दिसंबर वायदा सोने में सपोर्ट 55000 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 58000 रुपये पर है। दिसंबर वायदा चांदी में सपोर्ट 62000 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 70000 रुपये पर है।