Sensex Rises 790 Points - Should You Buy Now?

Sensex Rises 790 Points - Should You Buy Now?
TLDR
- Sensex recovers 790 points from the day’s low; Nifty closes above 23,650 as oil slips below $110 and bond yields ease.
- Rupee hits a fresh record low while foreign investors resume selling Indian equities, signaling continued currency risk.
- Top sector watch: Financials and IT; avoid real estate for now due to rate and currency sensitivity.
- Action: review your portfolio, maintain diversification, and consider measured deployment if you have a long horizon.
News Context and Market Impact
What Happened
The Sensex rebounded about 790 points from the day’s low, with the Nifty closing above 23,650. Oil prices slipped below $110 per barrel, aiding risk sentiment. Bond yields eased from recent highs, while the Rupee hit a fresh all-time low against the US dollar. Foreign institutions resumed selling Indian equities, keeping macro headwinds in view. Your portfolio may see a pullback in volatility, but currency and FII flows could cap gains.
Why This Matters
In the short term, this bounce reflects improved risk appetite even as macro overhangs persist. A weaker rupee can affect import costs and margins for listed firms, while softer yields can support equity valuations in rate-sensitive segments. For you, the key takeaway is that the market may move in fits and starts; stay nimble and avoid chasing momentum in individual names.
Portfolio and Strategy Focus
What This Means For Your Portfolio
For retail investors, the rebound offers a chance to recheck asset allocation. Favor quality large-cap names in banks and financials, and select IT exporters that can benefit from a softer rupee. Maintain diversification to cushion volatility and consider a modest hedge if your USD exposure is significant. Your risk controls should tighten when markets rally to prevent overexposure to any single name.
Swastika Investmart notes that retail investors should anchor to quality names and maintain diversified exposure during rebound periods. With currency moves and foreign flows in play, disciplined risk management and a long-term perspective remain essential for your portfolio.
Sectors To Watch - Priority Order
- 1st Priority: Financials - higher chance of leading gains as yields stabilize and loan growth supports profits
- 2nd Priority: IT - exporters benefit from rupee dynamics and potential earnings resilience
- Avoid Now: Real Estate - sensitivity to rates and foreign flow pressures
Action Points For Investors
- SIP investors: Continue disciplined monthly investments across broad-market funds to ride the rebound with risk control
- Lumpsum investors: If you have a long horizon, selectively add to high-quality financials or IT names while keeping stops
- Traders: Focus on liquidity and price action; use tight stops and avoid chasing momentum in mid-caps
In the current backdrop, a measured approach serves you best; avoid panic moves and stick to your plan rather than market rumors.
Risks and Cautions
Key Risks To Watch
- Continued rupee volatility could keep markets choppy, hurting sentiment and returns
- Persistent FII selling may cap upside momentum despite a rebound
- Oil price reversals or mixed macro data could reprice valuations quickly
Frequently Asked Questions
How will the Sensex rebound affect my portfolio?
The rebound can lift near-term holdings, especially large caps, but it doesn’t replace a solid plan—keep diversification and avoid over-concentration in momentum bets.
Is a weak rupee a risk for investments?
Rupee weakness usually benefits IT exporters and some importers; hedge if you have significant USD revenue exposure and monitor margins.
Which sectors look promising in this rebound?
Financials and IT may lead the rally if earnings hold up and currency moves stay favorable; stay selective and focus on quality names.
What should I do today about currency risk and foreign flows?
Review currency hedges and your USD exposure; rebalance toward diversified, high-quality stocks and maintain a cash reserve for liquidity needs.
Conclusion
The rebound presents opportunities in large-cap financials and IT, but currency volatility and ongoing foreign selling means you should stay diversified, use hedges where appropriate, and deploy capital in a measured, long-term manner.
Big Budget
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Stock Investors Alert! Paper Stocks on a Roll, Surge To a New Level
Stocks of the paper industry set a new record high as most of the frontline paper stocks are currently trading up to 15 percent higher with the majority of them experiencing a 52 week high level in intraday trading on this Wednesday.
