How to Read Commodity Futures Data: OI, Rollover & Basis Explained

IPOs are on the boom and many companies want to go public. In CY20 we saw many companies got listed and generated wealth for the investors. In 2017, we saw companies going public in bulk, and yet again in 2021 we expect the same trend will continue with many well-known companies trying to go public. In the few months, we may see few companies getting listed such as Kalyan Jewellers, Suryoday Small Finance Bank, ESAF Small Finance Bank, Nazara Technologies, RailTel Corporation, Sigachi Industries, Heranba Industries, Antony Waste Handling Cell, Mrs Bectors Food Specialities, Indigo Paints, Nureca and Stove Kraft. We recently saw Burger Kings subscribe 157 times which suggests that there will be demand for fundamentally sound companies. Along with the above-stated companies, there are few other companies on which we should keep an eye.

1. LIC (Life Insurance Corporation of India)

Life Insurance Corporation of India which is abbreviated as LIC is an Indian state-owned insurance group and investment corporation owned by the Government of India. LIC was founded on 1st September 1956 under the LIC act 1956. LIC started its operations with 5 crores which have now reached 31 lakh crore. LIC currently has 8 zonal offices, 113 divisional offices, 2,048 branch offices, and 12 lakhs+ agents which are present in 14 countries.

LIC IPO is a dream come true for many investors which might go public in 2021 which will be one of the biggest IPO in the Indian market. It is expected that it would hold the same limelight as Aramco IPO. Deloitte has been fixed as the pre-initial public offer (IPO) transaction advisors and it is expected that LIC will sell up to 10% of the stake in the IPO and IPO size is expected to be in between Rs. 80,000 crore to Rs. 1 lakh crore.

2. NCDEX (National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited)

National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited which is abbreviated as NCDEX is an online commodity exchange based in India. NCDEX is the leading agricultural commodity exchange in India which was incorporated on 23rd April 2003. NCDEX has offices in Mumbai, Delhi, Ahmedabad, Indore, Hyderabad, Jaipur, and Kolkata. NCDEX’s network comprised 380 members, 13,316 terminals, nine WSPs, 12 clearing banks, 41 financial institutions, and 246 FPOs representing 461,619 farmers, thereby encouraging a virtuous cycle, as of September 2019.

NCDEX would be the third exchange to get listed in the Indian Stock market after BSE and MCX. NCDEX is expected to launch its IPO in CY 21 and the IPO size is expected to be around Rs. 500 crore. ICICI Securities Limited and SBI Capital Markets Limited has been fixed as the lead manager to handle the IPO.

3. NSDL (National Securities Depository Limited)

National Securities Depository Limited abbreviated as NSDL is an Indian central securities depository headquartered in Mumbai which was established in August 1996. NSDL has 276 depository participants in its network through which it provides depository services to the investors, custodians, issuer companies, stockbrokers and stock exchange.

NSDL would be the second depository to get listed on the exchange after CDSL. Currently, NSE and IDBI bank hold 24% and 30% stake in the company. It is expected that IPO size might be of Rs. 1000 and the promoters might sell up to 30% stake in the company.

4. Barbeque Nation

Barbeque Nation is one of the fastest-growing casual dining restaurant chains in India. Barbeque Nation was originally incorporated as Sanchi Hotels Private Limited on October 13, 2006, at Indore, Madhya Pradesh by one of its promoters. Barbeque Nation has around 138 outlets across India and 7 outlets in the UAE, Oman, and Malaysia.

The IPO might comprise an OFS of 98,22,947 shares and a fresh issue of Rs. 275 crore as per the draft papers filed with the SEBI. It is expected that the IPO size will be approximately Rs. 1000 crore to Rs. 1200 crore and will be managed by IIFL Securities, Axis Capital, Ambit Capital and SBI Capital Markets.

In CY we saw there was a high demand for good IPO such as Happiest Minds, Mazagaon Dock and Burger Kings. It is expected the demand will boost further next year in the fundamentally sound IPO. We suggest the investors keep an eye on quality companies and bet for them in the IPO.

We all have some desires in life and we work hard to fulfill them at any cost, sometimes it takes less time to achieve them. But how it can be done, you cannot plant money on trees we all need to work to earn.

But human nature desires keep on increasing with the span of time and along with desires earning should need to be increased. In this time of inflation, an individual always thought of how to save his money from unnecessary expenditure, but in this is life anything can happen which makes a difference in a very small time.

One should plan everything in a systematic manner where the unplanned event won't harm his earnings. Though still some of us take more time to decide what can be done to avoid all such events. Many often we never discuss how we can plan our money to invest in such a manner where regular earning can be generated along with we will be able to face inflation too.

Our parents and grandparents always suggested investing in those traditional instruments which take a lot of time to grow and sometimes it is hard to keep them with us. But at last, we need to follow what our mind says.

