The Adani Group, one of India’s biggest companies, recently launched the country's largest Follow-on Public Offering (FPO) to raise ₹20,000 crores from investors. However, the response has been surprisingly low, with only 1% of the shares being subscribed and just 2% of the retail portion taken up. This poor response is mainly due to a report released by Hindenburg Research just before the FPO, which has caused a lot of controversy.

What Did Hindenburg Say?

Hindenburg Research, known for investigating companies they believe are overvalued or involved in wrongdoing, published a 106-page report making serious allegations against the Adani Group. Here are the key points:

1. Pledged Shares: Hindenburg raised concerns that a large portion of Adani Group shares has been used as collateral for loans. This is risky because if the share prices fall, the lenders might sell these shares, causing prices to drop even more.
2. Tax Evasion and Financial Tricks: Despite being one of India’s richest people, Gautam Adani is reportedly only the 10th highest taxpayer. Hindenburg accused the Adani Group of avoiding taxes through activities like diamond trading, over-invoicing, and other financial schemes.
3. Offshore Payments: The report highlighted a ₹780 crore payment made by Adani Enterprises to an offshore company in Australia. Hindenburg suggested this payment might not have been transparent because the offshore company was allegedly owned by the Adani Group itself.
4. Market Manipulatioeased their holdings, which raised suspicions of manipulation.
5. Complicated Corpon: Hindenburg claimed that in 2019, Adani Green, part of the Adani Group, used a broker involved in market rigging for its share sale. After the sale, some foreign investors incrrate Structure: Hindenburg criticized the Adani Group’s complex structure, with 578 subsidiaries and over 6,000 related-party transactions in one year. This complexity makes it hard to track financial activities, raising concerns about transparency.
6. Questionable Shareholdings: Hindenburg questioned the large number of Adani Group shares held by offshore funds, suggesting these funds might be controlled by the Adani Group to manipulate stock prices.
7. Silencing Journalists: Another serious accusation was that the Adani Group has used its influence to silence journalists who report critically on the company, with some even being jailed.

Hindenburg’s Key Points

Hindenburg’s report wasn’t just about new accusations; it also pointed out existing issues:

• Overvalued Stocks: Hindenburg claimed that the seven key listed companies of the Adani Group are overvalued by as much as 85%, even without considering the new allegations.
• High Debt Levels: The Adani Group has taken on a lot of debt, much of it backed by shares that Hindenburg claims are inflated. This puts the group in a risky financial position.

Financial Health of Adani Group

Despite these allegations, the Adani Group has shown some positive financial trends:

• Lower Debt: The group has managed to reduce its debt-to-EBITDA ratio, meaning its debt is now smaller compared to its earnings.
• Earnings Growth: The group’s earnings have been growing at a healthy rate of 22% per year.
• Continued Borrowing: However, the group’s debt has also been growing, showing it still relies heavily on borrowing.

Adani Group’s Response

In response to the Hindenburg report, the Adani Group issued a 413-page rebuttal, strongly denying all allegations and defending its practices:

• Transparency and Compliance: The group argued that most of the issues raised by Hindenburg were already disclosed in their financial reports.
• Legal Standards: Adani stated that it follows the highest standards of governance and accused Hindenburg of not understanding Indian laws.
• Market Manipulation Claims: The group suggested that Hindenburg’s report was a deliberate attempt to manipulate the market for financial gain, as Hindenburg stands to profit from a decline in Adani’s stock prices.

Impact on Adani Group Stocks

The Hindenburg report has significantly impacted the Adani Group’s stock prices:

• Massive Losses: The group has lost over $48 billion in market value since the report was published, causing a sharp decline in investor confidence.
• Stock Performance:some text
  • Adani Enterprises: -1.50%
  • Adani Green: -3.08%
  • Adani Ports: -6.59%
  • Adani Transmission: -8.85%

These sharp declines have also affected the broader Indian stock market, with Adani Group stocks dragging down the indices.

Conclusion

The clash between Hindenburg and the Adani Group has created significant turmoil in the Indian stock market and raised serious questions about the Adani Group’s business practices. While the Adani Group has strongly denied the allegations, the controversy has led to a massive drop in stock prices and a loss of investor confidence. The long-term impact on the Adani Group remains to be seen as the situation continues to unfold.