Star Papers Mills, Orient Paper & Industries, and Seshasayee Paper and Boards have rallied over 10 per cent on the Bombay stock exchange.
Whereas Astron Paper & Board Mill, Andhra Paper, JK Paper, Tamil Nadu Newsprint and Paper, Ruchira Papers and West Coast Papers were on the 8 per cent on the Bombay Stock Exchange.
Yesterday, the S&P BSE Sensex was up to 0.20 per cent at 52,965 points hitting upper circuits.
Let’s look at how the paper stocks performed individually on Wednesday.
Stock Name Highest Stock Price Recorded on Intraday Trade Percentage Change Stock Price at the Time of Writing JK Paper 237.258%226.55Seshasayee Paper & Boards222.812%211.90Emami Paper189.5020%204.70Star Paper Mills17814.5%168.35Pudumjee Paper Products46.5020%44.20Orient Paper & Industries33.3013%31.90Malu Paper Mills38.9019%39.75
For all the companies that are listed above, J&K Paper stocks stood out in gains, jumping more than 40% in the last month.
For all the companies that are listed above, J&K Paper stocks stood out in gains, jumping more than 40% in the last month.
How JK Paper is Leading Amongst All!
According to a report, JK paper has booked a net profit of Rs 135.79 crore in the quarter ended in March 2021.
It is more than twice the number was recorded in the third quarter of FY 21. JK Paper’s consolidated net profit stood at Rs 65.94 Crores.
This company increased its net revenue by 20.5% to Rs. 898 Crores in the 4th from Rs 745 Crores in the preceding quarter.
According to the JK Paper, the elevated performance of its stocks results from increased production and sales volume than the previous quarter.
Although the company has yet to witness any impact of the second wave, its management team expects some sort of disturbance in the coming months.
Experts also said the demand is expected to pick up and grow by at least 11-15% in FY22 with school, colleges and office spaces likely to open and drive the demand.
Due to the outbreak of Covid 19, the paper and paper product industry is one of the worst affected industries. Closure of education institutions, work from home by offices,
Moreover, downcast demand also had a great impact on the prices of paper & paper products that further affected the revenues of the industry.
The long term demand of the paper industry always remains favourable as the demand increases by increasing literacy levels, growth in print media, higher government spending on the education sector, upgrading urban lifestyle and economic growth.
As the factors are likely to be continued for an extended period, the paper industry is likely to grow at 5-8% per annum in the coming years.
Going ahead, CRISIL expects a huge demand for printing and writing paper to grow at 1-3 per cent CAGR and reach 5.5 million tonnes by Fiscal 2025.
As the new education policy comes into effect, a slow rise in the education spend by the government (~20% higher spend) and increased expenditure on education is likely to support demand for the P & W segment, the company once said in a report.
Highlights in the Paper Sector
As per the CRISIL Report, P&W paper demand will increase at a CAGR between 1-3%, hence, giving a 5.5 million tonnes mark within fiscal 2025.
Enrolment of students is set to increase faster, ranging between 0.5% to 1% in the coming years.
As per the experts’ estimation, the demand for paper stocks is all set by 11-15% on a y-o-y basis in FY 23. The primary factor behind the rise of paper stocks is the possibility of reopening of schools, colleges, offices etc.
Impact on Consumers
Consumers will have to pay a tad more for buying anything from branded garments to fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) bought through e-commerce.
The corrugated box industry expects to increase a sharp cost in a short period and raw materials supply disruptions.
Material Shortage
Here, the rise in prices is the main issue. On the other hand, paper mills say they do not have the material.
A paper manufacturing company once said in a letter to its customer, the firm was forced to raise prices after the paper pulp prices increased 70-100% in the last 3 months.
The Kraft Paper Story
Paper prices, particularly kraft paper, have increased by the two factors; one is supply-side problems and the other is the availability of containers and ships.
Kraft paper mills say the prices of domestic and imported waste paper is rising due to supply misery as a result of Covid led lockdowns and international logistics disruptions.
