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A day before the Union Budget, which will be unveiled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday, February 1, 2023, the Economic Survey for 2023–24 was introduced in Parliament on Tuesday, January 31, 2023. The Economic Survey, which is issued every year a day before the budget and analyses the performance of every area of the economy before making recommendations for the future, is a report card on the state of the economy.

Key Highlights

• India's economy will expand by 6.5% in 2023–2024 compared to this fiscal's 7% growth and 2021–2022's 8.7% expansion. In the upcoming fiscal year, nominal GDP (gross domestic product) is expected to reach 11%.
• Private consumption, more capital expenditures, a better corporate balance sheet, increased financing to small enterprises, and the return of migrant workers to cities all contributed to growth.
• Depending on global economic and political developments, real GDP growth is expected to be between 6 and 8.0% in the upcoming fiscal year.
• The probability of additional interest rate increases by the US Fed presents a challenge to the rupee's decline.
• As long as global commodity prices stay high and the pace of economic expansion is maintained, the current account deficit (CAD) may continue to increase. The rupee may see devaluation pressure if CAD widens much more.

According to the most recent Reserve Bank of India (RBI) figures, the nation's current account deficit increased to 4.4% of GDP in the quarter ending in September from 2.2% of GDP during the April-June period as a result of a larger trade imbalance.

• India has enough foreign exchange reserves to cover CAD and participate in the Forex Trading market to control currency volatility.
• The second half of the current fiscal year has seen a slowing in export growth after the first half of the year and the increase in growth rates in 2021–22 caused production processes to move from "mild acceleration" to "cruise mode."
• The loss of export stimulus in the second part of this year was caused by the slowing global economy and declining worldwide commerce.
• On the strength of low inflation and moderate lending costs, bank credit growth is anticipated to be robust in FY24.
• Over 30.5% more credit was extended to small firms between January and November of 2022.
• In the current fiscal year's April to November, central government capital expenditures increased by 63.4%.
• The stock market generated gains in 2022 despite the removal of FPI.
• In the current fiscal year, private consumption and capital formation have driven economic growth and helped create jobs; urban employment rates have decreased while Employee Provident Fund registration has increased.
• The survey suggested that "entrenched inflation" could prolong the tightening cycle, causing borrowing costs to remain higher for longer.

K-Shaped Recovery

A K-shaped recovery happens when various sectors, industries, or groups of people in the economy recover at various speeds, periods, or amounts. In this type of recovery, certain industries flourish while others stagnate or even dip more. K-shaped recoveries are typically brought on by pre-existing discrepancies or by a recession that has distinct effects on different populations and groups.

The image below is an example of a K-shaped recovery wherein certain industries or sectors perform well and grow while others go into decline and continue to stagnate.

(IMG Credits: Drishti IAS)

A K-shaped recovery could be caused by a variety of distinct economic events. First, a K-shaped recovery can represent the creative destruction that takes place in an economy during a recession when new technology and industries displace older ones. Second, it may show how the government has responded to a downturn in terms of fiscal and monetary policy, which might favor particular parts of the economy more than others.

Alternately, it may merely reflect the disparate effects that the initial recession had on the various sectors of the economy, particularly when the recession occurs concurrently with or is brought on by adverse real economic shocks that target particular sectors of the economy and may have longer-lasting effects on those sectors than on others. Keep in mind that these three requirements might not be exclusive of one another; they might all be at work in a particular K-shaped recovery together with additional elements.

It is hard to say for sure if India is experiencing a K-shaped recovery. However, certain indicators which indicate a K-shaped recovery in India are:

- Two-wheelers are a symbol of India's small businesses as well as the economic position of the lower and middle classes. According to a survey by the analytical firm CRISIL, two-wheeler sales are predicted to fall between 3% and 6% in 2021. This is on top of a lower base that was already impacted by the pandemic in 2020. The actual decrease in two-wheeler sales from before the pandemic must be significantly greater as a result of the base effect. Two-wheeler sales are at their second-lowest level in seven years. It is crucial to remember that among two-wheelers, entry-level vehicles are the ones most adversely impacted. The festival season was supposed to address this issue, but it failed to do so. On the other hand, premium cars and premium motorcycles have been resistant to the pandemic slowdown.

- Over 5 lakh people lost jobs after the lockdown started. Post this, there was a need for an increase in NREGA expenditure to accommodate more people for jobs. However, in the year 2021-2022, the Government of India cut its budget allocation towards MGNREGA by 34%. Thus, the unemployment rate didn’t ease off to pre-COVID levels even after the lockdown was lifted.

A deeper dive into the data of disposable income of the lower, middle, and upper class will show a similar trend which is the reason for the K-shaped recovery.