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कॉमेक्स में सोने की कीमते 9 महीने की उचाई 1941 डॉलर प्रति औंस, की उचाई पर चल रही है जबकि एमसीएक्स में सोना उच्चतम स्तरों पर चल रहा है। हालांकि, चांदी की कीमतों में, औद्योगिक मांग में कमी के रहते दबाव देखने को मिल रहा है। साल 2023 में आर्थिक मंदी का डर अभी बना हुआ है और कीमती धातुओं में निवेशकों को आगे के नज़रिये के लिए अमेरिका के प्रमुख आकड़ो का इंतजार है। पिछले सप्ताह चीन में लूनर न्यू ईयर हॉलिडे के चलते वैश्विक बाज़ारो में कारोबार कम रहा। बेंचमार्क अमेरिकी ट्रेज़री यील्ड में दबाव बना हुआ है जिसके कारण अमेरिकी डॉलर, जो सोने के विपरीत दिशा में चलता है, में दबाव बना हुआ है और पिछले सप्ताह यह 101 के स्तरों को छु चूका है। अमेरिकी फेड द्वारा ब्याज़ दर वृद्धि पर नरमी दिखाई गई है जबकि यूरोपियन सेंट्रल बैंक अगली दो बैठकों में 0.50 प्रतिशत वृद्धि करने का अनुमान है। हाल के सप्ताहों में, कीमती धातुओं के भाव में हैवन मांग और फेडरल रिजर्व द्वारा आने वाले महीनों में ब्याज दरों में वृद्धि की गति को धीमा करने की बढ़ती उम्मीदों से, कीमती धातुओं में तेजी आई है। निवेशकों की इन उम्मीदों से डॉलर और अमेरिकी ट्रेज़री यील्ड में गिरावट आई है और कीमती धातुओं को इससे फायदा हुआ है। हालांकि, फेड द्वारा ब्याज दर वृद्धि को धीमा किया गया है, लेकिन इसके उच्चतम स्तर के बारे में कोई संकेत नहीं है और मुद्रास्फीति अभी भी 40 साल की उचाई के करीब बनी हुई है। अमेरिकी डेब्ट सीलिंग लिमिट की चिंता भी निवेशकों को कीमती धातुओं की और आकर्षित कर रही है।

इस सप्ताह अमेरिकी पैरोल के आंकड़े, एफओएमसी और यूरोपियन सेंट्रल बैंक की बैठक, और भारतीय आम बजट कीमती धातुओं के लिए महत्वपूर्ण है, जिससे इनके भाव को नई दिशा मिल सकती है।

तकनिकी विश्लेषण

इस सप्ताह कीमती धातुओं के भाव में महत्वपूर्ण इवेंट्स के चलते अस्थिरता रहने की सम्भावना है। सोने में सपोर्ट 56000 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 58000 रुपये पर है। चांदी में सपोर्ट 66500 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 70500 रुपये पर है।

A day before the Union Budget, which will be unveiled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday, February 1, 2023, the Economic Survey for 2023–24 was introduced in Parliament on Tuesday, January 31, 2023. The Economic Survey, which is issued every year a day before the budget and analyses the performance of every area of the economy before making recommendations for the future, is a report card on the state of the economy.

Key Highlights

• India's economy will expand by 6.5% in 2023–2024 compared to this fiscal's 7% growth and 2021–2022's 8.7% expansion. In the upcoming fiscal year, nominal GDP (gross domestic product) is expected to reach 11%.
• Private consumption, more capital expenditures, a better corporate balance sheet, increased financing to small enterprises, and the return of migrant workers to cities all contributed to growth.
• Depending on global economic and political developments, real GDP growth is expected to be between 6 and 8.0% in the upcoming fiscal year.
• The probability of additional interest rate increases by the US Fed presents a challenge to the rupee's decline.
• As long as global commodity prices stay high and the pace of economic expansion is maintained, the current account deficit (CAD) may continue to increase. The rupee may see devaluation pressure if CAD widens much more.

According to the most recent Reserve Bank of India (RBI) figures, the nation's current account deficit increased to 4.4% of GDP in the quarter ending in September from 2.2% of GDP during the April-June period as a result of a larger trade imbalance.

• India has enough foreign exchange reserves to cover CAD and participate in the Forex Trading market to control currency volatility.
• The second half of the current fiscal year has seen a slowing in export growth after the first half of the year and the increase in growth rates in 2021–22 caused production processes to move from "mild acceleration" to "cruise mode."
• The loss of export stimulus in the second part of this year was caused by the slowing global economy and declining worldwide commerce.
• On the strength of low inflation and moderate lending costs, bank credit growth is anticipated to be robust in FY24.
• Over 30.5% more credit was extended to small firms between January and November of 2022.
• In the current fiscal year's April to November, central government capital expenditures increased by 63.4%.
• The stock market generated gains in 2022 despite the removal of FPI.
• In the current fiscal year, private consumption and capital formation have driven economic growth and helped create jobs; urban employment rates have decreased while Employee Provident Fund registration has increased.
• The survey suggested that "entrenched inflation" could prolong the tightening cycle, causing borrowing costs to remain higher for longer.