The Chinese Angle
China had been importing waste paper from all over the world before the ban. For instance, it includes all waste paper generated in the US, Europe and other developed nations. The waste paper was recycled to manufacture paper.
Given the ban on wastes, Chinese paper mills were unable to get the main raw materials and they began to import the kraft paper from India. Kraft paper is recycled paper and Chinese mills use it as a fibre source to manufacture paper.
Waste Paper Supply Issues
Companies are also facing issues regarding the availability and prices of waste paper. As the educational institutes closed due to the Covid 19 pandemic, the usage of notebooks and exercise books also declined. This has further increased the demand for paper used for writing and printing dropping.
All these things waste paper supplies. Also, China has set up new units in the US and south-east Asia to convert the waste paper into pulp and send them home.
This has resulted in the domestic industry facing problems in sourcing waste paper and recycling it.
The Bottom Line
As far as the long term is concerned, the demand for the Indian paper industry needs to be increased. Some of the important factors include economic growth, literacy rates, spending on education etc. In addition to this, print media’s growth to a new level is also something that investors need to consider. If these factors do not hamper the growth of the paper industry, the Indian paper industry is likely to expand rapidly over the next few years.

8 Large Cap Funds With Exceptionally Good Returns Since January 1, 2021
Since the year’s beginning; the stock market’s performance has done exceptionally well with Sensex breaching the 53,000 points mark again.
Here are 8 large-cap funds that have given outstanding stock market trading returns since January 2021.
All of these funds are not rated by some of the leading agencies that conduct research, hence they are not suggested to invest. Before taking a dig deep into large-cap funds; let’s understand the large-cap funds in detail:
Large Cap Funds
Large-cap funds are a part of equity trading; are equity schemes that heavily invest in large-cap companies. These funds constitute at least 80% of their total assets in equity related instruments in large-cap companies.
As per the SEBI, the best 100 companies, having a full market capitalization are categorized as large-cap companies.
Reasons to Invest in Large Cap Funds
Large-cap companies have a competitive edge in their respective sectors. Also, they have a sustainable market share which makes them large-cap companies. The companies that come under large-cap companies have steady cash flows, strong balance sheets that makes them strong enough to handle difficult situations.
These companies are traded more frequently and as a result, they are more liquid than other companies.
The factors stated above make large-cap companies less volatile than other companies and more capable of withstanding stock market downturns.
Hence, by investing in large-cap funds, investors will save themselves from the jeopardy of selecting independent stocks while benefiting from a diversified portfolio that consists of top Indian companies.
Generally, large-cap funds constitute the base of at least 50% of equity’s portfolio.
1. Franklin India Bluechip Fund
As per the stock market research agency, the fund Franklin India Bluechip Fund has given an outstanding return of 23.40%, since the beginning of the year. This is only for mutual funds that come in the large-cap fund. Although the company Franklin India Bluechip fund invests in a variety of companies, they're majorly invested in large-cap companies.
The long term returns from this fund are 13.44% on an annualized return for 3 years and 11.2% on an annualized basis for 5 years. The SIP of Franklin India Bluechip Fund starts with a small amount of Rs 1000 every month.
2. Tata Large Cap Fund
As per the research report from top analysts, the fund comes under the second position among large-cap stocks as they give high returns since the beginning of the year. The fund gave a return of 20.87% from 1 January to 14 July 2021. This fund invests in large-cap blue-chip companies.
SIP of Tata Large Cap Fund starts with Rs 150 per month. The Tata large Cap Fund is not that big company under the management is less than Rs 1000 Crore.
The three-year return of Tata large Cap Fund is 12.6%, while the five-year returns are 11.91%. As per the sources, Tata large Cap Fund has invested in major stocks like ICICI, HDFC etc.
3. Mahindra Manu Large Cap Pragati Yojna
Since January 2021, the stock has been able to generate returns of 19.38%, and that’s the reason the fund has been ranked as No.3 in stock rating for the year to date returns in the large-cap category.