सोने की कीमते पिछले सप्ताह कॉमेक्स वायदा बाजार में सात महीने के उच्च स्तरों को छू चुकी है जबकि एमसीएक्स में कीमते 56000 रूपये प्रति दस ग्राम के स्तरों को छू चुकी है। हालांकि, अमेरिका से जारी एडीपी नॉन फार्म एम्प्लॉयमेंट चेंज, बेरोज़गारी के दावे और पैरोल के आकड़ो का बेहतर प्रदर्शन से कीमती धातुओं में उच्च स्तरों पर मुनाफ़ा वसूली रही। फेड मीटिंग के मिनट्स के अनुसार छोटी ब्याज दरों में बढ़ोतरी की संभावना ने डॉलर इंडेक्स पर दबाव बनाया है, जिससे 2022 में एक बुल रन के बाद ग्रीनबैक उच्चतम स्तरों से पलट गया है, और आने वाले महीनों में इसकी कमजोरी कीमती धातुओं को सपोर्ट करेंगी। अमेरिकी ट्रेजरी यील्ड, फेड मिनटों के बाद तेजी से गिरकर तीन सप्ताह के निचले स्तर पर आ गई। फेड मिनट्स स्पष्ट हुआ है कि नीति निर्माताओ की प्राथमिकता मुद्रास्फीति को कम करना है, और उच्च ब्याज दरों को लंबे समय तक बनाए रखने के लिए तैयार हैं। जिससे कीमती धातुओं की तेज़ी सीमित रह सकती है।

लेकिन, अन्य प्रमुख अर्थव्यवस्थाओं में धीमी व्यावसायिक गतिविधि के संकेतों का भी कीमती धातुओं के लिए सकारात्मक है। चीन और अमेरिका की मैन्युफैक्चरिंग पीएमआई के आंकड़े 50 के स्तरों के नीचे है, जो आर्थिक मंदी के डर को बढ़ा रहा है। इंटरनेशनल मॉनेटरी फण्ड द्वारा दुनिया की तीन बड़ी अर्थव्यवस्था अमेरिका, चीन और यूरोप की अर्थव्यवस्था को संकट में बताया है, जिससे कीमती धातुओं में सेफ हैवन मांग बनी हुई है।

सप्ताह के आंकड़े

इस सप्ताह अमेरिका से, मंगलवार को फेड चेयर जेरोम पॉवेल की स्पीच, गुरुवार को सीपीआई (मुद्रास्फीति) और शुक्रवार को कंस्यूमर सेंटीमेंट के आंकड़े प्रमुख है।

तकनिकी विश्लेषण

इस सप्ताह कीमती धातुओं में तेज़ी रहने की सम्भावना है। सोने में सपोर्ट 54000 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 56100 रुपये पर है। चांदी में सपोर्ट 67000 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 70500 रुपये पर है।

ऐसी और कमोडिटी मार्केट की लेटेस्ट अपडेट के लिए आज ही स्वस्तिका में अपना अकाउंट खुलवाएं

India's digital economy has changed thanks to Unified Payments Interface, which has also sped up the country's move toward a cashless society. In comparison to other payment systems throughout the world, India's UPI system is noticeably more advanced.

According to NPCI, Unified Payments Interface transactions in India increased by 7.7% in October to reach 730 crores, with a total value of more than Rs. 12.11 lakh crore. There were 678 billion UPI transactions in September, with a total value of Rs. 11.16 lakh crore.

Phone Pe

PhonePe is an Indian financial technology and digital payments company with its headquarters in Bengaluru, Karnataka, India.  Sameer Nigam, Rahul Chari, and Burzin Engineer cofounded PhonePe In December 2015.  The PhonePe app, which is based on the Unified Payments Interface (UPI), went online in August 2016. Flipkart is the owner of PhonePe.

G-Pay

Google Pay is a mobile payment service that allows customers to use their Android watches, tablets, or phones to make payments for goods and services in-app, online, and in-person.

PhonePe and Google Pay made up 83% of the total amount of Unified Payments Interface payments

Paytm

Based in Noida, Paytm is an Indian provider of financial services and digital payments. Vijay Shekhar Sharma launched it in 2010 under One97 Communications.

The transaction values at Paytm Payments Bank, the third-largest UPI provider, increased by 34% month over month to Rs 80,508 crore with an 11% market share.

CRED

CRED is a Bangalore-based fintech business in India. It is a credit card payment app that uses rewards that was established in 2018 by Kunal Shah. Additionally, Cred offers short-term credit lines and allows customers to pay their rent on their homes

Cred, a financial start up, tripled its market share to 1.8% in H1FY22 from a mere 0.42% in H1FY21 on the strength of its inclusion on the coveted unicorn list.

Others

Whatsapp Pay

Despite a sluggish start, analysts predict that Whatsapp Pay will quickly overtake Walmart's PhonePe and GPay to win the most market share if it receives regulatory approval to launch fully.