" I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful" Warren Buffet.

One should be ready to invest when the market is down and come out when it's on highs.

Benefits of Investing in the Stock Market

Here are some important benefits we get when we invest in the stock market.

To beat Inflation:

The stock market investment will give long term benefits which prevent our wealth from the impact of inflation.

Higher Liquidity:

As compare to other financial instruments buying & selling of stocks are easier and in a convenient manner.

Higher Returns:

When the economy is on a growing stage, earnings of the corporate also increased, therefore if purchased any good quality company, benefits are there in terms of quality returns.

Acquiring Ownership in Business:

It is not easy to start any business which we think of, but just because we like it we can become a partial owner of that. After purchasing shares of any of our favorite businesses we get the right to vote and we become a partial owner of it.

Dividend Income:

Along with the growth in the share prices companies also providing additional benefits in the form of dividends which is actually a part of sharing from the profit that the company earns in a financial year.

सप्ताह के अंत मे डॉलर इंडेक्स मे निचले स्तरों से उछाल आने के कारण कीमती धातुओं मे ऊपरी स्तरों पर बिकवाली का दबाव बनता दिखा लेकिन सप्ताह मे सोना बढ़त के साथ बंद हुआ है। सोने के भाव सप्ताह मे 2 प्रतिशत तेज़ हुए जबकि चाँदी के भाव 0.5 प्रतिशत की मामुली गिरावट पर रहे है।

अमेरिकी कांग्रेस की तरफ से जल्द ही तीसरा कोरोना वायरस राहत पैकेज आने की उम्मीद मे कीमती धातुओं के भाव को सपोर्ट मिला हुआ है। मुद्रास्फीति बढ़ने पर अधिक पैसा छापना हमेशा कीमती धातुओं की कीमतों को बढ़ाने के लिए एक प्रमुख घटक रहा है।

फेडरल रिजर्व द्वारा महामारी से प्रभावित अर्थव्यवस्था की मदद के लिए और अधिक बॉन्ड खरीदने के कदम, कीमती धातुओं के लिए सकारात्मक है। अमेरिका से राहत पैकेज मिलने की उम्मीद मे निवेशकों द्वारा कीमती धातुओं मे निवेश का रुझान बरक़रार है।

अमेरिकी फेडरल बैंक के प्रति माह कम से कम 80 बिलियन डॉलर और प्रति माह 40 बिलियन डॉलर की एजेंसी बंधक-समर्थित प्रतिभूति खरीदने के लिए फेड का निर्णय, अमेरिकियों को अधिकतम रोज़गार और अर्थव्यवस्था को स्थिरता प्रदान करने के लिए है। डॉलर इंडेक्स मे लगातार गिरावट जारी रहने से रुपय मे मजबूती बनी हुई है जिससे घरेलु वायदा बाजार मे सोने की कीमतों मे ऊपरी स्तरों पर दबाव देखा गया है।

आगामी सम्भावना:

कीमती धातुओं के फंडामेंटल मजबूत है लेकिन इस सप्ताह क्रिसमस हॉलिडे के चलते कीमतों मे ऊपरी स्तरों पर दबाव रह सकता है। कॉमेक्स वायदा सोने मे 1900 डॉलर पर प्रतिरोध है और 1850 डॉलर पर सपोर्ट है। फरवरी घरेलु वायदा सोने मे 50700 रुपय पर प्रतिरोध और 49000 रुपय पर सपोर्ट है। चाँदी मे भी ऊपरी स्तरों पर दबाव रहने सम्भावना है। और इसमें 67000 रुपय पर सपोर्ट तथा 68500 पर प्रतिरोध है।

Nifty & Sensex are rejoicing at a new all-time for the sixth consecutive week on the back of global liquidity.

Wow! It was the seventh consecutive week when the Indian equity market ended with gain whereas it was a sixth consecutive week where Nifty and Sensex ended at new heights. Nifty hits high of 13772 whereas Sensex hit a high of 47026 and they both ended with a weekly gain of around 2%. If we talk about last week’s outperformer then Pharma and IT sector lead the rally where the Nifty Pharma index gained 3.21% and the Nifty IT index gained 2.61%.

The most important question is what is propelling such a stellar rally in the market. So the answer in one word is “liquidity”. Yes, it is the liquidity that is causing rally across all asset classes whether it is Equity, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Metal, and even Bitcoin which has crossed the $20000 mark for the first time in history.

There was a US fed meeting last week where they kept interest rates unchanged which is near to zero and raised US GDP forecast to 4.2% from 4% but the main outcome of the meeting was the speech of Fed chairman Jerome Powell where he says that interest rates will continue to remain low and Fed will continue its bond-buying program to infuse liquidity in the system which is the reason for bullish trend got further momentum.