The fund is very small and newly launched, hence it is not possible to analyze the long term returns. The AUM of this fund is Rs 123 Crores. Since the company has holdings in stocks such as ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries and Infosys.
The minimum investment amount of the fund Mahindra Manulife is Rs 1000 every month.
4. Nippon India Large Cap Fund
Like the above companies, Nippon India Large Cap Fund invests in the major listed companies in the business. The fund is ranked fourth in terms of the returns it gave to the investors up to date. Surprisingly, the fund allows investors to start a SIP of Rs 100, and the minimum amount required to invest is Rs 100.
On an annualized return, the three-year return of the fund is almost 13.5%, which is in line with how the markets have performed the previous year.
We wish to emphasize the fact that the Sensex at Rs 53,000 points is at a new record and any large scale exposure to large-cap equity mutual funds can consume wealth. Therefore, it’s more important to invest, if you select the SIP mode of this fund.
5. IDBI India Top 100 Equity Fund
The fund gave 18.21% with the year to date which makes this fund come in the large-cap fund. This large-cap fund gives exposure to stocks like ICICI, HDFC Bank, Infosys. Many investors don't suggest going for the fund as if the stock market goes up or down, it will highly affect the fund’s growth rate.
6. ICICI Prudential Bluechip Fund
The fund heavily invests in large-cap companies as the fund has good quality management, strong fundamentals, growth potential and a proven track record. The strategy is maintained at the ICICI Prudential Bluechip Fund so as to ensure portfolio diversification and minimize concentration risks.
It adopts a buy and holds strategy for investing while selecting the bottom-up approach for the selection of stock.
The fund also takes huge exposure to high conviction scripts in order to generate outstanding returns in a short period of time.
7. SBI Bluechip Fund
The scheme mainly invests in large-cap stocks that have a good brand entity and market sectors in their respective segments. This is because the funds may also invest up to 20% of their portfolio in equities than other funds.
The fund follows a combination of investing and growth with a mix of top-down approach and bottom-up approach for the selection of stocks across different sectors.
8. IDFC Large Cap Fund
IDFC funds invest in large-cap companies with an opportunistic allocation to small and mid-cap companies not exceeding 20% of the fund portfolio. The objective is to generate consistent returns with low volatility.
The fund is based on three pillars - buying the right sectors, buying the sector leaders, and allocation to small/mid-cap stocks.
Takeaway
Mutual funds are always known for better returns. Also, these investments are much less risky than other equity-related instruments.
Therefore, many investors always prefer mutual funds over other equity-related instruments. Amongst all mutual fund schemes, large-cap funds are often associated with fewer risks and also they offer a minimum amount as a SIP.

बढ़ती मुद्रास्फीति से मजबूत हुआ सोना।
सोने के भाव एमसीएक्स और कॉमेक्स में लगातार चार सप्ताह से बढ़त बनाए हुए है। सोने के विपरीत चलने वाला डॉलर इंडेक्स पिछले चार सप्ताह से सीमित दायरे में बना हुआ है और ऊपरी स्तरों पर इसमें दबाव भी रहा है जिसके चलते सोने के भाव को अच्छा सपोर्ट मिला है।
अमेरिका की लम्बी अवधि की बांड उपज में लगातार तीसरे सप्ताह गिरावट दर्ज की गई है और 10 साल की बांड उपज 1.54 प्रतिशत से घटकर 1.33 प्रतिशत तक के स्तरों पर है। निवेश के लिहाज से सोने के विकल्प के रूप में देखे जाने वाले बिटकॉइन में बिकवाली का दबाव बना हुआ है और यह पिछले सप्ताह 6 प्रतिशत टूट गया है जिससे निवेशकों का रुझान सोने की तरफ बना हुआ है।
अमेरिकी फेड प्रमुख जेरोम पावेल ने अपने बयान में मुद्रास्फीति को अस्थाई बताया है और सेंट्रल बैंक द्वारा अमेरिकी अर्थव्यवस्था को सपोर्ट करते रहने को कहा। हालांकि, निवेशकों को व्यापक रूप से उम्मीद है कि फेड 2022 के अंत तक संपत्ति की कमी शुरू कर देगा और 2022 की शुरुआत में ब्याज दर में वृद्धि की भी संभावना है।