Since its inception in December 2020, Whatsapp Pay has garnered a minuscule amount of market share in India's escalating UPI competition. Only 0.58 million UPI transactions out of the total 2.7 billion were handled by WhatsApp Pay in March. In reality, Whatsapp's payment service's transaction volume dropped to 0.56 million in January, the second month after it launched, from 0.81 million in December. Since then, the volume of transactions has remained constant.

Bhim

The National Payments Corporation of India created the Unified Payments Interface-based mobile payment app called BHIM.

Amazon Pay

Online payment processing service Amazon Pay is owned by Amazon. Launched in 2007, Amazon Pay focuses on offering consumers the opportunity to use their Amazon accounts to make purchases on websites run by external merchants while utilizing the customer base of Amazon.com.

NPCI Take and Rules ahead

The country's UPI operator, NPCI, declared last month that it will impose a cap of 30% on each player's transaction volume starting in 2021.

According to the rules, the market cap will be determined by the monthly transactions made on the app and will not take into account the total number of users.

When the number of transactions on a certain app exceeds the 25% transaction limit, NPCI will send an alert to the firm that owns the app. When the transactions on the same app exceed the 27% mark, a second alert will be sent. The total number of transactions conducted by UPI over the previous three months will be considered to determine the cap of 30%.

Existing players and third-party app providers (TPAPs) who exceed the set cap will have two years starting in January 2021 to gradually comply with the new rules.

Market giants Google Pay and PhonePe have strongly criticized this decision, arguing that it violates UPI's "free market" principles and might impede the development of the nation's payment infrastructure.

Conclusion

According to UPI's announcement in October 2020, there were 2,071.62 million total transactions, of which 1,655 million were completed using either PhonePe or Google Pay. Just four UPI applications handled over 97% of all transactions, while the remaining 17 UPI apps managed less than 3%.

Those who don’t learn from history, are doomed to repeat it.

However, the financial crisis of 2008-09 is a history you would want to avoid at all costs. And that is exactly why those who are aware of the gloom, that the Infamous crisis bestowed upon us (ahem), are keeping a close eye on the ongoing turmoil, that ‘Credit Suisse’ finds itself to be in.

With $22 Billion of Revenue, $1.5 Trillion of ‘Assets under Management’ and currently operating in 50+ Countries, the Swiss Mammoth is a systematically important financial institution. And given the scales, it's a no-brainer why its collapse can herald another calamity, with multi-fold consequences, just like what happened in 2008, when 'Lehman Brothers’ an organization that was deemed ‘Too big to fail’, went under and triggered worldwide mayhem. Flashes of those times still send a chill down the spine of Economists all over the globe alike.

But before we draw the parallels between the two companies and their predicament, let us understand a few terms.

First is Credit Default Swap (CDS)-

In lehman oops.. laymen’s terms, it's an insurance instrument, in which the insuring party charges an upfront fee for the promise of reimbursing them any losses due to the default by the borrowers. Here, the borrowers are usually companies that issue Bonds. In essence, the parties agree to swap the risk of Credit default.

(https://prepnuggets.com/glossary/credit-default-swap)

The fees charged by the party assuming the risk of default is called 'Credit Default Swap Spread' or CDS Spread. Higher the risk, the higher the CDS Spread that will be charged. Conversely, the higher the spread on a particular security, the higher the chances of it defaulting on its repayment commitments.

With this out of the way, let's wipe the dust off of our time machine, and travel back to 2007-08, when American Real Estate Sector was on an unprecedented boom, and Banks were churning out House Loans against Mortgage- Backed Securities, at a rapid pace. Thus, every Tom, Dick, and Harry were granted loans and bought homes, irrespective of their financial capabilities and credit history. Banks then hedged themselves by signing Credit default swaps with Institutions like AIG and..... (drumrolls please) Lehman Brothers. This activity spearheaded the ill-famed ‘Housing bubble’.

But like every other bubble that ever graced this planet, this one too, sooner or later, had to burst. And as they say, when it rains, it pours.

Due to the influx of so many houses in the market and people failing to honor their commitments, the housing sector collapsed like a bunch of legos. With piling defaults, Banks turned to the Institutions that issued Credit Default swaps, to get the payment. But those institutions weren't any Cash Printing Genie who could summon such humongous amounts at such short notice.

Subsequently, due to abnormally high default claims, they were left with no cash to honor the swaps and were looking at possible Bankruptcy. Although Institutions like Citi Banks and AIG were bailed out by the government, Lehman Brothers found themselves beyond salvation. They ultimately collapsed and declared bankruptcy on 15th September 2008. Their downfall and the aftermath of this crisis ushered an era of disastrous financial ramifications for the global economy.