If we analyze the data then FIIs who are the main drivers of this rally bought Rs. 11804Cr while DIIs are still in the selling mode who sold Rs. 11023cr last week.

If we talk about the F&O data then FIIs’ long exposure in Index future stands at 68% vs 77% last week while PCR is trading at 1.62 level which is a comfortable level but once it had reached to 1.89 marks last week that’s why we saw a profit booking in the first half of Friday’s trading session.

What the Technical Chart Says:

Nifty is in strong bullish momentum but 13770-13820 is an immediate resistance zone where it can see some supply pressure above this 13873/13985 will be the next resistance levels. On the downside 13650 will be an immediate and key support point because below 13650, there will risk of profit booking towards 20-DMA of 13300 where 13500 would be an intermediate support level.

Banknifty is facing resistance in supply zone of 30800-31000 where 30200-30000 is an immediate and critical demand zone; below this, there will be a risk of any serious profit booking where 29000 will be the next important support level while if it manages to take out 31000 levels then we can expect a rally towards 31500/32000 levels.

Important cues for the Next Week:

• There is news in the media about a 7926 cr fraud by a Hyderabad-based firm through a Bank consortium led by Canara Bank. It will be important to see how the market will react to this news especially banking stocks.
• The market is waiting for the third package from the US government.
• FIIs’ behavior will remain key for the market direction as they are driving this bull run.
• Covid19 cases and vaccine-related news will continue to impact the stock market.

Crude oil price is trading at a nine-month high after declining in last week US crude inventory data and showing optimistic views over the coronavirus relief package in the US. However, upside movement is controlled due to the increase in Gasoline Inventory and lower fuel demand.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures shined by 25 cents, 0.46%, from $47.62 to $ 47.84 a barrel. Brent Crude Future rose by 32 cents, or 0.63%, from %50.76 to $51.08. Both benchmarks are trading near nine months high, which is high near early march.

Also, on Wednesday the US Fed announces that the interest rate will remain unchanged, which is 0.25% and in addition adds a stimulus package to boost the relief in Coronavirus and unemployment.

At the same time due to a boost in logistics and e-commerce driven trucking and transportation diesel consumption increased, which is signalling a positive strength to the petroleum market. Higher diesel prices are adding more profits for refineries from processing a barrel of light crude to fuel.

Meanwhile, the oil market outlook is mixed as increased gasoline inventory and lower fuel demand is showing some pressure, while at the same time declining US crude inventory and stimulus relief are adding positive strength in the market.

Similarly, on a technical chart MCX Crude Oil price has shifted above the 138.2% Fibonacci Retracement price extension level 3479 and 100 days SMA’s level 3476, which will act as immediate support levels for the counter. An indicator RSI(14) is moving above level 60, which has witnessed bullish sentiments in the counter for the short term. On the other hand, the price may face resistance near 3750-3770, which is above near 200 points from CMP, which means crude oil price has more upside strength till 3700.

Financials of a company are always complex terms which are not easily understandable. They are the actual report card of a company that represents the performance every year. Sometimes results are good sometimes results are bad. For an individual, it is very essential to under these complex figures because the future growth depends on these current numbers only, just like our marks define our progress. Every year this report card shows different results, sometimes good, bad average, or below average.

Every business faces various situations throughout the year and tries to adopt the changes for its survival. But how a common individual understands this as they only understand what a company shows. For example, a company in its quarterly results declares a growth of 10% but still has a loss in revenue. For an individual, growth attracts but still concerns about the revenue. Which makes it complex for him to understand should he invest in the company or not.

A common person with zero knowledge of analyzing the financial statements only looks at the growth factor.

Some Common Points to Check Company's Health

Nowadays many financial websites are available which helps to make this complexity easier, but still one should look deep into it Because this financial data can be easily manipulated. So, one should look into some common points to check the company's health just to make sure it is worth putting money into it or not.

Earnings

One should check the earnings of the company comparing it with its last quarter earnings and then based on year on year, maybe one can find some quarters are good some are bad but on a yearly basis, the company would reflect a true picture. Earnings should be from its main business not from any other operations.

Controlled Expenses

When a person is analyzing earnings, one should monitor the expenses too Because in business expenses are also an important part, If a company is earning more than it's expenses then that's a favorable condition, But if even after earnings are improving still expenses are more than it’s not a favorable situation for the company.

Debt

A businessman for expansion of his business took some long-term loans just to make availability of funds would go in the flow. And the most important part is that one should manage that ratio in an ideal manner if the debts of the company are constantly rising against its earnings and most of the part of earning are indulge in paying its debt then one should stay away from that kind of companies.

Availability of Cash

A most important point to check out what a company is doing with its profit, which means are they reinvesting it back into the business which makes a company rich in assets & low in the cash balance, low cash balance shows the business is not sustainable. A company requires a healthy amount of cash balance in its bank if in case anything uncertain happens the company should be in a position to face it.