Adani Power ₹4,194 Cr Stake - Should You Buy or Hold in Your Portfolio?

अर्थव्यवस्था मे महामारी के कारण हो रहे उतर चढ़ाव के के साथ ही औद्योगिक धातुओं के भाव सात साल के उच्च स्तरों पर पहुंच गए है। पिछले सप्ताह एमसीएक्स दिसंबर वायदा कॉपर और निकल क्रमशः 1 प्रतिशत और 5 प्रतिशत तक तेज़ हुए है। पर्यावरण के प्रति जागरूकता और पर्यावरण के अनुकूल कारों और ऊर्जा स्रोतों के लिए वैश्विक मांग बदल रही है, ऐसे में उपयोग की जाने वाली प्रमुख धातुओं के लिए बाजार में एक सवाल उठता हैं: क्या इन प्रमुख धातुओं की पर्याप्त आपूर्ति होगी। गुरुवार को चीनी स्टील मिलों की मांग के कारण निकल तेज़ हुआ है। कोवीड से उबरने के बाद दुनिया के सबसे बड़े औद्योगिक धातुओं के उपभोक्ता चीन मे, मिलो से कच्चे माल की मांग आने लगी है।

डॉलर इंडेक्स मे आई गिरावट औद्योगिक धातुओं की खरीद को सस्ता कर रहा है। कोरोना वायरस टीकों पर आने वाली सकारात्मक जानकारी वायरस द्वारा बनाई गई अनिश्चितता कम होती है। नवंबर के लिए चीन का मैन्युफैक्चरिंग पीएमआई 52.1 तक बढ़ गया, जबकि बड़ी कंपनियों और राज्य के स्वामित्व वाले क्षेत्र के बाहर गति विधि का स्पष्ट चित्र देने वाला कैक्सिन मैन्युफैक्चरिंग पीएमआई 54.9 के दस साल के उच्च स्तर पर पहुंच गया है।

निर्माण सूचकांक विशेष रूप से मजबूत है, जो 59.8 से बढ़कर 60.5 हो गया है। कॉपर की कीमतें हमेशा अर्थव्यवस्था के स्वास्थ की तरफ संकेत करती है। चीनी नए साल के पहले चीनी मिलो द्वारा स्टॉक करने के कारण भी औद्योगिक धातुओं के भाव बढ़ रहे है। औद्योगिक धातुओं के भाव मे तेज़ी अर्थव्यवस्था मे विकास की संभावना को बढ़ाता है।

तकनीकी विश्लेषण:

औद्योगिक धातुओं मे इस सप्ताह तेज़ी जारी रह सकती है। दिसंबर वायदा कॉपर मे 585 रुपय के निचले स्तरों पर सपोर्ट है तथा 608 रुपय पर प्रतिरोध है। निकल मे 1275 रुपय के निचले स्तरों पर सपोर्ट और 1313 रुपय पर प्रतिरोध है।

"Yes I got a job now I'll soon settle and fulfill all my dreams. First of all, I'll buy a car, then a house, later on, we'll go for a long vacation. Do you think it's all easy? Maybe if we go for proper planning for our future goals then it's achievable, But wait what to do for achieving this. Again a question arises "My salary is only a piece of cake and my goals is a full apple pie" Yeah it is a tough job to accomplish them all in a short span of time, But yes this all can be done over a period of time, As of now I am only 26 will focus to get them done by the time I get settled in my life."

This may be the story of every young boy or girl who got a new job and started planning to get the thing done as soon as possible.

A famous quote of Warren Buffet:-

"We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful"

An average earning person spends almost 35 years approx by the age he/she retires by the age of 60 till the time he faces many obstacles while in his/her earning span. And at the phase of time, we always plan to allocate our sum in that manner from where we get a good return for our whole life.

As Warren Buffet said "Never depend on one earning" so we should focus on various sources from which we can get an additional earning.

For creating an additional source, one should make sure about the future outlook, what is the major objective and yes how it can be achieved, That's the time when everyone starts saving for their future.