लेकिन यह भी स्वीकार करना होगा कि कोविड डेल्टा संस्करण का डर एक बड़ा आर्थिक जोखिम बना हुआ है जिससे सोने के भाव को सपोर्ट है। सोने के प्रमुख उपभोक्ता चीन से दूसरी तिमाही के सकल घरेलू उत्पाद (जीडीपी) के आंकड़े अनुमान से कम दर्ज किये गए है। कच्चे माल की उच्च लागत और नए कोविड -19 के बढ़ते मामले जीडीपी में धीमी वृद्धि के कारण रहे है।
घरेलु वायदा सोना 0.7 प्रतिशत सप्ताह में तेज़ रहा और कीमते 48250 रुपये प्रति दस ग्राम के करीब रही। चांदी के भाव में भी सुधार रहा लेकिन यह सप्ताह में सपाट रह कर 69300 रुपये प्रति किलो पर रहे।
तकनीकी विश्लेषण
इस सप्ताह सोने और चांदी में हल्के सुधार के बाद तेज़ी रहने के आसार नज़र आ रहे है। सोने में 48600 रुपये पर प्रतिरोध और 47500 रुपये पर सपोर्ट है। चांदी में 71000 रुपये पर प्रतिरोध और 68400 रुपये पर सपोर्ट है।

Top Reasons Why SEBI is Strengthening Independent Directors
SEBI aka Securities and Boards of India (SEBI) has recently approved well-informed investors from the category of wealth who will be allowed to invest in riskier products, which are usually allowed to individuals. Termed accredited investors could be family trusts, individuals, proprietorships, etc. The regulator’s board also strict the norms for the independent directors. Also, it has been mentioned that independent directors can be appointed only through a special resolution passed by the shareholders. The resolution requires a total of 75% votes in favour to be passed. Furthermore, the regulator also has explained and strengthened the disclosure requirements for the skills required to be an independent director. Moreover, the regulator said that the nomination and remuneration committee finally decides on the appointments and compensations that should have two-thirds independent directors compared to a majority now. SEBI or the regulator also specify that all the related party transactions will be approved by only independent directors.The board further said that the entire resignation letter of an independent director should be disclosed along with present directorships and membership of the board committee. All the changes that have been mentioned above will take effect from January 2022. As per the SEBI officials, they will set eligibility criteria for the investors who can get the accreditation from the top stock exchanges, subsidiaries of depositories and more. The regulator had floated a consultation paper in February which had specified some of the criteria such as annual income that must be at least 2 Crore or minimum net worth of 7.5 Crore or minimum annual income of 1 Crore with a minimum net worth of Rs 1 Crore. Authorized investors have the flexibility to invest the minimum amount mandated in SEBI rules and subject to certain conditions from regulatory requirements.SEBI also came up with a new idea in order to minimize insider trading. For instance, it has extended the maximum reward amount for an informant who gives the information on insider trading from Rs 10 Crore to 1 Crore. It has also extended the payment of rewards to informants. The regulator has also approved several changes to its mutual fund regulations that require asset management companies to need more funds in riskier schemes so that they have more skin in the game. As of now, AMC is required to invest only one percent of the amount raised in an NFO that is Rs 50 lakhs. Furthermore, the SEBI also allows debt issuers who have a less than 3-year track record so that they can raise more funds than they issue only on a private placement basis on an exchange bond bidding platform.
Definition of Independent Director
The first proposal is directly proportional to the definition of an independent director. As of now, the restrictions are set only to those who have been known to be the termed accredited investors, such as family trusts and proprietorships. Also, the restrictions for those who have had a direct relationship with the directors. The cooling-off period for each was three and two years respectively. In order to maintain a balance, SEBI has proposed to introduce a single cooling-off period for three years. This means, if any person belongs to Key Managerial Persons or its relatives that have had a relationship with the company, its subsidiaries, or promoters, can be appointed as an independent director in a listed entity only three years from the date.