K-Shaped Recovery

A K-shaped recovery happens when various sectors, industries, or groups of people in the economy recover at various speeds, periods, or amounts. In this type of recovery, certain industries flourish while others stagnate or even dip more. K-shaped recoveries are typically brought on by pre-existing discrepancies or by a recession that has distinct effects on different populations and groups.

The image below is an example of a K-shaped recovery wherein certain industries or sectors perform well and grow while others go into decline and continue to stagnate.

(IMG Credits: Drishti IAS)

A K-shaped recovery could be caused by a variety of distinct economic events. First, a K-shaped recovery can represent the creative destruction that takes place in an economy during a recession when new technology and industries displace older ones. Second, it may show how the government has responded to a downturn in terms of fiscal and monetary policy, which might favor particular parts of the economy more than others.

Alternately, it may merely reflect the disparate effects that the initial recession had on the various sectors of the economy, particularly when the recession occurs concurrently with or is brought on by adverse real economic shocks that target particular sectors of the economy and may have longer-lasting effects on those sectors than on others. Keep in mind that these three requirements might not be exclusive of one another; they might all be at work in a particular K-shaped recovery together with additional elements.

It is hard to say for sure if India is experiencing a K-shaped recovery. However, certain indicators which indicate a K-shaped recovery in India are:

- Two-wheelers are a symbol of India's small businesses as well as the economic position of the lower and middle classes. According to a survey by the analytical firm CRISIL, two-wheeler sales are predicted to fall between 3% and 6% in 2021. This is on top of a lower base that was already impacted by the pandemic in 2020. The actual decrease in two-wheeler sales from before the pandemic must be significantly greater as a result of the base effect. Two-wheeler sales are at their second-lowest level in seven years. It is crucial to remember that among two-wheelers, entry-level vehicles are the ones most adversely impacted. The festival season was supposed to address this issue, but it failed to do so. On the other hand, premium cars and premium motorcycles have been resistant to the pandemic slowdown.

- Over 5 lakh people lost jobs after the lockdown started. Post this, there was a need for an increase in NREGA expenditure to accommodate more people for jobs. However, in the year 2021-2022, the Government of India cut its budget allocation towards MGNREGA by 34%. Thus, the unemployment rate didn’t ease off to pre-COVID levels even after the lockdown was lifted.

A deeper dive into the data of disposable income of the lower, middle, and upper class will show a similar trend which is the reason for the K-shaped recovery.

सोने की कीमते पिछले सप्ताह कॉमेक्स वायदा बाजार में सात महीने के उच्च स्तरों को छू चुकी है जबकि एमसीएक्स में कीमते 56000 रूपये प्रति दस ग्राम के स्तरों को छू चुकी है। हालांकि, अमेरिका से जारी एडीपी नॉन फार्म एम्प्लॉयमेंट चेंज, बेरोज़गारी के दावे और पैरोल के आकड़ो का बेहतर प्रदर्शन से कीमती धातुओं में उच्च स्तरों पर मुनाफ़ा वसूली रही। फेड मीटिंग के मिनट्स के अनुसार छोटी ब्याज दरों में बढ़ोतरी की संभावना ने डॉलर इंडेक्स पर दबाव बनाया है, जिससे 2022 में एक बुल रन के बाद ग्रीनबैक उच्चतम स्तरों से पलट गया है, और आने वाले महीनों में इसकी कमजोरी कीमती धातुओं को सपोर्ट करेंगी। अमेरिकी ट्रेजरी यील्ड, फेड मिनटों के बाद तेजी से गिरकर तीन सप्ताह के निचले स्तर पर आ गई। फेड मिनट्स स्पष्ट हुआ है कि नीति निर्माताओ की प्राथमिकता मुद्रास्फीति को कम करना है, और उच्च ब्याज दरों को लंबे समय तक बनाए रखने के लिए तैयार हैं। जिससे कीमती धातुओं की तेज़ी सीमित रह सकती है।

लेकिन, अन्य प्रमुख अर्थव्यवस्थाओं में धीमी व्यावसायिक गतिविधि के संकेतों का भी कीमती धातुओं के लिए सकारात्मक है। चीन और अमेरिका की मैन्युफैक्चरिंग पीएमआई के आंकड़े 50 के स्तरों के नीचे है, जो आर्थिक मंदी के डर को बढ़ा रहा है। इंटरनेशनल मॉनेटरी फण्ड द्वारा दुनिया की तीन बड़ी अर्थव्यवस्था अमेरिका, चीन और यूरोप की अर्थव्यवस्था को संकट में बताया है, जिससे कीमती धातुओं में सेफ हैवन मांग बनी हुई है।