Let's assume the monthly earning of Mr X is Rs 50000/- an individual (age 26) going to get settled after 2 years so how he decided his ideal portfolio where he decided to park approx 30% of his monthly salary in various instruments.

Most Common Investment Instruments for Salaried Individuals

So let's have a look:

The first and the most common instrument one selects is SIP, yes Systematic Investment Plan, An individual can park a handsome sum in a simple installment manner where his pocket won't feel the pressure. One can plan to have 4 to 5 Sip's for his/ her financial goal, this will always be beneficial in long run. And even the most important benefit you get is the rupee cost averaging.

The Second important instrument is an equity investment, one of the most favorable instruments for "High risk & High return" at a young age the risk capacity is more so investment made inequities can be done for a better return. What all we earn is always less as compared to our needs & wants. With the help of equity investment, one can achieve them, though the risk is higher in this instrument.

Life is full of uncertainties. We often face many situations where we need extra monetary support for all such things one should take an Insurance Policy, to secure ourselves and even our family members. Insurance can be any maybe Health Insurance, General Insurance etc., this can't be compared as an investment instrument but yes it's an important part of our portfolio for the future benefits.

Last but not least it's not necessary we get a good return from equity, Debt instruments should be on our list so that at the time we can have a fixed return in our pocket too. Sometimes when risk-taking capacity declines, we may switch our savings in those instruments where returns are fixed so that in the time of crisis or any pandemic situation we will not be affected by it.

Note:

This is a fictionalized story. The events, characters, and situations are fictitious but based on real experience. Any similarities or resemblances to actual people or person, living or dead is purely coincidental

Sometime in June 2007, I was working at Google! Back when from campus placements. I was 26 yrs old, fresh into a dream job with an obvious promise of “making me well settled.” I had some weird notions about “Getting Very Rich Very Fast” back then. I was good with numbers, knew about stock markets basics and considered myself to be “analytical”, so I thought I am smart, very disciplined internally and can dominate the stock market.

Now, there was one more guy in our new joiners group who was equally enthusiastic about the stock market (that guy is now an IAS officer) and just like a smoker finds another smoker in a big group, we found each other and became buddies. We did the basics, and opened a trading and demat account.

While we were ready to start our journey in stock markets. We got to know that there is something called Options (derivatives) apart from regular stocks. We got to know that it is a high risk/return thing, and like any greedy person, we didn’t focus too much on the “high risk” part, the only thing we could read was the “high return” part

Learning about Options trading opened up to a whole new world for us. We learned that options trading is an amazing leverage tool which was very fascinating. I learned about technical analysis also and used all my work time in downloading and learning about this (oh it was so amazingly easy!)

As we went head over heels, our greed went to the next level and our profit margin went really REALLY high (but we didn’t focus too much on the risk factor, in fact, we were not even clear on where we are entering into and how risky it can turn out to be).

So we're all set with high energy but could not take any action because our trading account was still not active at that time and we were waiting for it.

In the beginning, I made Rs 2,500 profit, a 24% profit during just my LUNCHTIME! I was already planning to leave my job!

My overconfidence was rising way above the sky, and then there was only one way for me to go: DOWN!

Mistake #1 – I focused too much on Knowledge

I realized that “knowledge” is just a secondary element to trade successfully in stock markets. Almost all the good traders around the world agree that “knowledge” does not contribute more than 10-15% to being a successful trader. It’s an important thing, but certainly not the holy grail

I am not saying that one should not focus on the “knowledge” part. Too much knowledge leads to speculation, and that’s where I went horribly wrong. Always make sure to keep your Research Strong, and not to go with instinct alone.

Mistake #2 – I went against the Trend

What I have seen is that all the new traders somewhere want to challenge the markets and want to predict when markets will fall and when they will rise. They all want to time the market (and I did that all the time!)

This is the essence of where most of the failed traders are stuck. If markets are rising, somewhere inside me, I wanted to catch the top and wanted to prove as if I “almost” know that now markets will fall OR if markets were going down.