Dual Approval Process for Appointment, Reappointment and Removal of Independent Directors
Under SEBI regulations, the directors are appointed and nominated by the company’s board and the approval needs to be taken by shareholders through an ordinary resolution.
- If we talk about the case of promoter led companies, the shareholder vote outcome would be decided by the majority. In order to give a non-promoter or public shareholder a strong authority, SEBI has decided on a dual approval process for appointment, re-appointment of independent directors from the board of a listed entity.
- Special care needs to be taken while appointing independent directors:
- Appointment, re-appointment would require the approval of shareholders and majority or minority of shareholders both.
- The shareholder’s vote would be counted through ordinary or special resolution as is the existing case appointments and reappointments.
- Both the votes can be done via a single process and meeting.
- Any candidate, if in any case fails to get dual approval can be proposed again for independent directorship through a second vote after a period of 90 days.
- The same process would apply for the removal of independent directors.
SEBI has given more detailed disclosures by the Nomination and Remuneration Committee regarding the selection of candidates for the post of independent director. If there is a vacancy in the name of an independent director, the new candidate appointed by the board must need approval within 3 months.
Resignation of Independent Director
In order to strengthen the disclosure around the resignation of independent directors, SEBI has proposed the following: The entire resignation letter needs to be disclosed to the shareholders along with a list of membership in the committees of the board. The independent director, who resigns from a board citing pre-occupation, and personal commitments is subjected to a cooling period of 1 year before he/she joins another board.
Audit Committee
As of now, two-thirds of the board's committee needs to compromise independent directors. The decisions made by audit committees range from the finalization of accounts to related party transactions; SEBI has proposed the following:2/3rds of the total strength of an audit committee needs to be composed of independent directors, while the remaining must be non-executive directors who are not related to the promoter.
Independent Directors: Appointment Rules
SEBI board toughen norms for independent directors. It is said that independent directors can be appointed through a special type of resolution passed by the shareholders.
Takeaway
SEBI has now sought the views of the Ministry of corporate affairs on this issue, as any change would first have to be applied to company law before SEBI could follow suit. The president and Chief Operating Officer of numerous advisory firms said the discussion paper provides the increasing expectations of investors from independent directors.

सोना-चांदी पर रिपोर्ट
मिले-जुले वैश्विक रुझान से सोना-चांदी में तेज़ी।