Coming back to 2022, Macro-Economic factors don't instill a lot of confidence in the European Economy. With the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War, Energy prices rising by 175%, rapid depreciation of the Pound, and Europe still recovering from Covid-19's implications, it won't be an understatement to say that things are looking a bit iffy.

Further, after incurring losses in the last 5 out of 7 quarters, and laying off 500+ employees, Credit Suisse has watched 66% of its market cap getting eroded, since the beginning of 2022.

Along with that, the CDS spread on Credit Suisse's bond (which, as discussed earlier, indicates the risk on the security) stands at an all-time high of 4.4%, with the same metric for its Industrial counterparts standing at appx. 0.6%-0.8%. And with rising chances of defaults on loans due to severe economic shortcomings, investors are afraid that a fate like Lehman Brothers, might await Credit Suisse.

However, when we compare the position of Lehman Brothers at the time of bankruptcy, and Credit Suisse as of now, one might feel that the talks of Credit Suisse going down, is getting blown way out of the proportions.

Let us have a look at the factors given below.

Factor Lehman Brothers Credit Suisse Cash in Hand$19548 Mil$159752 Mil(Cash in Hand as % of assets)3.10%21.30%% of Assets in form of Securities 88.20%30.33% Leverage Ratio 24.34 Times15.9 Times

Also, Credit Suisse has a CET-1 Ratio of 13.5 % and a liquidity ratio of 191%. As one can see, it is in a significantly better position in almost all of the metrics. Further, The company is in process of raising $4 Billion from its existing investors and has onboarded a new CEO, who is faced with two impending tasks, i.e., to cut costs by $1 Billion p.a. and restructure the IB Department. Considering all of these, one can assume that the company is committed to getting back on track, as soon as possible.

But that does not undermine the gravity of the bedlam looming over it’s head. The risk is too damn high, but not all hope is lost. Whether Credit Suisse will go tumbling down or will it steer away from the danger unscathed, only time will tell. But one thing is for sure, a very cold winter awaits the Swiss Giant.

However, before departing, I'm going to leave you with an interesting trivia. The last name of the newly appointed Chairman of Credit Suisse is...wait for it...

Lehmann. Take that as you may, and I'll see you pretty soon.

न्यू ईयर और क्रिसमस के चलते कीमती धातुओं में कारोबार सिमित रहा, हालांकि कीमती धातुओं के भाव मजबूती के साथ सिमित दायरे में बने हुए है। भारत में पिछले एक साल में सोने और चांदी की कीमतों में अच्छी बढ़त दर्ज की गई है जबकि फेड और अन्य प्रमुख केंद्रीय बैंको द्वारा मई 2022 के बाद लगातार की गई ब्याज दर वद्धि के कारण कॉमेक्स वायदा में सोने और चांदी की कीमतों में मामूली बढ़त देखि गई है। हालांकि, लगातार ब्याज दर वृद्धि के कारण मुद्रास्फीति में कुछ कमी देखने को मिली, लेकिन फेड द्वारा ब्याज दर वृद्धि में नरमी से सोने और चांदी के भाव में चमक लौट आई है। नए साल के लिए कोवीड वापसी की चिंता और आर्थिक मंदी की आशंका, कीमती धातुओं के भाव के लिए ट्रिगर रहेगा। डॉलर, जो सोने के विपरीत दिशा में चलता है, में गिरावट से कीमती धातुओं के भाव को सपोर्ट रह सकता है। साल 2022 में क्रिप्टो करेंसी में जबरदस्त बिकवाली और बिटकॉइन जिसको सोने के विकल्प के रूप में देखा जा रहा था, अपने उच्चतम स्तर से 76 प्रतिशत टूट चुका है जिससे निवेशकों का भरोसा सोने पर बना हुआ है। फेड द्वारा ब्याज दरे उम्मीद से ज्यादा बढ़ा दी गई है, और अधिक ब्याज दरों में बढ़ोतरी ग्लोबल अर्थव्यवस्था पर प्रतिकूल प्रभाव डाल सकती है जबकि फेड के बाद यूरोपियन सेंट्रल बैंक भी लगातार ब्याज दर बढ़ाने के संकेत दिए है। ग्लोबल शेयर बाज़ारो से मिले-जुले संकेत, निवेशकों को सेफ हैवन की तरफ आकर्षित कर सकता है। इस सप्ताह ओपेक - नॉन ओपेक देशो की बैठक, फेड बैठक के मिनट्स और अमेरिकी पैरोल के आंकड़े कीमती धातुओं के लिए महत्वपूर्ण रहेंगे।

तकनिकी विश्लेषण

इस सप्ताह कीमती धातुओं में तेज़ी रहने की सम्भावना है। सोने में सपोर्ट 54400 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 55500 रुपये पर है। चांदी में सपोर्ट 68000 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 70500 रुपये पर है।