So just make sure that you never go against the flow in general. Try to identify the overall trend (upside, downside) and then make sure whatever is your trading style, be with the flow itself.

Conclusion

Today I have shared the mistakes I did when I traded OPTIONS and I hope you will learn from my mistakes. But this can just be a starting point only, you will only learn when you get on the ground and do the real trading. Till then it’s just a practice no matter what you do.

An ideal investment portfolio is a basic need of every person, But the most important thing is proper asset allocation as per the requirement of financial goals, the ability to take a risk. Which means our portfolio should try to attain the requirement of our future needs and will give you ease and stress-free life after retirement.

How one can achieve this?

Practically, no one can achieve this without proper investment strategies and an approach to future requirements. One should be very clear with his future goals and objective because it takes ample time to create wealth as there is a famous saying "Rome was not built in a day". yes, that's truly saying no one can become a millionaire overnight. For achieving this one should follow some basic steps.

Basics Steps Towards Creating an Ideal Portfolio.

Identification of Future Needs:

The most important point is to identify our future requirements, this can't be described in a single line, because everyone is having a different mindset and objectives, Some of us want to go for a long vacation, some wants to open a new business or anything. For all this, our allocation of sum should be proper and should be in that manner where all the financial needs would be fulfilled.

Investment Horizon:

As it's mentioned earlier " Rome was not built in a day" actually means whatever objective we have takes time to achieve, For example, if require a sum of Rs 10000 after 2 months it just takes a small cut in our expenses if my salary is enough. But if your goal is higher education for your children then you must know how much time will it take to achieve that goal. And you must identify the asset class which will help you to achieve the same.

Allocation of the Fund in Proper Asset Class:

Once you are clear with the goals & time, The next step you need to take is parking the sum in the proper asset class. This actually depends on the approach of an individual. The major fact is that how much you are ready to allocate, will actually depend upon the risk tolerance capacity.

Know your Risk Capacity:

The most important thing is the capacity of taking the risk to achieve our goal which means if our approach is aggressive then we will be more focused on equities or equity-related instruments. But if it is conservative then We must focus more on Debt instruments where the return are fixed in nature. As time passes out we turned out to be more of conservative nature the aggressive because with the span of time responsibilities increase our approach towards the goals should be safer and secure.

National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange of India (NCDEX) has again re-launched the future contract in GUR (Feed Grade) and will be available for trading from December 15, 2020, with a lot size of 10MT.

OVERVIEW:

Jaggery (GUR) is produced all over the country, wherever sugarcane is produced. Similarly, it is consumed in all parts of the country. Further, the product is seasonal in nature i.e. its production takes place only from October to April in a year but its consumption takes place throughout the year. It is primarily produced from Sugarcane.

Globally India is the leading producer of jaggery contributing to 60% of total production, where Brazil is the major exporter of jaggery, and the USA, China, and Indonesia being the largest importer in the world. If we look into India, then Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu are the top jaggery producing states contributing to around 80% of the total production in India.

The major stakeholders in the GUR value chain include Farmers, Processors, and Traders who perform various activities from production, harvesting to processing, jaggery making, packaging and marketing.

FUTURE CONTRACT IN GUR:

As there has been continuous growth in the overall production of GUR and because of high volatility in its prices so to hedge the risk, NCDEX has launched the futures contract in GUR (Feed Grade). A considerable amount of the total production of Gur is used as feed. Therefore, the price has a considerable impact on the overall feed cost.

Muzaffarnagar (Uttar Pradesh) is the basis centre for the GUR Futures contract because of the availability of good infrastructure support and various processing units, Further, it is the only delivery centre for the same.

KEY BENEFITS:

• Hedging can be done by the ones who are the major users of GUR as whether they are producers, commission agents, traders, processors or retailers.
• Being the alternative to sugar, it will be a good trading option as there are no active future contracts of sugar.