अमेरिकी फेड की नई मुद्रा नीति पर बैठक के बाद सोने के भाव में फिर बढ़त देखि गई। एक मजबूत होता डॉलर और घटती यू.एस. ट्रेजरी उपज सोने के लिए लाभ को सीमित भी कर रही है। डॉलर, जो आमतौर पर सोने के विपरीत चलता है, तीन महीने में अपने उच्चतम स्तर पर पहुंच गया है। लेकिन अमेरिकी बांड उपज में गिरावट सोने के भाव को सपोर्ट कर रही है।
फेड की जून की बैठक के मिनटों ने संकेत दिया कि केंद्रीय बैंक 2021 के अंत तक अपनी संपत्ति खरीद को कम करने की दिशा में कदम उठा रहा है। हालांकि फेड अधिकारियों ने अमेरिकी आर्थिक सुधार पर आगे की प्रगति को जारी रहना जरुरी बताया और वे सहमत हुए की उम्मीद से ज्यादा जल्दी संपत्ति को घटाने की आवश्यकता है।
जबकि यूरोपियन सेंट्रल बैंक द्वारा फेड के विपरीत नजरिया रखा गया है। अटलांटा फेड के अध्यक्ष राफेल बॉस्टिक ने चेतावनी दी कि अधिक घातक डेल्टा प्लस संस्करण कोवीड-19 मामलों में एक नया उछाल लेकर आ सकता है और उपभोक्ताओं को बाज़ारो से दूर कर सकता है जो अमेरिकी सुधार को धीमा करने का कारण बन सकता है।
उधर, चीन की सरकारी बॉन्ड यील्ड में तेजी से गिरावट आई, क्योकि अधिकारी अर्थव्यवस्था का समर्थन करने के लिए बैंकों के रिज़र्व रेश्यो में समय पर कटौती का उपयोग करेंगे। पिछले सप्ताह चीन की तरफ से रिज़र्व रेश्यो रेट 0.5 प्रतिशत घटाया गया है। कॉमेक्स में सोना 1 प्रतिशत सप्ताह में तेज़ होकर 1800 डॉलर प्रति औंस और घरेलु वायदा सोना भी करीब 1 प्रतिशत तेज़ होकर 47700 रुपये प्रति दस ग्राम पर रहा है।
तकनीकी विश्लेषण
सोने और चांदी में इस सप्ताह तेज़ी बनी रहने की सम्भावना है। सोने में 48400 रुपये पर प्रतिरोध है और 47400 रुपये पर सपोर्ट है। चांदी में 71000 रुपये पर प्रतिरोध और 66000 रुपये पर सपोर्ट है।

तीन साल की ऊंचाई के करीब पहुंचे कच्चे तेल के भाव।
पिछले सप्ताह हुई ओपेक देशो की बैठक में कच्चे तेल के उत्पादन में अनुमान से धीमी गति से बढ़ोतरी करने और मांग बढ़ने के संकेत पर अमेरिकी कच्चा तेल 2 डॉलर प्रति बैरल तक तेज़ हुआ है। और ऑक्टूबर 2018 के स्तरों पर कीमते पहुंच चुकी है।
ओपेक और अन्य तेल उत्पादक देश अपनी बैठक में अगस्त और दिसंबर के बीच बाजार में लगभग 20 लाख बैरल प्रति दिन (बीपीडी) तेल जोड़ने की ओर बढ़ रहा है। उत्पादन में 50 लाख बीपीडी तक बढ़ोतरी का अनुमान था लेकिन इसको घटा देने पर कच्चे तेल के भाव में तेज़ी जारी रही। कच्चे तेल की बढ़ती हुई मांग के कारण केवल 20 लाख बैरल की आपूर्ति बढ़ाना, कीमतों को सपोर्ट कर रही है। बाजार अनुमानित उत्पादन वृद्धि को आसानी से अवशोषित कर सकता है।
अनुमान के मुताबिक 50 लाख बैरल प्रतिदिन तक भी बाजार अवशोषित कर सकता है। अनुमान है कि साल की दूसरी छमाही में तेल की मांग में तेजी आएगी क्योंकि अधिक लोगों को कोवीड-19 के खिलाफ टीका लगाया जा चुका होगा और यात्रा प्रतिबंधों में ढील दे दी जाएगी। वर्ष की पहली छमाही में, आर्थिक सुधार और तेल की मांग में वृद्धि हुई है।
पिछले सप्ताह जारी ऊर्जा सूचना प्रशासन के आंकड़ों से पता चलता है कि बढ़ती मांग के कारण संयुक्त राज्य अमेरिका में कच्चे तेल का भंडार पिछले सप्ताह भी घट गया है। एमसीएक्स जुलाई वायदा में पिछले सप्ताह 150 रुपये प्रति बैरल तक की तेज़ी देखि गई है और इसके भाव 5650 रुपये प्रति बैलर के स्तरों पर पहुंच गए है। ब्रेंट और अमेरिकी डब्लूटीआई कच्चे तेल के भाव 75 डॉलर प्रति बैरल के स्तरों पर है।
तकनीकी विश्लेषण:
एमसीएक्स कच्चे तेल के जुलाई वायदा में इस सप्ताह तेज़ी जारी रह सकती है और इसमें 5750 रुपये पर प्रतिरोध है और 5300 रुपये पर सपोर्ट है।
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