सप्ताह के आंकड़े

इस सप्ताह अमेरिका से, मंगलवार को फेड चेयर जेरोम पॉवेल की स्पीच, गुरुवार को सीपीआई (मुद्रास्फीति) और शुक्रवार को कंस्यूमर सेंटीमेंट के आंकड़े प्रमुख है।

तकनिकी विश्लेषण

इस सप्ताह कीमती धातुओं में तेज़ी रहने की सम्भावना है। सोने में सपोर्ट 54000 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 56100 रुपये पर है। चांदी में सपोर्ट 67000 रुपये पर है और रेजिस्टेंस 70500 रुपये पर है।

ऐसी और कमोडिटी मार्केट की लेटेस्ट अपडेट के लिए आज ही स्वस्तिका में अपना अकाउंट खुलवाएं

India's digital economy has changed thanks to Unified Payments Interface, which has also sped up the country's move toward a cashless society. In comparison to other payment systems throughout the world, India's UPI system is noticeably more advanced.

According to NPCI, Unified Payments Interface transactions in India increased by 7.7% in October to reach 730 crores, with a total value of more than Rs. 12.11 lakh crore. There were 678 billion UPI transactions in September, with a total value of Rs. 11.16 lakh crore.

Phone Pe

PhonePe is an Indian financial technology and digital payments company with its headquarters in Bengaluru, Karnataka, India.  Sameer Nigam, Rahul Chari, and Burzin Engineer cofounded PhonePe In December 2015.  The PhonePe app, which is based on the Unified Payments Interface (UPI), went online in August 2016. Flipkart is the owner of PhonePe.

G-Pay

Google Pay is a mobile payment service that allows customers to use their Android watches, tablets, or phones to make payments for goods and services in-app, online, and in-person.

PhonePe and Google Pay made up 83% of the total amount of Unified Payments Interface payments

Paytm

Based in Noida, Paytm is an Indian provider of financial services and digital payments. Vijay Shekhar Sharma launched it in 2010 under One97 Communications.

The transaction values at Paytm Payments Bank, the third-largest UPI provider, increased by 34% month over month to Rs 80,508 crore with an 11% market share.

CRED

CRED is a Bangalore-based fintech business in India. It is a credit card payment app that uses rewards that was established in 2018 by Kunal Shah. Additionally, Cred offers short-term credit lines and allows customers to pay their rent on their homes

Cred, a financial start up, tripled its market share to 1.8% in H1FY22 from a mere 0.42% in H1FY21 on the strength of its inclusion on the coveted unicorn list.

Others

Whatsapp Pay

Despite a sluggish start, analysts predict that Whatsapp Pay will quickly overtake Walmart's PhonePe and GPay to win the most market share if it receives regulatory approval to launch fully.

Since its inception in December 2020, Whatsapp Pay has garnered a minuscule amount of market share in India's escalating UPI competition. Only 0.58 million UPI transactions out of the total 2.7 billion were handled by WhatsApp Pay in March. In reality, Whatsapp's payment service's transaction volume dropped to 0.56 million in January, the second month after it launched, from 0.81 million in December. Since then, the volume of transactions has remained constant.

Bhim

The National Payments Corporation of India created the Unified Payments Interface-based mobile payment app called BHIM.

Amazon Pay

Online payment processing service Amazon Pay is owned by Amazon. Launched in 2007, Amazon Pay focuses on offering consumers the opportunity to use their Amazon accounts to make purchases on websites run by external merchants while utilizing the customer base of Amazon.com.

NPCI Take and Rules ahead

The country's UPI operator, NPCI, declared last month that it will impose a cap of 30% on each player's transaction volume starting in 2021.

According to the rules, the market cap will be determined by the monthly transactions made on the app and will not take into account the total number of users.

When the number of transactions on a certain app exceeds the 25% transaction limit, NPCI will send an alert to the firm that owns the app. When the transactions on the same app exceed the 27% mark, a second alert will be sent. The total number of transactions conducted by UPI over the previous three months will be considered to determine the cap of 30%.

Existing players and third-party app providers (TPAPs) who exceed the set cap will have two years starting in January 2021 to gradually comply with the new rules.

Market giants Google Pay and PhonePe have strongly criticized this decision, arguing that it violates UPI's "free market" principles and might impede the development of the nation's payment infrastructure.

Conclusion

According to UPI's announcement in October 2020, there were 2,071.62 million total transactions, of which 1,655 million were completed using either PhonePe or Google Pay. Just four UPI applications handled over 97% of all transactions, while the remaining 17 UPI apps managed less than 3%.