CONTRACT SPECIFICATIONS:

• Ticker symbol - GUR
• Trading Unit – 10 MT
• Delivery Unit - 10 MT
• Maximum Order Size - 500 MT
• Quotation / Base Value - per 40 Kg
• Tick Size – Re.0.50 (50 paise)
• Quantity Variation - +/- 5%
• Basis - Ex-Cold Storage Warehouse Muzaffarnagar, inclusive of local taxes, exclusive of GST
• Delivery Logic - Compulsory Delivery
• Delivery Specification - Upon expiry of the contracts all the outstanding open positions shall result in compulsory delivery.
• Due date/ Expiry Date 20th day of the delivery month - If the 20th happens to be a holiday, a Saturday, or a Sunday, then the expiry date (or due date) shall be the immediately preceding trading day of the Exchange, which is other than a Saturday.

Company Background

Mrs Bectors Food Specialities Ltd was founded by Mrs Rajni Bector and promoted by Mr Anoop Bector which was incorporated in 1995, Mrs Bectors Food Specialities Ltd is one of the leading companies in the premium and mid-premium biscuits segment and the premium bakery segment in North India.

Mrs Bectors Food Specialities Ltd manufactures and markets a wide range of biscuits such as cookies, creams, crackers, digestives and glucose under the flagship brand ‘Mrs. Bector’s Cremica’. Mrs Bectors Food Specialities Ltd also manufactures and markets bakery products in savoury and sweet categories which include loaves of bread, buns, pizza bases and cakes under the brand ‘English Oven’.

Mrs Bectors Food Specialities Ltd supplies products to retail consumers in 26 states within India, as well as to reputed institutional customers with pan-India presence and to 64 countries across six continents during the Financial Year ended March 31, 2020.

‘Mrs. Bector’s Cremica’ is one of the leading biscuit brands in the premium and mid-premium segment in Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh and ‘English Oven’ is one of the largest selling brands in the premium bakery segment in Delhi NCR, Mumbai and Bengaluru.

We are the largest supplier of buns in India to reputed QSR chains such as Burger King India Limited, Connaught Plaza Restaurants Private Limited, Hardcastle Restaurants Private Limited, and Yum! Restaurants (India) Private Limited.

Mrs Bectors products are manufactured in-house at six manufacturing facilities located in Phillaur and Rajpura (Punjab), Tahliwal (Himachal Pradesh), Greater Noida (Uttar Pradesh), Khopoli (Maharashtra) and Bengaluru (Karnataka), which enables them to have effective control over the manufacturing process and to ensure consistent quality of our products.

Manufacturing facilities are strategically located in proximity to our target markets, which minimizes freight and logistics related to time and expenses.

Basic IPO details

IPO Opening Date15-Dec-20IPO Closing Date17-Dec-20Face Value₹10 per equity shareIPO Price₹286 to ₹288 per equity shareMarket Lot50 SharesIssue SizeAggregating up to ₹540.54 CrFresh IssueAggregating up to ₹40.54 CrOffer for SaleAggregating up to ₹500.00 CrRetail Allocation35%Listing AtBSE, NSETentative Listing Date28-Dec-20

Objects of the Issue

The company will not receive any proceeds from OFS while the proceeds from the fresh issue will be utilized

• To finance the cost of Rajpura Expansion Project.
• To meet general corporate purposes.

Financial Performance (in INR crore)

FY2018FY2019FY2020H1 FY2021Revenue696786765439Expenses643735726387Net income36333038Net margin (%)5.24.23.98.8

Outlook

Seeing the attraction in Burger King IPO and the outlook for QSR we expect that Mrs Bectors Food Specialities Ltd will be another attractive IPO for the investors. The fundamentals of the company don’t look good as of now as they have seen very slow growth in the last 3 years also debt have increased form 35 cr in 2017 to 85 cr in 2020.

The company is well-positioned in North India and has an opportunity to expand in the South and other parts of India. The company does not have any contract with the institutional customer which is the key risk for the company also bakery business has low entry barrier as it can be started with low investment.

However, the demand from the QSR chains will be a key beneficiary for the company. We recommend a SUBSCRIBE rating to the IPO only for the aggressive investors for listing gain and short term.